{"id":338431,"date":"2024-08-04T08:40:39","date_gmt":"2024-08-04T06:40:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=338431"},"modified":"2024-08-04T08:40:43","modified_gmt":"2024-08-04T06:40:43","slug":"the-energy-transition-aint-happening-green-economy-in-retreat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=338431","title":{"rendered":"The Energy Transition Ain\u2019t Happening: \u201cGreen\u201d Economy in Retreat"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Manhattan Contrarian<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Francis Menton<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As mentioned in my recent post from July 20<\/a>, there are many data points gradually accumulating as to the lack of progress toward the so-called \u201cgreen\u201d economy. It has long been clear to people who think about it that the energy transition to \u201cnet zero\u201d is a fantasy that will not occur. But the question remains of exactly how the mania will come to an end. Will the net zero fantasies of the climate cultists proceed at full speed until they crash into a wall of physical reality (e.g., blackouts)? Or instead will these fantasies gradually retreat as governments respond to voter pressure over costs and convenience, and as investors pull back as it becomes clear that projects cannot succeed financially?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A July 30 piece from John Miltimore of the American Institute for Economic Research supports the second alternative. The title is \u201cWhy the \u2018Green Economy\u2019 Is Suddenly in Retreat\u2014in EU, US, and on Wall Street.\u201d<\/a> <\/strong>Meanwhile New York, at least for the moment, remains hell-bent on moving toward a full-on crash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Miltimore\u2019s piece collects data from multiple sources \u2014 notably the recent EU elections, EU regulatory changes, and actions of major U.S. investors. The most significant item in the piece relates to the withdrawal of several of the largest U.S. fund managers from something called Climate Action 100+<\/a>. Climate Action 100+ describes itself as \u201can investor-led initiative to ensure the world\u2019s largest corporate greenhouse gas emitters take appropriate action on climate change in order to mitigate financial risk and to maximize the long-term value of assets.\u201d<\/em> But it seems that in recent months some of the biggest investors have decided to change strategy. J.P. Morgan Chase and State Street have \u201cpulled all funds\u201d<\/em> from Climate Action 100+ commitments, while their even larger colleague Black Rock \u201creduced its holdings and scaled back its ties to the group.\u201d <\/em>Miltimore cites a New York Times article from February<\/a> quantifying the various withdrawals: \u201cAll told, the moves amount to a nearly $14 trillion exit from an organization meant to marshal Wall Street\u2019s clout to expand the climate agenda.\u201d <\/em>$14 trillion is a big number in anybody\u2019s book.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the European front, Miltimore cites the results of the EU parliamentary elections in June together with various regulatory roll-backs both before and after those elections. He (fairly) describes the parliamentary election results as a \u201cgreenlash\u201d against various Green parties, and particularly notes the disastrous result for the German Greens: \u201cIn Germany, the core country of the European green movement, support for the Greens plunged from 20.5 percent in 2019 to 12 percent.\u201d<\/em> He then collects a list of various climate-related regulatory initiatives that have either stalled or gotten rescinded in the EU, including: new restrictions on the use of pesticides; proposed bans on PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances); restrictions on new industrial emission, (which ended up getting relaxed on industries and tweaked to exclude cattle farms altogether); and a new deforestation law. Meanwhile, efforts in various countries to ban combustion vehicles, restrict heating of swimming pools, and require electric heating of homes have led to serious popular push-back (if not yet to rescission of the regulations).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My comment is that much of Europe \u2014 particularly the UK and Germany \u2014 has already gone past the point where further significant emissions reductions can be achieved at reasonable cost. Further efforts to increase the percentage of \u201crenewables\u201d in electricity generation will lead to rapidly accelerating price increases. A reckoning can only be avoided by politicians backing off existing mandates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New York remains well behind Europe in actually implementing the energy transition fantasy. Our Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, mandating the transition, was enacted in 2019, with the first significant deadline (70% of electricity generation from \u201crenewables\u201d) set for 2030. In 2019, 2030 seemed so far away. Now in 2024 we are at a point where, to meet the deadline, most to all of the facilities needed to achieve the \u201c70 by 30\u201d target would have to be under construction; but almost none of them are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My July 26 post<\/a> featured a Report<\/a> that I co-authored that warns New Yorkers not to convert to electric heat until the politicians show that they have a credible plan to provide the necessary electricity. Even as my co-authors and I were writing that Report, our Public Service Commission was putting together its own Report (the \u201cClean Energy Standard Biennial Review\u201d) (Item 30 on this PSC Docket)<\/a>. Here is a summary from PBS<\/a>. Key quote:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New York is expected to ramp up renewable energy production in the coming years, but it\u2019s unlikely to meet a key climate target, according to an official review released last week. The state\u2019s climate law, passed in 2019, mandates that New York obtain 70% of its electricity from renewable sources like wind and solar by 2030, which would significantly help curb the state\u2019s climate-warming emissions. However, New York will likely have generated only enough renewable energy to meet around 45% of its electricity needs by the end of the decade, falling far short of its commitment, according to the review by the Department of Public Service and the state energy authority.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even the 45% figure cited there is a fantasy, and consists mostly of a power plant at Niagara Falls that pre-existed all of this energy transition claptrap. So far all of our politicians are in a state of denial. The only slight concession to reality is some talk of maybe postponing the 2030 deadline a few years, such as to 2033. The fact is that they will be no closer to meeting the 70% target in 2033 than they will be in 2030, and in fact it will never be met because (as pointed out in my Report) they need \u201cdispatchable emissions free resources\u201d that don\u2019t exist and won\u2019t exist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So at least for now New York is racing forward to try to crash into the wall of reality at full speed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As mentioned in my recent post from July 20, there are many data points gradually accumulating as to the lack of progress toward the so-called \u201cgreen\u201d economy. It has long been clear to people who think about it that the energy transition to \u201cnet zero\u201d is a fantasy that will not occur. But the question remains of exactly how the mania will come to an end. Will the net zero fantasies of the climate cultists proceed at full speed until they crash into a wall of physical reality (e.g., blackouts)? Or instead will these fantasies gradually retreat as governments respond to voter pressure over costs and convenience, and as investors pull back as it becomes clear that projects cannot succeed financially?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":338434,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691829975,691827134,691818618,691829976,691818154],"class_list":{"0":"post-338431","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-green-economy-2","9":"tag-climate-action-100","10":"tag-energy-transition","11":"tag-green-parties","12":"tag-net-zero","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/mfrack_realistic_photo_of_solar_energy_market_75b1638c-1ab3-402a-8600-63cc6da72bc5.webp?fit=1456%2C816&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1q2z","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":376199,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=376199","url_meta":{"origin":338431,"position":0},"title":"Airbus\u2019s Hydrogen Fantasy Crash Lands","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/04\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"For years, Airbus held a front-row seat in the theater of climate virtue signaling. With grand fanfare and a hefty \u20ac1.5 billion injection from French taxpayers during COVID-era bailouts, the European aerospace titan promised a hydrogen-powered, zero-emission aircraft by 2035. The project was christened as nothing less than \u201chistoric\u201d by\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Airbus\"","block_context":{"text":"Airbus","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=airbus"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-558.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-558.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-558.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-558.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":377914,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=377914","url_meta":{"origin":338431,"position":1},"title":"Net Zero Fades As the Deluded Cling to Its Fantasy","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The grand vision of \u201cNet Zero\u201d initiatives \u2013 by which emissions of carbon dioxide magically balance with expensive and futile capture and storage systems \u2013 have long been sold as the redemption arc for humanity\u2019s profligate modern ways. Yet, like a poorly scripted dystopian thriller, the holes in this plot\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"\u201cGreen\u201d hydrogen\"","block_context":{"text":"\u201cGreen\u201d hydrogen","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=green-hydrogen-3"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/OIG-79.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/OIG-79.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/OIG-79.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/OIG-79.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":334735,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=334735","url_meta":{"origin":338431,"position":2},"title":"Climate \u201cCommunicators\u201d Discover the Best Way to Persuade Voters is to Lie to Them","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/06\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"This is a hilarious X (formerly Twitter) thread on a presentation about \u201cmessaging over climate\u201d.","rel":"","context":"In \"clean energy\"","block_context":{"text":"clean energy","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=clean-energy"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":361955,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=361955","url_meta":{"origin":338431,"position":3},"title":"The Global Net Zero Financial Cartel, Falling Apart","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Less than three weeks ago, on December 23, in a post on optimism about the potential demise of the green energy fantasy, I took note that two of the largest U.S. banks had just quit something called the \u201cNet Zero Banking Alliance.\u201d The two were Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"cartels of financial institutions\"","block_context":{"text":"cartels of financial institutions","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=cartels-of-financial-institutions"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/00Screenshot-2025-01-13-183514-1.png?fit=1027%2C1023&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/00Screenshot-2025-01-13-183514-1.png?fit=1027%2C1023&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/00Screenshot-2025-01-13-183514-1.png?fit=1027%2C1023&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/00Screenshot-2025-01-13-183514-1.png?fit=1027%2C1023&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":378632,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=378632","url_meta":{"origin":338431,"position":4},"title":"As The Federal Government Abandons The Climate Fantasy, New York Doubles Down","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"16\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The first 100+ days of the second Trump administration (it\u2019s now actually 113 days) have seen a near total abandonment of the fantasy that this one country\u2019s government can change the weather and \u201csave the planet\u201d by suppressing use of hydrocarbon fuels and impoverishing the people. 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