{"id":338182,"date":"2024-08-01T09:55:51","date_gmt":"2024-08-01T07:55:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=338182"},"modified":"2024-08-01T09:55:53","modified_gmt":"2024-08-01T07:55:53","slug":"how-close-is-our-planet-to-suffering-the-most-catastrophic-effects-of-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=338182","title":{"rendered":"\u201cHow close is our planet to suffering the most catastrophic effects of climate change?\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essay by<\/strong> Eric Worrall<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat\u2019s the big question we\u2019re all trying to pin down,\u201d Professor Matthew England from UNSW told 9news.com.au.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

How close is our planet to suffering the most catastrophic effects of climate change?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Daniel Jeffrey<\/a> 12:34pm Jul 30, 2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How many years until we can\u2019t stop climate change?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rather than talking about whether climate change can be stopped it\u2019s a bit more helpful to look at key \u201ctipping points\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c(These) include ice sheet collapse, permafrost thaw, ocean deoxygenation, ocean acidification, the die-back of the Amazon rainforest, and changes in ocean circulation, such as the slowdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation,\u201d UNSW Climate Change Research Centre director Katrin Meissner told 9news.com.au.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So how far away are we from hitting them?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat\u2019s the big question we\u2019re all trying to pin down,\u201d Professor Matthew England from UNSW told 9news.com.au.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn a way, that\u2019s the biggest unknown we have. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s safe to say we know these tipping points exist. What we know less about is how close to the tipping points we are. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSome people say we\u2019re already, for example, past a tipping point for the Greenland ice sheet.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOn timescales that are relevant to humans, none of the effects we see right now can be reversed, not even those that are not related to tipping points,\u201d Meissner says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey can only stay the way they are or get worse.\ufeff\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026Read more:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0https:\/\/www.9news.com.au\/national\/climate-change-progress-how-long-until-climate-change-is-irreversible\/87a22a09-2420-44af-b243-f60280531766<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The big question I\u2019d like to pin down is whether these people are actually practicing science.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In science prediction is king \u2013 if your theory doesn\u2019t make testable predictions, it\u2019s not scientific.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Falsifiability<\/strong> (or refutability<\/strong>) is a deductive<\/a> standard of evaluation of scientific theories and hypotheses, introduced by the philosopher of science<\/a> Karl Popper<\/a> in his book The Logic of Scientific Discovery<\/a><\/em> (1934).[B]<\/a><\/sup> A theory<\/a> or hypothesis<\/a> is falsifiable<\/strong> (or refutable<\/strong>) if it can be logically<\/em> contradicted by an empirical test<\/a>.Read more: https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Falsifiability<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

A statement like all the ice caps will one day melt \u2013 the paleo climate history of Earth is full of periods when the polar ice caps melted. For much of Earth\u2019s history there were no polar ice caps, by paleo-climate standards today\u2019s world is experiencing a period of extreme cold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NOAA;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Striking during the time period known as the Pleistocene Epoch, this ice age started about 2.6 million years ago and lasted until roughly 11,000 years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like all the others, the most recent ice age brought a series of glacial advances and retreats. In fact, we are technically still in an ice age. We\u2019re just living out our lives during an interglacial.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026Read more:\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/climate-qa\/whats-coldest-earths-ever-been<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

But a statement like \u201cThey can only stay the way they are or get worse.\u201d implies things are getting worse \u2013 but doesn\u2019t give us a way to falsify this hypothesis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In my opinion making predictions which are not testable in a very fundamental way violates the basic principles of science. If your prediction of imminent catastrophe does not have a firm timetable, if it cannot be falsified with a scientific test, then it\u2019s not science.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A prediction like \u201cthe ice caps will melt by 2030, and this will catastrophically inundate 100 billion dollars worth of realestate\u201d, this would be a testable prediction. All we have to do is wait until 2030, then point and laugh<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More importantly we could use such predictions as a yardstick to measure the comparative value of proposed climate action. Should people living at higher elevations be taxed a trillion dollars, to pay for the mitigation of $100 billion of problems which only affect wealthy, high income lowlands? Perhaps the cities allegedly at risk should decide for themselves how credible such predictions are, and pay their own climate adaption bills.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

But a statement like \u201cThey can only stay the way they are or get worse.\u201d implies things are getting worse \u2013 but doesn\u2019t give us a way to falsify this hypothesis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":338185,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819134,691818056,691818895],"class_list":{"0":"post-338182","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-alarmism","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-sea-ice","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0panic-wallpaper-6-743320.webp?fit=1600%2C1000&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1pYy","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":250039,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=250039","url_meta":{"origin":338182,"position":0},"title":"Multiple Outlets Admit \u201cCatastrophe\u201d Narrative is Counterproductive","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"28\/03\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"After the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\u2019s (IPCC) latest Synthesis Report, multiple media outlets cautioned their peers against leaning too far into the catastrophe narrative, as it might be counterproductive for climate policy and, perhaps, inaccurate too.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1207.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1207.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1207.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1207.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1207.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":238340,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=238340","url_meta":{"origin":338182,"position":1},"title":"Washington Post: \u201cLess warming, but worse impacts on the planet\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/01\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"In other words, we shall never convince most of the core cadre of climate believers. 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