{"id":337665,"date":"2024-07-26T18:49:57","date_gmt":"2024-07-26T16:49:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=337665"},"modified":"2024-07-26T18:49:59","modified_gmt":"2024-07-26T16:49:59","slug":"electrification-without-the-infrastructure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=337665","title":{"rendered":"Electrification Without the Infrastructure"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Jonathan Lesser<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As state and federal policies mandate the electrification of virtually all end uses to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels. For example, 18 states have adopted California\u2019s Advanced Clear Car II rules requiring increasing percentages of new vehicle sales to be EVs, reaching 100% for the 2035 model year. In 2019, New York City enacted Local Law 97<\/a>, which requires all residential buildings larger than 25,000 square feet to convert to electricity by 2035. Other states, such as New Jersey seek to convert all residential heating to electricity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Together, mandates for electric vehicles (EVs) and electrification of space and water heat will likely double<\/a> electricity consumption and peak demand. Coupled with policies that mandate supplying the nation\u2019s electricity with zero-emissions resources, notably intermittent wind and solar power, not only will electricity prices continue to increase but the ability to meet consumers\u2019 increased demand will become more problematic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One would assume that mandates requiring consumers to switch to electricity would recognize the need for the additional infrastructure needed to meet increased demand. One would be wrong. Not just the additional generating resources to replace the coal and natural gas plants being shuttered, but also the new transmission lines, transformers, and upgraded distribution lines that will be needed to handle the increased loads, especially when demand peaks, such as in the early evening hours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That infrastructure will be costly. The infrastructure<\/a> needed for an all-EV future alone will likely cost between$2 and $4 trillion. Additional infrastructure to handle increased demand from switching space and water heat to electric heat pumps, as policymakers have proposed, will drive costs even higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The OPEC oil embargoes of the 1970s clearly demonstrated the link between energy prices and economic growth. By increasing the cost to produce most goods and services, the embargoes exacerbated inflation and caused the U.S. economy to fall into recession. The same relationship holds for electricity, especially as electricity becomes the \u201cfuel\u201d for more end uses: higher electric prices mean reduced economic growth, leading to a lower standard of living and greater economic hardship for consumers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among the nation\u2019s electric grid operators, the twin policies of forcing greater electrification and requiring it to be met primarily with intermittent wind and solar generation are creating concerns<\/a> that reliability will suffer, leading to widescale blackouts. For example, the New York Independent System Operator estimates<\/a> that it will need almost 30,000 MW \u2013 roughly the size of 30 nuclear plants \u2013 of \u201cDispatchable Emissions-free Resources\u201d by 2030. Although NYISO states that DEFRs are \u201cnot yet available on a commercial scale,\u201d in fact, they don\u2019t exist. Assuming a non-existent generating technology will be invented, commercialized, and deployed on a large scale in just six years is a technological and economic fantasy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hence, to address the lack of needed electric infrastructure, instead policymakers plan to restrict access to the electricity they have decreed consumers must use. The idea is to \u201cmanage\u201d electricity demand rather than build the infrastructure necessary to allow consumers access to the electricity they need when they need it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For residential customers the mechanisms to do so include time-of-use pricing, akin to the \u201csurge\u201d pricing used by Uber, which raises prices when demand is greatest; and direct load control, whereby utilities control when and how much consumers can use their large electric-consuming appliances. Home EV chargers will be the largest electricity users for many households and as they proliferate, they will impose the greatest demand on local grids. Another idea is for local utilities to use EVs as resources \u2013 draining EV batteries when the utility requires additional electricity to meet demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For large commercial and industrial customers, it includes interruptible contracts, whereby the local utility or grid operator can shut off the customer\u2019s electricity for a specified duration in exchange for a lower electricity price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Electricity consumption can be \u201cmanaged\u201d or even reduced by restricting consumers\u2019 access to it or by charging prohibitively high prices when they most want that access. But doing so has a real economic cost, which policymakers have ignored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The result will be greater consumer inconvenience, higher costs, lower economic growth, and greater economic hardship. While some environmentalists may consider such an outcome a \u201cfeature\u201d and not a \u201cbug,\u201d presumably most consumers will not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jonathan Lesser is a senior fellow with the National Center for Energy Analytics<\/a> and the president of Continental Economics. This article is adapted from a forthcoming report on electric planning and infrastructure.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article was originally published by RealClearEnergy and made available via RealClearWire.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As state and federal policies mandate the electrification of virtually all end uses to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels. For example, 18 states have adopted California\u2019s Advanced Clear Car II rules requiring increasing percentages of new vehicle sales to be EVs, reaching 100% for the 2035 model year. In 2019, New York City enacted Local Law 97, which requires all residential buildings larger than 25,000 square feet to convert to electricity by 2035. Other states, such as New Jersey seek to convert all residential heating to electricity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":337667,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819240,691821977,691818656,691818128],"class_list":{"0":"post-337665","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-electric-grid","9":"tag-electric-vehicles-evs","10":"tag-electricity","11":"tag-energy","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0electricity-pylon.webp?fit=1920%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1pQd","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":272429,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272429","url_meta":{"origin":337665,"position":0},"title":"New York State Advanced Clean\u00a0Cars","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"I believe that the majority of New Yorkers are unaware of the ramifications of regulations implementing control programs for the\u00a0Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act\u00a0(Climate Act) emission reduction mandates.\u00a0","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate action\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate action","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-action"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0shutterstock_1082414501.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0shutterstock_1082414501.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0shutterstock_1082414501.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0shutterstock_1082414501.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0shutterstock_1082414501.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":379390,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=379390","url_meta":{"origin":337665,"position":1},"title":"Vermont Hits Brakes on EV Mandate: Admits Tech and Infrastructure Aren\u2019t Ready","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"22\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Another state discovers California-style mandates are not workable given the current technologies and infrastructure.","rel":"","context":"In \"electric vehicle (EV)\"","block_context":{"text":"electric vehicle (EV)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=electric-vehicle-ev"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/OIG4-10.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/OIG4-10.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/OIG4-10.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/OIG4-10.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":325123,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=325123","url_meta":{"origin":337665,"position":2},"title":"Biden subsidizes Carmageddon","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/05\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Biden administration is pushing extremely costly policies that encourage the adoption of Low Carbon Fuel Standards and force the production of electric vehicles under the guise of reducing carbon emissions. 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