{"id":337557,"date":"2024-07-25T16:15:27","date_gmt":"2024-07-25T14:15:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=337557"},"modified":"2024-07-25T16:15:30","modified_gmt":"2024-07-25T14:15:30","slug":"japanese-scientist-concludes-ipcc-is-using-erroneous-parameters-and-climate-sensitivities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=337557","title":{"rendered":"Japanese Scientist Concludes IPCC Is Using \u201cErroneous\u201d Parameters And Climate Sensitivities"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NoTricksZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0P Gosselin<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

History of the AGW narrative of the IPCC<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Kyoji Kimoto<\/strong>, kyoji@mirane.co.jp<\/a>
Independent climate researcher<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Manabe\u2019s model studies debunked by Newell (1979)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The anthropogenic global warming (AGW) scare was created in part by Japanese scientist Syukuro Manabe using a one dimensional radiative-convective model (1DRCM) having no ocean (1964\/1967). He obtained a no-feedback climate sensitivity of 1.3\u00b0C for doubling of CO2<\/sub> using the fixed lapse rate assumption of 6.5\u00b0C\/km and a radiative forcing of 4(W\/m2<\/sup>) at the tropopause, which was further enlarged to 2.4\u00b0C with a water vapor feedback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eminent meteorologist R. Newell from MIT criticized Manabe\u2019s model lacking in ocean cooling. He obtained a No-feedback climate sensitivity of 0.03\u00b0C for a doubling of CO2<\/sub>\u00a0with a thermal inertia of 30 (W\/m2<\/sup>) per 1\u00b0C for the surface waters of the ocean using a surface radiative forcing of 1(W\/m2<\/sup>) to incorporate the IR spectra overlap between CO2<\/sub>\u00a0and water vapor.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Syukuro Manabe<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The department of Energy & Dr. R. Cess, however, killed Newell\u2019s ideas to promote nuclear reactors in a difficult time due to the Three Mile Island nuclear accident in 1979.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Manabe continued his model studies to enlarge climate sensitivity (CS) for a doubling of CO2<\/sub> with introducing various feed backs (FBs) as follows, which is the theoretical basis of IPCC\u2019s AGW narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Fig. 1 History of the CS for 2xCO2<\/sub>\u00a0with model studies by Manabe & IPCC<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Cess\u2019s erroneous calculation of the Planck feedback parameter<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Cess (1976, 1989) expressed the outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) with equation (1) based on the old energy budget of the earth as shown by Fig. 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

He obtained a Planck feedback parameter0\u00a0<\/sub>of -3.3(W\/m2<\/sup>)\/C with equation (2), giving a No-feedback CS of 1.2\u00b0C using a radiative forcing of 4W\/m2<\/sup>\u00a0for a doubling of CO2<\/sub>\u00a0at the tropopause as follows:<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Cess\u2019s Planck feedback parameter is used in all GCMs for the IPCC ARs with a slight decrease of the radiative forcing from 4 (W\/m2) to 3.7 (W\/m2) for a doubling of CO2 by IPCC TAR (2000).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Fig. 3 Feedback parameters of 14 GCMs for the IPCC AR4 by Soden (2006)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Cess\u2019s equation (1) is physically wrong<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Cess did not know the atmospheric window because he was caught by the old energy budget of the earth (see Fig.2).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The OLR is expressed by equation (5) based on a modern energy budget of the earth as shown by Fig.4<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OLR= Fu<\/sub> (Tu<\/sub>) (83%) + Fw<\/sub> (Ts<\/sub>) (17%)                                             (5)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Equation (5) means the upper troposphere temperature Tu<\/sub> is increased as much as ~1\u00b0C with CO2<\/sub> doubling instead of the surface temperature Ts<\/sub>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Comparison of no-feedback climate sensitivities<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The following list shows the no-feedback climate sensitivities for a doubling of CO2<\/sub> in the literature:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Ramanathan (1979) 0.2\u00b0C based on the Stefan-Boltzmann law<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Newell (1979) 0.03\u00b0C based on the ocean thermal inertia of 30 (W\/m2<\/sup>)\/C<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Idso (1980) less than 0.26\u00b0C based on the natural experiments<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Ramanathan (1981) 0.17\u00b0C based on the Stefan-Boltzmann law<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Idso (1998) 0.1\u00b0C based on the 10 natural experiments<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Kimoto (2015) 0.15\u00b0C based on the Stefan-Boltzmann law<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Manabe (1964\/1967) 1.3\u00b0C based on the 1DRCM having no ocean<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Cess (1976) 1.2\u00b0C based on a calculation with a mathematical error<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Hansen (1981) 1.2\u00b0C based on Manabe\u2019s 1DRCM<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Schlesinger (1986) 1.3\u00b0C based on Manabe\u2019s 1DRCM<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Schlesinger (1986) 1.2\u00b0C with a trick concealing Cess\u2019s mathematical error<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Conclusion<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    All green policy is nonsense because it depends on IPCC\u2019s claim that the surface temperature Ts<\/sub> is increased as much as 3\u00b0C for CO2<\/sub> doubling utilizing an erroneous Plank feedback parameter0 <\/sub>of -3.21(W\/m2<\/sup>)\/C from Cess\u2019s mathematical error.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Paris climate agreement reads as follows: \u201cTo keep the rise in mean global temperature to well below 2\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably limit the increase to 1.5\u00b0C.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This is based on IPCC\u2019s erroneous climate sensitivity of 3\u00b0C for doubling of CO2<\/sub> discussed above. Therefore the Paris climate agreement is nonsense, though it governs the world politics now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    (References)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Cess, R.D., An appraisal of atmospheric feedback mechanisms employing zonal climatology, J. Atmospheric Sciences, 1976, 33, 1831-1843.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Cess, R.D., Potter, G.L., Blanchet, J.P., Boer, G.J., Ghan, S.J., Kiehl, J.T., Le Treut, H., Li, Z.X., Liang, X.Z., Mitchell, J.F.B., Morcrette, J.J., Randall, D.A., Riches, M.R., Roeckner, E., Schlese, U., Slingo, A., Taylor, K.E., Washington, W.M., Wetherald, R.T. and Yagai, I., Interpretation of cloud-climate feedback as produced by 14 atmospheric general circulation models, Science, 1989, 245, 513-516.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Hansen, J., Johnson, D., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S., Lee, P., Rind, D. and Russell, G., Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, Science 1981, 213, 957-966.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Idso, S. B., The climatological significance of a doubling of Earth\u2019s atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, Science 1980, 207,1462-1463.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Idso, S. B., CO2-induced global warming: a sceptic\u2019s view of potential climate change,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Climate Research,1998, Vol.10, 69-82.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Kimoto, K., On the confusion of Planck feedback parameters, Energy & Environment, 2009, Vol.7, 1057-1066.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Kimoto, K., Will coal save Japan and the world?, Energy & Environment, 2015, 26, 1055~1067.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Manabe, S. and Strickler, R.F., Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a convective adjustment, J. Atmospheric Sciences, 1964, 21, 361~385.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R.T., Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity,  J. Atmospheric Sciences, 1967, 24, 241-259.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Manabe, S and Wetherald, R.T., The effects of doubling the CO2<\/sub> concentration on the climate of a general circulation model, J. Atmospheric Sciences, 1975, 32, 3~15.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Newell, R.E. and Dopplick, T.G., Questions concerning the possible influence of anthropogenic CO2<\/sub> on atmospheric temperature, J. Applied Meteorology, 1979, 18, 822-825.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Ramanathan, V., et al., J. Geophysical Research, 84, 4949-4958 (1979)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Ramanathan, V., The role of ocean-atmosphere interactions in the CO2<\/sub> climate problem, J. Atmospheric Sciences, 1981, 38, 918-930.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Ramanathan, V., The role of earth radiation budget studies in climate and general circulation research, J. Geophysical Research,1987, 92, 4075-4095.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Schlesinger, M.E., Equilibrium and transient climatic warming induced by increased atmospheric CO2<\/sub>, Climate Dynamics, 1986, 1, 35-51.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Soden, B.J. and Held, I.M., An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. J. Climate, 2006, 19, 3354-3360.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The anthropogenic global warming (AGW) scare was created in part by Japanese scientist Syukuro Manabe using a one dimensional radiative-convective model (1DRCM) having no ocean (1964\/1967). He obtained a no-feedback climate sensitivity of 1.3\u00b0C for doubling of CO2\u00a0using the fixed lapse rate assumption of 6.5\u00b0C\/km and a radiative forcing of 4(W\/m2) at the tropopause, which was further enlarged to 2.4\u00b0C with a water vapor feedback.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":337570,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691829847,691818076,691821642,691829845,691829846,691829848,691819657],"class_list":{"0":"post-337557","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-sensitivities","9":"tag-co2","10":"tag-ipcc-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change","11":"tag-kyoji-kimoto","12":"tag-model-studies","13":"tag-syukuro-manabe","14":"tag-water-vapor","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-629.png?fit=1024%2C415&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1pOt","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":361169,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=361169","url_meta":{"origin":337557,"position":0},"title":"Japanese Scientist: The IPCC\u2019s Climate Models Are Fundamentally Flawed, Use False Assumptions","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"There is no theoretical basis for the Net Zero policy based on the man-made climate change narrative of the IPCC. It comes from the lack in knowledge of the atmospheric window of the energy budget of the earth\u00a0by modelers.","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0FxCdYhFaUAApgUm.jpg?fit=1200%2C849&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0FxCdYhFaUAApgUm.jpg?fit=1200%2C849&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0FxCdYhFaUAApgUm.jpg?fit=1200%2C849&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0FxCdYhFaUAApgUm.jpg?fit=1200%2C849&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0FxCdYhFaUAApgUm.jpg?fit=1200%2C849&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":332218,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=332218","url_meta":{"origin":337557,"position":1},"title":"The \u2018Climate Emergency\u2019 is a Myth, Says Nobel Prize Winner John Clauser. Here\u2019s Why He\u2019s Right","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/06\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In a recent lecture, Nobel Laureate physicist John Clauser exposed how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models and analyses, which are relied upon by politicians and activists to support claims of a \u2018climate crisis\u2019, do not meet basic standards of scientific enquiry. Clauser received his Nobel prize in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0dr.-John-Clauser.jpg?fit=1024%2C700&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0dr.-John-Clauser.jpg?fit=1024%2C700&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0dr.-John-Clauser.jpg?fit=1024%2C700&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0dr.-John-Clauser.jpg?fit=1024%2C700&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":355289,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=355289","url_meta":{"origin":337557,"position":2},"title":"Climate Models, Clouds, OLR, and ECS","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/12\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"It is now clear, at least to me, that modern climate models make many critical assumptions that are poorly supported and sometimes conflict with observations. This is an attempt to explain some of these problems and how they developed over time. It is long past time for the \u201cconsensus\u201d to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0scream2.jpg?fit=1000%2C558&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0scream2.jpg?fit=1000%2C558&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0scream2.jpg?fit=1000%2C558&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0scream2.jpg?fit=1000%2C558&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":336401,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=336401","url_meta":{"origin":337557,"position":3},"title":"Seminal 1967 Paper Introducing CO2 \u2018Radiative Forcing\u2019 Is Based On Assumptive Imaginary-World Modeling","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/07\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"A new study comprehensively eviscerates a 57-year-old modeling paper upon which nearly the entirety of the IPCC\u2019s CO2-drives-climate paradigm is based.","rel":"","context":"In \"1967 Paper\"","block_context":{"text":"1967 Paper","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=1967-paper"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0istockphoto-1301752836-1024x1024-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0istockphoto-1301752836-1024x1024-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0istockphoto-1301752836-1024x1024-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0istockphoto-1301752836-1024x1024-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":369299,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=369299","url_meta":{"origin":337557,"position":4},"title":"Beyond CO\u2082: Unraveling the Roles of Energy, Water Vapor, and Convection in Earth\u2019s Atmosphere","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/03\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Fundamentally the entire man-made CO2\u00a0global warming concept, boils down to the interaction of energy and matter in Earth\u2019s atmosphere.\u00a0The only reason that CO2\u00a0and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) are special is that they absorb most of the radiation emitted by Earth\u2019s surface. 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