{"id":337190,"date":"2024-07-22T09:52:11","date_gmt":"2024-07-22T07:52:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=337190"},"modified":"2024-07-22T09:52:13","modified_gmt":"2024-07-22T07:52:13","slug":"help-wanted-storyline-developer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=337190","title":{"rendered":"Help Wanted:\u00a0 Storyline Developer"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opinion by Kip Hansen<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the spirit of co-operation, I\u2019d like to help publicize the effort of Ed \u201cShow Your Stripes<\/a>\u201d Hawkins<\/strong>, a climate crisis hawk<\/a> at University of Reading in his search for  \u201ca motivated researcher to develop storylines of extreme weather events, including their attribution.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

You see, the first part of the job is to develop storylines of extreme weather events.   You might think that his just means \u201cmake up stories\u201d  or maybe \u201cinvent Just-So stories<\/a>\u201d for extreme weather events, then blaming them on Climate Change.     You might be right. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Extreme Weather Event Storylines<\/a> are important for the types of climate science done in Hawkins\u2019 department at University of Reading \u2013 supplying quotable storylines blaming climate change for extreme weather events to The Guardian<\/em> and other media gets the University and Hawkins  in the news and helps bring in research funds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This Post-doc will be guided by a technique made-up by Hawkins himself:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis project will develop a reanalysis-based approach<\/a> to translate observed historical and recent extreme weather events into different climates to quantitatively describe how those weather events and their impacts would be different in warmer or cooler \u2018counter-factual\u2019 worlds.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oh, yes, the \u201creanalysis-based approach\u201d is to be based on Hawkins et al. 2023:  \u201cESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world\u201d<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note:  \u201cEarth System Dynamics  [ESD]<\/a> \u2013 An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s a sample:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cA new reanalysis-based approach is proposed to examine how reconstructions of extreme weather events differ in warmer or cooler counter-factual worlds. This approach offers a novel way to <\/em>develop plausible storylines for some types of extreme event that other methods may not be suitable for. As a proof of concept, a reanalysis of a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 is translated into a warmer world where it produces higher wind speeds and increased rainfall, suggesting that this storm would be more damaging if it occurred today rather than 120 years ago.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

and<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhenever a severe weather event occurs with harmful impacts in a particular region, it is often asked by disaster responders, recovery planners, politicians, and journalists whether climate change caused or affected the event. The harmful impacts are caused by the unusual weather, but climate change may have made the weather event more likely, more severe, or both. In those cases, the harmful impacts may be partly or even mostly due to the change in climate. In some cases, the worst consequences may be due to the vulnerability or exposure of the local population or ecosystems, or due to a combination of many other factors.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This not-so-scientific approach only seeks to \u201cdevelop plausible<\/u> storylines<\/strong>\u201d \u2013 in short, just something that the general public, ignorant as they are as to the real causes of weather and climate, will be willing to swallow without question \u2013 you see, the storyline just needs to be  plausible:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Plausible \u2014 that\u2019s Hawkins\u2019 word, not mine.  The storylines they want are not even intended to be scientifically valid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Readers might want to read the proof of concept <\/em>example in the paper\u2026a masterpiece of model fiddling, cherry-picking multiple-model-runs output for the<\/em> run that supports one\u2019s hypothesis and the unholy hubris involved with the pretense that climate models of the past, present or future output single, definitive and true representations of moment-in-time regional single-factor weather features.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, hey, the position pays well:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Salary: \u00a333,966 \u2013 \u00a344,263 per annum <\/strong>($44,000 to $57,000)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Only those lacking scientific integrity and having flexible moral fiber need apply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author\u2019s Comment:<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let me supply the \u201cend snarcasm \u201d tag here:  \u201c\/snarc\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

There, I hope you are satisfied.  Sometimes I get a \u201clittle testy\u201d and it just kinda boils over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Honestly, I laughed out loud when I read the following line in Hawkins\u2019 paper where the authors admit:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis approach offers a novel way to develop plausible storylines for some types of extreme event that other methods may not be suitable for.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

My apologies to some that might be offended and to some others, not.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the spirit of co-operation, I\u2019d like to help publicize the effort of Ed \u201cShow Your Stripes\u201d Hawkins, a climate crisis hawk at University of Reading in his search for \u201ca motivated researcher to develop storylines of extreme weather events, including their attribution.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":337195,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691829784,691822868],"class_list":{"0":"post-337190","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-ed-show-your-stripes-hawkins","10":"tag-extreme-weather-events","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0Screenshot-2024-07-22-095045.png?fit=1173%2C613&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1pIy","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":337606,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=337606","url_meta":{"origin":337190,"position":0},"title":"University of Reading Advertise For Climate\u00a0Storyteller","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/07\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s little wonder that people don\u2019t trust climate scientists!","rel":"","context":"In \"climate scientists\"","block_context":{"text":"climate scientists","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-scientists"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0wp7812828.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0wp7812828.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0wp7812828.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0wp7812828.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0wp7812828.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":200244,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=200244","url_meta":{"origin":337190,"position":1},"title":"My New Improved Sceptics ‘Version of Ed Hawkins ‘Stripes","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/05\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Actually, I made two In a break from normal programming, I would like to present a humble artistic offering. 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