{"id":337086,"date":"2024-07-20T16:05:22","date_gmt":"2024-07-20T14:05:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=337086"},"modified":"2024-07-20T16:05:24","modified_gmt":"2024-07-20T14:05:24","slug":"intro-to-climate-fallacies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=337086","title":{"rendered":"Intro to Climate\u00a0Fallacies"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"531\" data-attachment-id=\"337115\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=337115\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1396%2C1025&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1396,1025\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2quote-star-trek-scotty\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=723%2C531&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?resize=723%2C531&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-337115\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?resize=1024%2C752&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?resize=300%2C220&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?resize=768%2C564&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?resize=1200%2C881&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?w=1396&amp;ssl=1 1396w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/rclutz.com\/2024\/07\/18\/intro-to-climate-fallacies\/\">Science Matters <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/rclutz.com\/author\/ronaldrc\/\">Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"400\" height=\"400\" data-attachment-id=\"337088\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=337088\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-501.png?fit=400%2C400&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"400,400\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-501.png?fit=400%2C400&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-501.png?resize=400%2C400&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-337088\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-501.png?w=400&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-501.png?resize=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-501.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-501.png?resize=200%2C200&amp;ssl=1 200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-501.png?resize=60%2C60&amp;ssl=1 60w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First an example of how classical thought fallacies derail discussion from any search for meaning. H\/T Jim Rose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"687\" height=\"1024\" data-attachment-id=\"337090\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=337090\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-502.png?fit=1080%2C1610&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1080,1610\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-502.png?fit=687%2C1024&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-502.png?resize=687%2C1024&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-337090\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-502.png?resize=687%2C1024&amp;ssl=1 687w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-502.png?resize=201%2C300&amp;ssl=1 201w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-502.png?resize=768%2C1145&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-502.png?resize=1030%2C1536&amp;ssl=1 1030w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-502.png?w=1080&amp;ssl=1 1080w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 687px) 100vw, 687px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then I took the liberty to change the discussion topic to climate change, by inserting typical claims heard in that context.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"687\" height=\"1024\" data-attachment-id=\"337092\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=337092\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-503.png?fit=1080%2C1610&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1080,1610\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-503.png?fit=687%2C1024&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-503.png?resize=687%2C1024&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-337092\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-503.png?resize=687%2C1024&amp;ssl=1 687w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-503.png?resize=201%2C300&amp;ssl=1 201w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-503.png?resize=768%2C1145&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-503.png?resize=1030%2C1536&amp;ssl=1 1030w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-503.png?w=1080&amp;ssl=1 1080w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 687px) 100vw, 687px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Below is a previous post taking a deeper dive into the fallacies that have plagued global warming\/climate change for decades<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Background Post Climatism is a Logic Fail<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Two fallacies in particular ensure meaningless public discussion about climate \u201ccrisis\u201d or \u201cemergency.\u201d H\/T to Terry Oldberg for comments and writings prompting me to post on this topic.<a href=\"https:\/\/rclutz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/logical-fallacies-climate-example.png\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" data-attachment-id=\"337094\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=337094\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-504.png?fit=1024%2C576&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1024,576\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-504.png?fit=723%2C407&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-504.png?resize=723%2C407&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-337094\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-504.png?w=1024&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-504.png?resize=300%2C169&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-504.png?resize=768%2C432&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One corruption is the numerous times climate claims include fallacies of Equivocation. For instance, \u201cclimate change\u201d can mean all observed events in nature, but as defined by IPCC all are 100% caused by human activities.\u00a0 Similarly, forecasts from climate models are proclaimed to be \u201cpredictions\u201d of future disasters, but renamed \u201cprojections\u201d in disclaimers against legal liability.\u00a0 And so on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" data-attachment-id=\"337095\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=337095\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-505.png?fit=1024%2C576&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1024,576\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-505.png?fit=723%2C407&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-505.png?resize=723%2C407&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-337095\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-505.png?w=1024&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-505.png?resize=300%2C169&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-505.png?resize=768%2C432&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A second error in the argument is the Fallacy of Misplaced Concreteness, AKA Reification. This involves mistaking an abstraction for something tangible and real in time and space. We often see this in both spoken and written communications. It can take several forms:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2666 Confusing a word with the thing to which it refers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2666 Confusing an image with the reality it represents<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2666 Confusing an idea with something observed to be happening<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Examples of Equivocation and Reification from the World of Climate Alarm<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cSeeing the wildfires, floods and storms,&nbsp;<strong>Mother Nature is not happy with us<\/strong>&nbsp;failing to recognize the challenges facing us.\u201d&nbsp;<strong>\u2013 Nancy Pelosi<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mother Nature\u2019 is a philosophical construct and has no feelings about people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cThis was the moment when the rise of<strong>&nbsp;the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal<\/strong>&nbsp;\u2026\u201d<\/em><br><em><strong>\u2013 Barack Obama<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ocean and the planet do not respond to someone winning a political party nomination. Nor does a planet experience human sickness and healing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>\u201cIf something has never happened before,<\/strong>&nbsp;we are generally safe in<strong>&nbsp;assuming it is not going to happen<\/strong>&nbsp;in the future, but the exceptions can kill you, and&nbsp;<strong>climate change is one of those exceptions<\/strong>.\u201d<strong>&nbsp;\u2013 Al Gore<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The future is not knowable, and can only be a matter of speculation and opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>\u201cThe planet is warming because of<\/strong>&nbsp;the growing level of&nbsp;<strong>greenhouse gas emissions from human activity.<\/strong>&nbsp;If this trend continues, truly&nbsp;<strong>catastrophic consequences are likely<\/strong>&nbsp;to ensue. \u201c<strong>\u2013 Malcolm Turnbull<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Temperature is an intrinsic property of an object, so temperature of \u201cthe planet\u201d cannot be measured. The likelihood of catastrophic consequences is unknowable. Humans are blamed as guilty by association.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cAnybody who doesn\u2019t see the impact of climate change is really, and I would say, myopic. They don\u2019t see the reality.&nbsp;<strong>It\u2019s so evident that we are destroying Mother Earth<\/strong>.&nbsp;<strong>\u201c\u2013 Juan Manuel Santos<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cClimate change\u201d is an abstraction anyone can fill with subjective content. Efforts to safeguard the environment are real, successful and ignored in the rush to alarm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>\u201cClimate change, if unchecked, is an urgent threat<\/strong>&nbsp;to health, food supplies, biodiversity, and livelihoods across the globe.\u201d<strong>&nbsp;\u2013 John F. Kerry<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To the abstraction \u201cClimate Change\u201d is added abstract \u201cthreats\u201d and abstract means of \u201cchecking Climate Change.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c<strong>Climate change is<\/strong>&nbsp;the most severe problem that we are facing today,&nbsp;<strong>more serious even than the threat of terrorism.\u201d -David King<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Instances of people killed and injured by terrorists are reported daily and are a matter of record, while problems from Climate Change are hypothetical<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"340\" data-attachment-id=\"337096\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=337096\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-506.png?fit=850%2C400&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"850,400\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-506.png?fit=723%2C340&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-506.png?resize=723%2C340&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-337096\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-506.png?w=850&amp;ssl=1 850w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-506.png?resize=300%2C141&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-506.png?resize=768%2C361&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>Corollary: Reality is also that which doesn\u2019t happen, no matter how much we expect it to.<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Climate Models Are Built on Fallacies<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"642\" data-attachment-id=\"337099\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=337099\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-507.png?fit=734%2C652&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"734,652\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-507.png?fit=723%2C642&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-507.png?resize=723%2C642&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-337099\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-507.png?w=734&amp;ssl=1 734w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-507.png?resize=300%2C266&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A previous post&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/rclutz.wordpress.com\/2016\/05\/28\/cameleon-climate-models\/\"><strong>Chameleon Climate Models<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/a>described the general issue of whether a model belongs on the bookshelf (theoretically useful) or whether it passes real world filters of relevance, thus qualifying as useful for policy considerations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Following an interesting discussion on her blog, Dr. Judith Curry has written an important essay on the usefulness and limitations of climate models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The paper was developed to respond to a request from a group of lawyers wondering how to regard claims based upon climate model outputs. The document is entitled&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/curryja.files.wordpress.com\/2016\/11\/climate-models.pdf\"><strong>Climate Models<\/strong><\/a>&nbsp;and is a great informative read for anyone. Some excerpts that struck me in italics with my bolds and added images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Climate model development has followed a pathway mostly driven by scientific curiosity and computational limitations.&nbsp;<strong>GCMs were originally designed as a tool to help understand how the climate system works.<\/strong>&nbsp;GCMs are used by researchers&nbsp;<strong>to represent aspects of climate that are extremely difficult to observe<\/strong>, experiment with theories in a new way by enabling hitherto infeasible calculations, understand a complex system of equations that would otherwise be impenetrable, and&nbsp;<strong>explore the climate system to identify unexpected outcomes<\/strong>. As such, GCMs are&nbsp;<strong>an important element of climate research.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Climate models are useful tools for conducting scientific research to understand the climate system. However, the above points support the conclusion that&nbsp;<strong>current GCM climate models are not fit for the purpose of attributing the causes of 20th century warming or for predicting<\/strong>&nbsp;global or regional climate change on timescales of decades to centuries, with any high level of confidence.&nbsp;<strong>By extension, GCMs are not fit for the purpose of justifying political policies<\/strong>&nbsp;to fundamentally alter world social, economic and energy systems.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>It is this application of climate model results that fuels the vociferousness<br>of the debate surrounding climate models.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"379\" data-attachment-id=\"337102\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=337102\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-509.png?fit=764%2C400&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"764,400\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-509.png?fit=723%2C379&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-509.png?resize=723%2C379&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-337102\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-509.png?w=764&amp;ssl=1 764w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-509.png?resize=300%2C157&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Evolution of state-of-the-art Climate Models from the mid 70s to the mid 00s. From IPCC (2007)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>The actual equations used in the GCM computer codes are only approximations of<br>the physical processes that occur in the climate system.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>While&nbsp;<strong>some<\/strong>&nbsp;of these approximations are<strong>&nbsp;highly accurate<\/strong>,&nbsp;<strong>others are unavoidably crude.<\/strong>&nbsp;This is because the real&nbsp;<strong>processes<\/strong>&nbsp;they represent are<strong>&nbsp;either poorly understood or too complex<\/strong>&nbsp;to include in the model given the constraints of the computer system. Of the processes that are most important for climate change,<strong>&nbsp;parameterizations related to clouds and precipitation<\/strong>&nbsp;remain the&nbsp;<strong>most challenging,<\/strong>&nbsp;and are the greatest source of disagreement among different GCMs.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>There are literally&nbsp;<strong>thousands of different choices made in the construction of a climate model<\/strong>&nbsp;(e.g. resolution, complexity of the submodels, parameterizations).&nbsp;<strong>Each different set of choices produces a different model having different sensitivities.<\/strong>&nbsp;Further, different modeling&nbsp;<strong>groups have different focal interests<\/strong>, e.g. long paleoclimate simulations, details of ocean circulations, nuances of the interactions between aerosol particles and clouds, the carbon cycle. These different interests focus their limited computational resources on a particular aspect of simulating the climate system, at the expense of others.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"540\" height=\"512\" data-attachment-id=\"337105\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=337105\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-511.png?fit=540%2C512&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"540,512\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-511.png?fit=540%2C512&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-511.png?resize=540%2C512&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-337105\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-511.png?w=540&amp;ssl=1 540w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-511.png?resize=300%2C284&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Overview of the structure of a state-of-the-art climate model. See&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/rclutz.wordpress.com\/2015\/06\/11\/climate-models-explained\/\">Climate Models Explained<\/a>&nbsp;<\/strong>by R.G. Brown<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Human-caused warming depends not only on how much CO2 is added to the atmosphere, but also on&nbsp;<strong>how \u2018sensitive\u2019 the climate is to the increased CO2.<\/strong>&nbsp;Climate sensitivity is defined as the global surface warming that occurs when the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubles. If climate sensitivity is high, then we can expect substantial warming in the coming century as emissions continue to increase. If climate sensitivity is low, then future warming will be substantially lower.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>In GCMs, the equilibrium climate sensitivity is an \u2018emergent property\u2019<br>that is not directly calibrated or tuned.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>While there has been some narrowing of the range of modeled climate sensitivities over time,&nbsp;<strong>models still can be made to yield a wide range of sensitivities<\/strong>&nbsp;by altering model parameterizations. Model versions can be rejected or not, subject to the modelers\u2019 own preconceptions, expectations and biases of the outcome of equilibrium climate sensitivity calculation.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" data-attachment-id=\"337106\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=337106\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-512.png?fit=2560%2C1440&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"2560,1440\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-512.png?fit=723%2C407&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-512.png?resize=723%2C407&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-337106\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-512.png?resize=1024%2C576&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-512.png?resize=300%2C169&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-512.png?resize=768%2C432&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-512.png?resize=1536%2C864&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-512.png?resize=2048%2C1152&amp;ssl=1 2048w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-512.png?resize=1200%2C675&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-512.png?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-512.png?w=2169&amp;ssl=1 2169w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Further, the d<strong>iscrepancy between observational and climate model-based estimates<\/strong>&nbsp;of climate sensitivity is substantial and of significant importance to policymakers. Equilibrium climate sensitivity, and the level of uncertainty in its value, is&nbsp;<strong>a key input into the economic models that drive cost-benefit analyses and estimates of the social cost of carbon.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Variations in climate can be caused by external forcing, such as<\/strong>&nbsp;solar variations, volcanic eruptions or changes in atmospheric composition such as an increase in CO2. Climate<strong>&nbsp;can also change owing to internal processes within the climate system (internal variability).<\/strong>&nbsp;The best known&nbsp;<strong>example<\/strong>&nbsp;of internal climate variability is<strong>&nbsp;El Nino\/La Nina.<\/strong>&nbsp;Modes of decadal to centennial to millennial internal variability arise from the slow circulations in the oceans. As such,<strong>&nbsp;the ocean serves as a \u2018fly wheel\u2019 on the climate system,<\/strong>&nbsp;storing and releasing heat on long timescales and acting to stabilize the climate. As a result of the time lags and storage of heat in the ocean, the climate system is never in equilibrium.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/rclutz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/gmt-warming-events.gif?ssl=1\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/rclutz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/gmt-warming-events.gif?w=723&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19757\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The combination of uncertainty in the transient climate response (sensitivity) and the<strong>&nbsp;uncertainties<\/strong>&nbsp;in the magnitude and phasing of the major modes in natural internal variability&nbsp;<strong>preclude an unambiguous separation of externally forced climate variations from natural internal climate variability.&nbsp;<\/strong>If the climate sensitivity is on the low end of the range of estimates, and natural internal variability is on the strong side of the distribution of climate models, different conclusions are drawn about the relative importance of human causes to the 20th century warming.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"709\" height=\"454\" data-attachment-id=\"337108\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=337108\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-513.png?fit=709%2C454&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"709,454\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-513.png?fit=709%2C454&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-513.png?resize=709%2C454&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-337108\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-513.png?w=709&amp;ssl=1 709w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-513.png?resize=300%2C192&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 100vw, 709px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Figure 5.1. Comparative dynamics of the World Fuel Consumption (WFC) and Global Surface Air Temperature Anomaly (\u0394T), 1861-2000. The thin dashed line represents annual \u0394T, the bold line\u2014its 13-year smoothing, and the line constructed from rectangles\u2014WFC (in millions of tons of nominal fuel) (Klyashtorin and Lyubushin, 2003). Source: Frolov et al. 2009<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Anthropogenic (human-caused) climate change is a theory in which the basic mechanism is well understood, but whose potential magnitude is highly uncertain.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>What does the preceding analysis imply for IPCC\u2019s \u2018extremely likely\u2019 attribution of anthropogenically caused warming since 1950?&nbsp;<strong>Climate models infer that all of the warming since 1950 can be attributed to humans.<\/strong>&nbsp;However, there have been large magnitude variations in global\/hemispheric climate on timescales of 30 years, which are the same duration as the late 20th century warming. The IPCC does not have convincing explanations for previous 30 year periods in the 20th century,&nbsp;<strong>notably the warming 1910-1945 and the grand hiatus 1945-1975.<\/strong>&nbsp;Further, there is a&nbsp;<strong>secular warming trend at least since 1800<\/strong>&nbsp;(and possibly as long as 400 years) that cannot be explained by CO2, and is only partly explained by volcanic eruptions.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"467\" data-attachment-id=\"337109\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=337109\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-514.png?fit=880%2C568&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"880,568\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-514.png?fit=723%2C467&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-514.png?resize=723%2C467&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-337109\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-514.png?w=880&amp;ssl=1 880w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-514.png?resize=300%2C194&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-514.png?resize=768%2C496&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>CO2 relation to Temperature is Inconsistent.<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>Summary<\/em><\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>There is growing&nbsp;<strong>evidence that climate models are running too hot<\/strong>&nbsp;and that climate sensitivity to CO2 is on the lower end of the range provided by the IPCC. Nevertheless, these<strong>&nbsp;lower values of climate sensitivity are not accounted for in IPCC climate model projections<\/strong>&nbsp;of temperature at the end of the 21st century or in estimates of the impact on temperatures of reducing CO2 emissions.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The climate modeling community has been&nbsp;<strong>focused on the response of the climate to increased human caused emissions,<\/strong>&nbsp;and the policy community accepts (either explicitly or implicitly) the results of the 21st century GCM simulations as actual predictions. Hence&nbsp;<strong>we don\u2019t have a good understanding of the relative climate impacts of the above (natural factors)<\/strong>&nbsp;or their potential impacts on the evolution of the 21st century climate.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Footnote:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are a series of posts here which apply reality filters to attest climate models. &nbsp;The first was&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/rclutz.wordpress.com\/2015\/03\/24\/temperatures-according-to-climate-models\/\">Temperatures According to Climate Models<\/a>&nbsp;<\/strong>where both hindcasting and forecasting were seen to be flawed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Others in the Series are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/rclutz.wordpress.com\/2016\/02\/22\/sea-level-rise-just-the-facts\/\">Sea Level Rise: Just the Facts<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/rclutz.wordpress.com\/2016\/05\/06\/arctic-warming-unalarming\/\">Data vs. Models #1: Arctic Warming<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/rclutz.wordpress.com\/2016\/05\/07\/data-vs-models-2-droughts-and-floods\/\">Data vs. Models #2: Droughts and Floods<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/rclutz.wordpress.com\/2016\/05\/09\/data-vs-models-3-disasters\/\">Data vs. Models #3: Disasters<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/rclutz.wordpress.com\/2016\/05\/17\/data-vs-models-4-climates-changing\/\">Data vs. Models #4: Climates Changing<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/rclutz.wordpress.com\/2016\/07\/10\/climate-medicine\/\">Climate Medicine<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/rclutz.wordpress.com\/2016\/07\/26\/climates-dont-start-wars-people-do\/\">Climates Don\u2019t Start Wars, People Do<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"452\" data-attachment-id=\"337111\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=337111\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-515.png?fit=1920%2C1200&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1920,1200\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-515.png?fit=723%2C452&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-515.png?resize=723%2C452&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-337111\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-515.png?resize=1024%2C640&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-515.png?resize=300%2C188&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-515.png?resize=768%2C480&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-515.png?resize=1536%2C960&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-515.png?resize=1200%2C750&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-515.png?w=1920&amp;ssl=1 1920w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-515.png?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>Beware getting sucked into any model, climate or otherwise.<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"658\" height=\"409\" data-attachment-id=\"337113\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=337113\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-517.png?fit=658%2C409&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"658,409\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-517.png?fit=658%2C409&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-517.png?resize=658%2C409&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-337113\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-517.png?w=658&amp;ssl=1 658w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-517.png?resize=300%2C186&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 658px) 100vw, 658px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In GCMs, the equilibrium climate sensitivity is an \u2018emergent property\u2019<br \/>\nthat is not directly calibrated or tuned.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":337115,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691818153,691819743,691821642,691829774],"class_list":{"0":"post-337086","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-climate-models","10":"tag-climate-propaganda","11":"tag-ipcc-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change","12":"tag-post-climatism","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1396%2C1025&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1pGS","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":214509,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=214509","url_meta":{"origin":337086,"position":0},"title":"LIVE: Common Climate Change Fallacies Exposed","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Over the years, political elites in conjunction with the corporate media have zeroed in on certain talking points that scare the public into believing we\u2019re in a climate crisis. These claims are repeated endlessly until people no longer question what they\u2019re told.For this episode of Climate Change Roundtable, Andy Singer,\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-822.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-822.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-822.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-822.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-822.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":279180,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=279180","url_meta":{"origin":337086,"position":1},"title":"IPCC Guilty of \u201cProsecutor\u2019s Fallacy\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/09\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cGiven the observed temperature increase, and the output from their computer simulations of the climate system, the IPCC rejected the idea that less than half the warming was man-made. They said there was less than a 5% chance that this was true.\u201d","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0132c134c61596d9a88b54802908c1d22.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0132c134c61596d9a88b54802908c1d22.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0132c134c61596d9a88b54802908c1d22.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0132c134c61596d9a88b54802908c1d22.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0132c134c61596d9a88b54802908c1d22.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":261574,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=261574","url_meta":{"origin":337086,"position":2},"title":"Where There&#8217;s Smoke There&#8217;s Wildfire&#8230; Is Climate Change to Blame?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/06\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"During the past week, both the mainstream media and politicians chose to push a false narrative in response to the presence of smoke from Canadian wildfires blanketing New York City. In a predictable manner, they attributed this event to climate change without any factual basis.","rel":"","context":"In \"Canadian wildfires\"","block_context":{"text":"Canadian wildfires","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=canadian-wildfires"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Screenshot-2023-06-11-114349.png?fit=930%2C537&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Screenshot-2023-06-11-114349.png?fit=930%2C537&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Screenshot-2023-06-11-114349.png?fit=930%2C537&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Screenshot-2023-06-11-114349.png?fit=930%2C537&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":279162,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=279162","url_meta":{"origin":337086,"position":3},"title":"New Paper Reveals Classic Logical Fallacy In IPCC\u00a0Report","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/09\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The alarmist media bought it at the time, which may well have been the idea.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Modelling\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Modelling","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-modelling"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00FtNyruJWAAIn5-k.jpg?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00FtNyruJWAAIn5-k.jpg?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00FtNyruJWAAIn5-k.jpg?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00FtNyruJWAAIn5-k.jpg?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00FtNyruJWAAIn5-k.jpg?fit=1200%2C674&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":224301,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=224301","url_meta":{"origin":337086,"position":4},"title":"Climatism is a Logic Fail","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/10\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Two fallacies ensure meaningless public discussion about climate \u201ccrisis\u201d or \u201cemergency.\u201d H\/T to Terry Oldberg for comments and writings prompting me to post on this topic. One corruption is the numerous times climate claims include fallacies of Equivocation. For instance, \u201cclimate change\u201d can mean all observed events in nature, but\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-818.png?fit=734%2C652&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-818.png?fit=734%2C652&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-818.png?fit=734%2C652&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-818.png?fit=734%2C652&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":267076,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267076","url_meta":{"origin":337086,"position":5},"title":"Extreme Weather Attribution or Just Sharpshooting in Texas?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/07\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Look out, folks! There\u2019s a new rodeo in town \u2013 one that goes by the name of \u2018Climate Attribution\u2019. It\u2019s got its sights set on\u00a0every extreme weather event that has ever happened, and it\u2019s not shy about taking credit for them either.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Wild-West-Saloon-Sign.jpg?fit=1200%2C848&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Wild-West-Saloon-Sign.jpg?fit=1200%2C848&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Wild-West-Saloon-Sign.jpg?fit=1200%2C848&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Wild-West-Saloon-Sign.jpg?fit=1200%2C848&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Wild-West-Saloon-Sign.jpg?fit=1200%2C848&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/337086","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=337086"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/337086\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":337117,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/337086\/revisions\/337117"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/337115"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=337086"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=337086"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=337086"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}