{"id":336811,"date":"2024-07-18T07:24:47","date_gmt":"2024-07-18T05:24:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=336811"},"modified":"2024-07-18T07:24:50","modified_gmt":"2024-07-18T05:24:50","slug":"storyline-attribution-just-so-stories-about-weather-events","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=336811","title":{"rendered":"Storyline Attribution:\u00a0 \u201cJust so\u2026\u201d stories about Weather Events"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opinion by Kip Hansen<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the last decade or so, there has been an increasing effort to tie every strong or unusual weather event, no matter how local, to Global Climate Change.   This need arose from the inability of the IPCC and its thousands of contributors to actually find, \u201cdetect\u201d is the word they use, the negative effects of Climate Change in the real world, despite over 40 years of endless dire predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You may have seen this before, but I offer it as evidence of the above:<\/p>\n\n\n

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A few notes about AR6 WG1 Chapter 12 Table 12.12: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

1.  ONLY the middle column represents real information:  \u201cAlready Emerged In Historical Period\u201d.  This means that the IPCC has failed to even to detect<\/em><\/strong> increases\/decreases in all the other Climate Impact Drivers <\/em>(see definition at end of essay) which have white boxes in that column.  You must ignore the  \u201cEmerging by\u2026.\u201d Columns \u2013 both are shown as \u201cat Least for RCP8.5\/SSP5-8.5\u201d which is considered by many the now-impossible climate scenario<\/a>. (and here<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2.  The darker colors in the Already Emerged  column indicate that the climate-impact driver has been detected with high confidence \u2013 but any numeral in the box is a caveat as to in what regions.  For instance, \u201cCold Spell\u201d has been detected only in \u201cAustralia, Africa and most of Northern South America\u201d.  Decreases in \u201cLake, river and sea ice\u201d has been detected only for Arctic sea ice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3.  It is interesting to read the list of things (white boxes across all three columns)  that are still not expected<\/em><\/strong> to be found even in 2100 RCP8.5 dystopia-land<\/strong>.   The majority of Climate-impact Drivers (19 out of 33) are not predicted to \u201cemerge\u201d by 2100 even under RCP8.5.  And yet, almost every day, there is a media story telling us that it is already happening and has been \u201ccaused by climate changed\u201d or \u201cintensified or made worse  by climate change\u201d contrary to the IPCC\u2019s AR6.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, today I ask: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Question:<\/u><\/strong>  \u201cWhy do we read that it has been determined by scientists that [some weather event]  was caused or made XX% worse <\/em>by climate change?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Answer:<\/u><\/strong>  Storyline Attribution.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And what might that be, you may ask?   Well, it is my opinion that Storyline Attribution is simply a \u201cJust So\u2026\u201d<\/em> story about the weather used by the climate gang to tie every weather story to global climate change somehow, anyhow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just-so story<\/strong><\/a><\/em> \u2014 \u201ca speculative story or explanation of doubtful or unprovable validity that is put forward to account for the origin of something \u2026 when no verifiable explanation is known\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pielke Jr. wrote last week, in Climate fueled extreme weather, Part 2<\/strong><\/a>:<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c<\/em>The last decade has seen the rise of what is called storyline attribution, which now dominates discussion of every extreme weather event.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A storyline provides a putative causal explanation for the incidence of a particular extreme event that just happened and explains why the event was worse than it otherwise would have been, absent the human influence.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example<\/a>, from just last week:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n