{"id":336700,"date":"2024-07-17T07:46:28","date_gmt":"2024-07-17T05:46:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=336700"},"modified":"2024-07-17T07:46:30","modified_gmt":"2024-07-17T05:46:30","slug":"greens-mistake-fake-chinese-economic-statistics-for-a-climate-triumph","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=336700","title":{"rendered":"Greens mistake Fake Chinese Economic Statistics for a Climate Triumph"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essay by Eric Worrall<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

China is reporting economic growth during a period of falling CO2 emissions \u2013 but this isn\u2019t the first time China has promoted this falsehood.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u2018It\u2019s good news\u2019: Scientists suspect history about to be made in China<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Nick O\u2019Malley<\/a>
JULY 13, 2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For months, the reports came in and climate scientists and analysts pored over the data. Something unfamiliar was happening. It looked a little like good news. Perhaps even something of profound historical significance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ever since the industrial revolution began in the late 18th century, the amount of planetary warming greenhouse gases humans have been pumping into the atmosphere has grown inexorably, causing temperatures to climb dangerously over the past few decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2019, humans pumped 35 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. That number fell by a staggering 6 per cent the following year as COVID crunched industrial production and shut economies. At the time, the fall prompted despair in some climate commentators. Is this what it would take to make a dent in emissions? If so, how could such an outcome ever be achieved in a functioning economy?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it is data from the past few months that is intriguing analysts today. The world\u2019s economy is growing. China\u2019s economy is growing. Yet greenhouse gas emissions appear to have peaked.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some time last year, or perhaps earlier this year, it appears China\u2019s emissions, in particular, reached a high point. If China has peaked, there is good reason to believe global emissions peaked, too. It would mean that some time over the past few months, the stubborn nexus between economic growth and greenhouse gas pollution was snapped, and the 250-year surge in emissions ended.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026Read more:\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/amp.smh.com.au\/environment\/climate-change\/it-s-good-news-scientists-suspect-history-about-to-be-made-in-china-20240709-p5jsbi.html<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

How do we know these claims are likely based on fake statistics? Because this isn\u2019t the first time it has happened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From 2016<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\n

China\u2019s post-coal growth<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ye Qi<\/a>, Nicholas Stern<\/a>, Tong Wu<\/a>, Jiaqi Lu<\/a> & Fergus Green<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nature Geoscience<\/em><\/a> volume 9<\/strong>, pages 564\u2013566 (2016) Cite this article<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Slowing GDP growth, a structural shift away from heavy industry, and more proactive policies on air pollution and clean energy have caused China\u2019s coal use to peak. It seems that economic growth has decoupled from growth in coal consumption.<\/strong>Read more: https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S1462901118308803<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Every few years, China promotes the myth of decoupling, to explain the divergence between their fake economic growth statistics and their CO2 emissions.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guardian Hails Chinese Economic Problems as “Peak Coal” \u2013 Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What actually happened since 2016? Chinese CO2 emissions soared, as soon as their economy recovered from their downturn, and genuine economic growth caught up with their fake growth statistics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s 2023 coal output hits record high \u2013 Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is plenty of supporting evidence the true explanation for falling emissions in 2024 is that China is suffering a severe economic crisis \u2013 they have a debt to GDP ratio of 288% and a collapsing asset price bubble.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

China\u2019s Economic Slump Is Here to Stay<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

BY JAMES H. NOLT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

MARCH 4, 2024 7:00 AM EST<\/p>\n\n\n\n

James H. Nolt is adjunct associate professor of international relations at New York University and author of International Political Economy: The Business of War and Peace<\/em><\/a>. He was founding dean of an international college in Nanjing, China, and for 23 years Senior Fellow at the World Policy Institute in New York.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China is in the midst of a profound economic crisis. Growth rates are flagging as an unsustainable mountain of debt piles up; China\u2019s debt-to-GDP ratio reached a record 288%<\/a> in 2023. But even that eye-popping figure does not capture the uncomfortable fact that much of it was borrowed to buy assets that no longer yield enough income to repay the debt. This is especially true in the housing sector, where sales have fallen by a third<\/a> since the pre-pandemic peak, and new construction is down 60%<\/a>. This is one of the worst housing crashes in the world over the last three decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many Western pundits and politicians view this crisis as a sign of the bankruptcy of China\u2019s leadership and economic system. But it is more akin to the cyclical debt crises that have plagued capitalist countries throughout history. An apt comparison is Japan\u2019s crisis of 1989, which ended decades of high growth and rising asset prices, fueled by a ballooning debt bubble. Japan\u2019s Nikkei stock index peaked in late 1989 and fell almost 80%<\/a> over the next 13 years. Real estate prices fell for two decades<\/a> starting in 1991. Neither of these major asset classes has exceeded the pre-crisis price peak ever since. Japan transitioned<\/a> from being the fastest growing major economy during 1954-73, typically growing over 10% per year, to the slowest, with growth averaging only 1.75% per year from 1981 to 2023. China may be facing similarly prolonged difficulties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bubble is already bursting.<\/strong> Chinese creditors have now scaled back new lending<\/a> and raised<\/a> interest rates, following government guidance announced as the \u201cThree Red Lines.\u201d As the most indebted Chinese bulls go bankrupt<\/a> or panic sell to repay their loans, prices are falling further as their bear counterparts jump back in and buy assets at fire-sale discount prices. That will eventually put a floor on the price collapse but it is also redistributing wealth rapidly from debtors to creditors. Bears feast on the bulls during every crash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026Read more:\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/time.com\/6835935\/china-debt-housing-bubble\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

So the real question is, how could the scientists and public figures quoted by the Sydney Morning Herald be so easily fooled by China once again promoting their transparent emissions decoupling mistruth?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The last time China pulled this stunt was 2016, less than a decade ago. You would think scientists and public figures might bother to do a little research, before accepting Chinese economic growth claims as reliable, and echoing such a transparent communist falsehood.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

China is reporting economic growth during a period of falling CO2 emissions \u2013 but this isn\u2019t the first time China has promoted this falsehood.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":336703,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818341,691829716,691818076,691829715],"class_list":{"0":"post-336700","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-china","9":"tag-chinas-coal","10":"tag-co2","11":"tag-fake-statistics","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0beijing-scaled-1.jpg?fit=2560%2C1703&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1pAE","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":247438,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=247438","url_meta":{"origin":336700,"position":0},"title":"Biden\u2019s 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