{"id":336401,"date":"2024-07-13T15:02:36","date_gmt":"2024-07-13T13:02:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=336401"},"modified":"2024-07-13T15:02:38","modified_gmt":"2024-07-13T13:02:38","slug":"seminal-1967-paper-introducing-co2-radiative-forcing-is-based-on-assumptive-imaginary-world-modeling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=336401","title":{"rendered":"Seminal 1967 Paper Introducing CO2 \u2018Radiative Forcing\u2019 Is Based On Assumptive Imaginary-World Modeling"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Carbon cycle with CO2 dioxide gas exchange process scheme outline concept. Photosynthesis, respiration and transport or factory emissions as biochemical system labeled explanation vector illustration.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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From NoTricksZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Kenneth Richard<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A new study comprehensively eviscerates a 57-year-old modeling paper upon which nearly the entirety of the IPCC\u2019s CO2-drives-climate paradigm is based.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr. Roy Clark has published a new 73-page study<\/a><\/strong> that rips apart the Manabe and Wetherald (1967)<\/a><\/strong> paper (MW67) that effectively hatched the IPCC-popularized concepts of CO2 climate sensitivity, radiative forcing, and positive\/negative feedbacks so as to portray humans as predominantly responsible for climate changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The invalid, error-ridden conceptualization of a Earth land and ocean surface warmed by CO2 radiative forcing is one-dimensional and Flat Earth and assumes constant equilibrium, or perpetually steady states (that do not exist in the real world).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even the most basic of assumptions in MW67 \u2013 that CO2 warms the Earth and ocean as its concentration is increased \u2013 is \u201clargely a mathematical artifact produced by using a highly simplified one-dimensional radiative convective computer model.\u201d CO2 climate sensitivity is but a calculation built on simplification errors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The MW67 model (and the Hansen et al., 1981<\/a><\/strong> paper that expanded it to its present-day form) neglects a host of real-world phenomena.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, evaporation (for the ocean) is ignored. Wind (which modulates evaporation) and waves are ignored. The ocean is assumed to be a flat, one-dimensional object that is predominantly heated by downward infrared radiation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The effects of molecular collisions and turbulence in the troposphere are ignored. Diurnal temperature is ignored. Humidity is assumed to be perpetually constant rather than varying with the solar heating of the surface.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe effects of advection, evaporation, subsurface thermal storage and ocean transport were ignored\u201d in MW67.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The steady state assumption (that was first featured in 1896 by Arrhenius) is not real, as there is \u201cno steady state air column in the real atmosphere and both turbulent and moist convection and subsurface thermal storage have to be included in the time dependent surface energy transfer analysis.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The radiative \u201cperturbation\u201d from a CO2 increase from 280 to 560 ppm could only produce a 0.08 K temperature change over the course of a day using the MW67 radiative transfer model calculations. This variation is too small to detect, and it cannot accumulate over days or seasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simply put, MW67 effectively constructs a set of assumptions about what may only occur in an imaginary-world. And this is the Nobel Prize-winning paper that underpins the modern-day version of climate science.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Image Source:\u00a0Clark, 2024<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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