{"id":335871,"date":"2024-07-08T09:34:45","date_gmt":"2024-07-08T07:34:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=335871"},"modified":"2024-07-08T09:34:47","modified_gmt":"2024-07-08T07:34:47","slug":"cyclone-causes-increase-in-coral-cover-if-you-believe-their-nonsense-number","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=335871","title":{"rendered":"Cyclone Causes Increase in Coral Cover \u2013 If You Believe Their Nonsense Number"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Jennifer Marohasy<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0jennifer<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you believe Bjorn Lomborg, we have record high coral cover and we can fix climate change.  Both are nonsense propositions.  In fact, this last year has been devastating for many reef ecosystems because of weather events that are part of natural climate cycles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the central Great Barrier Reef, we had the double whammy of coral bleaching and Tropical Cyclone Kirrily.   Three reefs (Davis, Chicken and John Brewer) that were included in the recent AIMS\u2019 Long-Term Monitoring Program surveys bore the brunt of Kirrily\u2019s fury that hit as a severe category three before making landfall as a category one.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The basis of most Great Barrier Reef statistics is the survey.\u00a0 Get that wrong and add in an extraordinary amount of hubris \u2013 the type often found amongst academics who concern themselves with climate change \u2013 and we end-up with more lying headlines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There are some major problems with the AIMS\u2019 LTMP as a measure of total coral cover at the Great Barrier Reef:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. It does not consider how the distribution and abundance of corals varies with different reef habitats,<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. It is a perimeter survey unlikely to include habitats with higher percentage coral cover,<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. In not surveying shallower reef habitats, including the reef crest, it cannot measure the true impacts of cyclones or bleaching.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Meanwhile, Peter Ridd has gone to some effort over the last few years to suggest that the health of the Great Barrier Reef can be reduced to a single number representing coral cover based on these LTMP perimeter surveys.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    And his political interest is not actually in this number but in the trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Yet even after John Brewer Reef took a direct hit from Tropical Cyclone Kirrily on 25th<\/sup> January 2024 pummelling much of the crest clean of coral and strewing coral around the reef perimeter, the LTMP registered no significant change in coral cover at this reef<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The latest number for total coral cover at the Great Barrier Reef, as extracted and calculated first by Ridd, and following his lead by Lomborg, include recent surveys of three large reefs in the central regions of the Great Barrier Reef \u2013 Chicken, Davies and John Brewer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Until TC Kirrily these were exceptionally beautiful reefs in warm crystal-clear waters, with the most magnificent corals \u2013 reaching their climax as ecosystems with more than 100 percent coral cover in some places.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    I write more than 100 percent, because these reef crests can be of densely packed corals, competing for space and especially light; corals growing over each other with so many fishes \u2013 crowded, colourful and bustling like little metropolises on top of platforms rising from the sea floor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Then these bustling metropolises were obliterated \u2013 by Tropical Cyclone Kirrily.  And they came to look more like Gaza.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    When I visited these reefs soon after that cyclone, I found that many of the very largest of the plate and branching corals had been picked-up, turned-over and dropped-off the edge of sections of these reefs that rise from the sea floor, sometimes as platforms.  There was coral strewn about their perimeters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Indeed, the entire wall of coral that featured in the short film I made last November about the \u2018Caf\u00e9 Latte Coral\u2019<\/a> at John Brewer Reef that entire wall of coral has collapsed.  It has broken off from the reef crest proper and has fallen seven meters to the perimeter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    As absurd as it might seem, only now is their opportunity for these broken corals to be part of the AIMS\u2019 surveys used by Lomborg and Ridd to claim record cover coral at the Great Barrier Reef.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The LTMP data that these academics rely on is from surveys that are only ever of the perimeter and at a depth of between 6-9 meters \u2013 where so much broken coral landed after TC Kirrily.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    If you believe Bjorn Lomborg, we have record high coral cover and we can fix climate change. Both are nonsense propositions. In fact, this last year has been devastating for many reef ecosystems because of weather events that are part of natural climate cycles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":335872,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691819663,691818101,691818100,691820472],"class_list":{"0":"post-335871","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-coral-cover","10":"tag-cyclones","11":"tag-great-barrier-reef","12":"tag-john-brewer-reef","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0F-P2150129-4.jpg?fit=2048%2C1536&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1pnh","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":337432,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=337432","url_meta":{"origin":335871,"position":0},"title":"He Denies Natural Climate Cycles","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/07\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"When the grass is tall and unruly, it can be difficult to see where you are going and to know what lies beneath.","rel":"","context":"In \"Australia\"","block_context":{"text":"Australia","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=australia"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-579.png?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-579.png?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-579.png?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-579.png?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-579.png?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":212612,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=212612","url_meta":{"origin":335871,"position":1},"title":"Good News About Corals \u2013 As Legislation Introduced to Devastate Farming","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The new government following the \u2018climate change election\u2019 and to \u2018save the Great Barrier Reef\u2019 is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, which is a 15-percentage point increase on Australia\u2019s previous 2030 target. 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