{"id":335557,"date":"2024-07-05T07:20:23","date_gmt":"2024-07-05T05:20:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=335557"},"modified":"2024-07-05T07:20:25","modified_gmt":"2024-07-05T05:20:25","slug":"was-beryl-only-a-cat-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=335557","title":{"rendered":"Was Beryl Only A Cat\u00a04?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019ve now got more data in for Hurricane Beryl, and as we have seen many times recently, it appears that the wind speeds have been grossly overestimated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the official reports, Beryl has sustained winds of 165mph (145kts), and a minimum central pressure of 934mb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But according to the official satellite Dvorak measurements, the wind speeds were well below the warning intensity, around 135kts. On the Saffir Simpson scale, Cat 5s are 137kts and over, so it seems that Beryl was probably a top end Cat 4:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
http:\/\/rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu\/tc_realtime\/archive.asp?product=dgtldvor&storm_identifier=al022024<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As usually happens nowadays, the National Hurricane Center tends to overestimate wind speeds, to be \u201con the safe side\u201d. This may make sense from a public safety point of view, but unfortunately it is these warnings which appear in the media as \u201cactual\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
http:\/\/rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu\/tc_realtime\/about.asp#strmstat<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Further evidence that the windspeeds were overstated is provided by that central pressure of 934mb. In pre-satellite days, winds were estimated from air pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The chart below plots windspeed against pressure for all Atlantic Cat 5s which had Beryl\u2019s air pressure or below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As you would expect, low pressure means high windspeed. Beryl, however, bucks the trend. Five other hurricanes have recorded 165 mph, but all have had much lower central pressure, ranging from 910 to 927mb. And a further six storms have had lower pressure, but only speeds of 160mph:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Below are all of the 165mph ones:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/td>Year<\/strong><\/td>mb<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Cuba<\/strong><\/td>1924<\/strong><\/td>910<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Hattie<\/strong><\/td>1961<\/strong><\/td>914<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Inez<\/strong><\/td>1966<\/strong><\/td>927<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Isabel<\/strong><\/td>2003<\/strong><\/td>915<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Ivan<\/strong><\/td>2004<\/strong><\/td>910<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Matthew<\/strong><\/td>2016<\/strong><\/td>934<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Irma<\/strong><\/td>2023<\/strong><\/td>926<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Beryl<\/strong><\/td>2024<\/strong><\/td>934<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I should also point out that in terms of minimum pressure, Beryl ranks 37th amongst Cat 5s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quite clearly the likes of Cuba, Hattie and Ivan were in a different league to Beryl. It is significant too that Matthew in 2016 has been overstated in exactly the same way as Beryl. This is plainly a new phenomena.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Aftermath of Hurricane Hattie 1961 \u2013 Belize<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I should perhaps make it clear that I accept that modern measurements are the ones that are accurate. But if this is the case, all of the others that have gone before must be underestimated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just to finish, the following describes how Dvorak works:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I make no comment as to the accuracy or reliability of Dvorak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We\u2019ve now got more data in for Hurricane Beryl, and as we have seen many times recently, it appears that the wind speeds have been grossly overestimated.<\/p>\n

According to the official reports, Beryl has sustained winds of 165mph (145kts), and a minimum central pressure of 934mb.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":335568,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-335557","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","9":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0jamaica-beryl-mo_1720097046657_hpMain_16x9.jpg?fit=1600%2C900&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1pid","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":336742,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=336742","url_meta":{"origin":335557,"position":0},"title":"Wrong, Bloomberg, Texas \u201cDeniers\u201d Are Right, Climate Change Had Nothing to Do with Hurricane Beryl","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/17\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Bloomberg recently published an article which said Hurricane Beryl in particular, and other natural disasters which commonly hit the state, are symptoms of climate change, and that Texas\u2019 pro-fossil fuel policies are partly responsible. Bloomberg\u2019s article is wrong, a classic case of blaming the victim, Texas residents, for something that\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Bloomberg\"","block_context":{"text":"Bloomberg","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bloomberg"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/074329432007-20240708-t-173658-z-881980258-rc-2-yq-8-akh-16-v-rtrmadp-3-stormberyl.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/074329432007-20240708-t-173658-z-881980258-rc-2-yq-8-akh-16-v-rtrmadp-3-stormberyl.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/074329432007-20240708-t-173658-z-881980258-rc-2-yq-8-akh-16-v-rtrmadp-3-stormberyl.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/074329432007-20240708-t-173658-z-881980258-rc-2-yq-8-akh-16-v-rtrmadp-3-stormberyl.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/074329432007-20240708-t-173658-z-881980258-rc-2-yq-8-akh-16-v-rtrmadp-3-stormberyl.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":335354,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=335354","url_meta":{"origin":335557,"position":1},"title":"Hurricane Beryl is a natural","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Hurricane Beryl shows what nature can do. Is it a man-made climate change example? NO! The climate is always changing. Man\u2019s input just may come in third in order of importance.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0Hurricane-Beryl-cone-7-1-24.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0Hurricane-Beryl-cone-7-1-24.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0Hurricane-Beryl-cone-7-1-24.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0Hurricane-Beryl-cone-7-1-24.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":335906,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=335906","url_meta":{"origin":335557,"position":2},"title":"Beware how government-sponsored media reports cherry-picked hurricane extremes to push a climate crisis.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"As my local KQED now ignorantly pushes, hurricane Beryl became more dangerous due to climate change. KQED is one of a thousand-plus stations supported by your tax money via the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. CPB receives federal funding from Congress and distributes the vast majority of funds to more than\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0GRrgcU7aUAA7PWs.jpeg?fit=1082%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0GRrgcU7aUAA7PWs.jpeg?fit=1082%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0GRrgcU7aUAA7PWs.jpeg?fit=1082%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0GRrgcU7aUAA7PWs.jpeg?fit=1082%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0GRrgcU7aUAA7PWs.jpeg?fit=1082%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":286272,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=286272","url_meta":{"origin":335557,"position":3},"title":"Hurricane Otis\u2013Cat 5?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/03\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"On Wednesday, Hurricane Otis rapidly developed across the eastern Pacific before\u00a0making landfall near Acapulco in southern Mexico\u00a0as a category 5 hurricane with wind speeds estimated at about 165mph. From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT By Paul Homewood Hurricane Otis has made landfall on the coast of southern Mexico,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Acapulco resort\"","block_context":{"text":"Acapulco resort","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=acapulco-resort"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0-Hurricane-Otis.webp?fit=1200%2C756&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0-Hurricane-Otis.webp?fit=1200%2C756&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0-Hurricane-Otis.webp?fit=1200%2C756&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0-Hurricane-Otis.webp?fit=1200%2C756&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0-Hurricane-Otis.webp?fit=1200%2C756&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":221330,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=221330","url_meta":{"origin":335557,"position":4},"title":"Hurricane Ian","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/29\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Or to put it another way \u2013 if Ian really was a 130 Kt hurricane, many other hurricanes in the past have been grossly underestimated.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1407.png?fit=670%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1407.png?fit=670%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1407.png?fit=670%2C768&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":338797,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=338797","url_meta":{"origin":335557,"position":5},"title":"New EPA Rules Could Dangerously Close Baseload Power Plants","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Recent extreme weather events, such as Hurricane Beryl that left more than two million Texas households and business without electricity for days and then went on to flood parts of the Midwest and New England, has drawn renewed attention to the vulnerabilities of America\u2019s power grids. As climate models predict\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"EPA\"","block_context":{"text":"EPA","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=epa"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0-power-lines.jpeg?fit=1200%2C914&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0-power-lines.jpeg?fit=1200%2C914&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0-power-lines.jpeg?fit=1200%2C914&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0-power-lines.jpeg?fit=1200%2C914&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0-power-lines.jpeg?fit=1200%2C914&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/335557","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=335557"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/335557\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":335569,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/335557\/revisions\/335569"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/335568"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=335557"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=335557"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=335557"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}