{"id":334486,"date":"2024-06-25T13:41:25","date_gmt":"2024-06-25T11:41:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=334486"},"modified":"2024-06-25T13:41:28","modified_gmt":"2024-06-25T11:41:28","slug":"seasonal-renewable-output-fail-bites-australia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=334486","title":{"rendered":"\u201cSeasonal\u201d Renewable Output Fail Bites Australia"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"723\" data-attachment-id=\"334489\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=334489\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/OIG-81.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1024,1024\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"OIG-81\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/OIG-81.jpeg?fit=723%2C723&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/OIG-81.jpeg?resize=723%2C723&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-334489\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/OIG-81.jpeg?w=1024&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/OIG-81.jpeg?resize=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/OIG-81.jpeg?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/OIG-81.jpeg?resize=768%2C768&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/OIG-81.jpeg?resize=800%2C800&amp;ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/OIG-81.jpeg?resize=600%2C600&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/OIG-81.jpeg?resize=400%2C400&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/OIG-81.jpeg?resize=200%2C200&amp;ssl=1 200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/OIG-81.jpeg?resize=450%2C450&amp;ssl=1 450w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/OIG-81.jpeg?resize=60%2C60&amp;ssl=1 60w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/OIG-81.jpeg?resize=550%2C550&amp;ssl=1 550w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2024\/06\/23\/cold-weather-gas-shortages-renewable-output-falls-bite-australia\/\">Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Essay by <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/author\/eworrall1\/\">Eric Worrall<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201c\u2026 seasonal lulls in wind and solar output has led to a big increase in the amount of gas being burnt to produce electricity. \u2026\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>AEMO warns of immediate gas shortfall threat as cold snap, renewable lulls and outages bite<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By energy reporter&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/daniel-mercer\/11547686\">Daniel Mercer<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Posted&nbsp;Thu 20 Jun 2024 at 4:09pmThursday 20 Jun 2024 at 4:09pm,&nbsp;updated&nbsp;Thu 20 Jun 2024 at 6:41pm<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>In short:<\/strong>\u00a0The\u00a0<strong>Australian Energy Market Operator has warned of immediate gas supply risks across south eastern Australian.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The warning comes following increased demand for gas amid a cold snap, lower green power generation and supply problems.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>What\u2019s next?<\/strong>\u00a0AEMO says the risk of\u00a0<strong>supply shortages on peak demand days is likely to stay in place until September 30.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The warning was sparked by a spike in gas demand following&nbsp;<strong>a cold spell, a lack of renewable power in recent weeks and an outage at the Longford gas plant in Victoria<\/strong>&nbsp;\u2013 the biggest source of gas in southern Australia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Combined, the shocks to the system have led to a run on Victoria\u2019s most biggest and most important gas storage facility at Iona, about 230km south-west of Melbourne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>They have also sent the gas market skywards, with prices trading at almost $30 a gigajoule today<\/strong>&nbsp;\u2013 levels last seen during the energy crisis two years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A recent run of cold weather has caused a spike in demand for gas for heating across many of the southern states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time,&nbsp;<strong>seasonal lulls in wind and solar output has led to a big increase in the amount of gas being burnt<\/strong>&nbsp;to produce electricity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026Read more:\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2024-06-20\/aemo-warns-of-immediate-gas-shortage-risks-in-se-australia\/104003166\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2024-06-20\/aemo-warns-of-immediate-gas-shortage-risks-in-se-australia\/104003166<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Reliability risks are increasing according to the AEMO, though the latest report paints a rosy picture of all the investment in renewables which is going to materialise. Any day now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Urgent investment needed for electricity reliability<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">21\/05\/2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AEMO has today published an&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/aemo.com.au\/-\/media\/files\/electricity\/nem\/planning_and_forecasting\/nem_esoo\/2023\/may-2024-update-to-the-2023-electricity-statement-of-opportunities.pdf?la=en&amp;hash=4425365102C8992B13B4671EC9659E0A\">update to the 2023 Electricity Statement of Opportunities<\/a>&nbsp;(ESOO) report, the 10-year reliability outlook for the National Electricity Market (NEM).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The update was triggered due to material changes impacting reliability risks since the 2023 ESOO was published last August, including new commissioning dates for Project EnergyConnect, and&nbsp;<strong>mothballed gas and diesel generators in South Australia.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The addition of approximately 4.6 gigawatts (GW) of new generation and storage projects that have sufficiently advanced was also considered in this ESOO update.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman said the report\u2019s findings again&nbsp;<strong>call for timely investment in projects to generate, store and share electricity to manage reliability risks driven by retiring coal plants.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAustralia\u2019s energy transition is well underway,\u201d Mr Westerman said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIndustry and governments are responding to the reliability risks from retiring coal by investing in new infrastructure to ensure a reliable and secure electricity supply going forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe urgency for the timely delivery of transmission, generation and storage, and use of consumer electricity resources to support the grid, remains to meet consumers\u2019 energy needs,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today\u2019s report forecasts varying reliability gaps in all mainland regions of the NEM over the ESOO outlook period in the ESOO central scenario, which only considers existing, committed<sup>1<\/sup>&nbsp;and anticipated projects<sup>2<\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, this assessment does not include federal or state government energy programs or approximately 280 GW of proposed generation and storage projects in the development pipeline, 4.5 times today\u2019s NEM capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Compared to the 2023 ESOO central scenario,&nbsp;<strong>reliability risks have increased in New South Wales and Victoria from 2024-25 to 2027-28 and increased in South Australia in 2026-27.<\/strong>&nbsp;Due to newly considered generation and storage developments, reliability risks are forecast lower than the 2023 ESOO central scenario towards the end of the horizon in all mainland regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWhile new generation and storage capacity continues to increase, project development and commissioning delays are impacting reliability throughout the horizon,\u201d Mr Westerman said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cReliability improves when considering actionable transmission projects<sup>3<\/sup>&nbsp;\u2013 those listed to proceed as soon as possible in the Draft 2024 Integrated System Plan \u2013 and when forecast grid support from consumer energy resources are applied.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAdding new generation and storage projects through federal and state government programs<sup>4<\/sup>&nbsp; then shows that reliability risks have the potential to be managed within relevant standards over most of the next 10 year horizon,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a result of the reliability gaps forecast, AEMO will tender for Interim Reliability Reserves in New South Wales and Victoria to minimise reliability risks should low reserve conditions emerge over summer 2024-25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the first time, AEMO\u2019s reliability report includes new information on generation and storage locations which have the potential to improve regional reliability risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With further transmission development, including VNI West and HumeLink, this analysis shows the locations in each mainland region that can provide the most reliability benefit through new generation and storage development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The next ESOO will be published in August 2024 in accordance with the National Electricity Rules requirements, using further information from developers and market participant surveys, which feed into the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/aemo.com.au\/energy-systems\/electricity\/national-electricity-market-nem\/nem-forecasting-and-planning\/forecasting-and-planning-data\/generation-information\">Generation Information<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/aemo.com.au\/energy-systems\/electricity\/national-electricity-market-nem\/nem-forecasting-and-planning\/forecasting-and-planning-data\/transmission-augmentation-information\">Transmission Augmentation Information<\/a>&nbsp;files.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026Read more:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/aemo.com.au\/newsroom\/media-release\/urgent-investment-needed-for-electricity-reliability\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/aemo.com.au\/newsroom\/media-release\/urgent-investment-needed-for-electricity-reliability<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oh hangon, wasn\u2019t the current crisis precipitated by a seasonal drop in renewable output? Doesn\u2019t that mean building more renewables wouldn\u2019t help with a similar winter crisis in the future?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If only instead of building lots of useless renewables, our governments had expedited permits for the construction of a few extra major gas plants, instead of running the system into the ground in the name of the energy transition. That way when the first plant suffered outages, the second plant could have increased supply and covered the shortfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of course there are significant political hurdles to overcome to increase gas production on the East Coast of Australia. Gas rich Victoria, one of the states most affected by the shortages, is so anti-resource exploitation that&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.premier.vic.gov.au\/enshrining-victorias-ban-fracking-forever\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">in 2021 Victoria wrote a ban on gas fracking into the state constitution<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gas shortages starting in 2024 were predicted in 2022, when Victoria enshrined a fracking ban in the state constitution. The fireball in the picture below is gas gushing out of a test well which was drilled in Victoria in 2018, in a place where the state government assured us there was no gas.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/SkyNewsAustralia\/posts\/geologist-ian-plimer-told-the-outsiders-that-energy-minister-josh-frydenberg-has\/10155430465321728\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Professor Ian Plimer was called into an episode of \u201cThe Outsiders\u201d<\/a>&nbsp;to identify the mysterious substance gushing out of the ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2022\/07\/19\/victorias-green-zealots-banned-gas-extraction-now-running-out-of-gas\/\">Victoria\u2019s Green Zealots Banned Gas Fracking \u2013 Now Running Out of Gas \u2013 Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oh hangon, wasn\u2019t the current crisis precipitated by a seasonal drop in renewable output? Doesn\u2019t that mean building more renewables wouldn\u2019t help with a similar winter crisis in the future?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":334489,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818216,691829379,691818376,691818728],"class_list":{"0":"post-334486","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-australia","9":"tag-national-electricity-market-nem","10":"tag-natural-gas","11":"tag-wind-and-solar","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/OIG-81.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1p0W","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":329509,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=329509","url_meta":{"origin":334486,"position":0},"title":"Why We Still Need Fossil Fuels, Despite Reuters\u00a0Propaganda","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/05\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Wind farms have been the primary source of electricity in the United Kingdom for the past two consecutive quarters, marking the longest stretch on record that renewable energy has surpassed fossil fuels in U.K. electricity generation.","rel":"","context":"In \"Propaganda\"","block_context":{"text":"Propaganda","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=propaganda"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0fakenews.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0fakenews.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0fakenews.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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power","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=clean-power"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQNLsG1yNn5Of6PB-lrAOFdTd5svra0MrUxyHW4kvTaols_EFZLhaIzc9mHPkzfg3RhqsQ7eZ_9ELa2EEkmLLUJMxzhsyeGOU6m8h0-QPvdSvU8JxNieCdtet9srFhIvklAyNmEN8rvX7zkEpV-RKVzBU0Fk-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQNLsG1yNn5Of6PB-lrAOFdTd5svra0MrUxyHW4kvTaols_EFZLhaIzc9mHPkzfg3RhqsQ7eZ_9ELa2EEkmLLUJMxzhsyeGOU6m8h0-QPvdSvU8JxNieCdtet9srFhIvklAyNmEN8rvX7zkEpV-RKVzBU0Fk-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQNLsG1yNn5Of6PB-lrAOFdTd5svra0MrUxyHW4kvTaols_EFZLhaIzc9mHPkzfg3RhqsQ7eZ_9ELa2EEkmLLUJMxzhsyeGOU6m8h0-QPvdSvU8JxNieCdtet9srFhIvklAyNmEN8rvX7zkEpV-RKVzBU0Fk-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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household energy bills.","rel":"","context":"In \"Australia\"","block_context":{"text":"Australia","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=australia"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-634.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-634.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-634.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-634.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-634.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 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