{"id":334210,"date":"2024-06-23T08:12:22","date_gmt":"2024-06-23T06:12:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=334210"},"modified":"2024-06-23T08:12:24","modified_gmt":"2024-06-23T06:12:24","slug":"in-case-you-think-someone-has-the-answer-to-new-yorks-looming-energy-disaster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=334210","title":{"rendered":"In Case You Think Someone Has The Answer To New York’s Looming Energy Disaster"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Manhattan Contrarian<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

by Francis Menton<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this post last week<\/a>, I took note that New York\u2019s electric grid system operator, NYISO, has recently issued some clear, if muted, warnings of the impossibility of the energy transition mandated by the state\u2019s 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA). In a November 2023 Report<\/a>, NYISO stated (deeply buried at page 52) that \u201cDEFRs are needed to balance intermittent supply with demand,\u201d <\/em>and those DEFRs must be \u201csignificant in capacity.\u201d <\/em>DEFRs are the elusive and not-yet-invented \u201cdispatchable emissions-free resources.\u201d At a conference the following month, NYISO\u2019s VP for System Integration Planning, Zachary Smith, reiterated the need for these DEFRs in large amounts. Smith presented charts quantifying the capacity of DEFRs needed for New York to \u201cbalance\u201d its prospective intermittent wind\/solar supply as something in the range of 30+ GW. 30 GW is close to the peak electricity demand for the entire state, and is approximately equivalent to the existing capacity of New York\u2019s fleet of natural gas plants, all of which are mandated to be closed by 2040.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what is the answer to the great DEFR conundrum? New York\u2019s Public Service Commission, operating from its usual playbook, has initiated a proceeding, under the name Proceeding 15-E-0302<\/a>, to uncover the answer. My New York co-blogger Roger Caiazza<\/a> calls this the \u201cDEFR Proceeding,\u201d although I don\u2019t find the PSC using that name. Everybody gets to submit their brilliant thoughts and ideas. So far there seem to be well over 22,000 items entered in the docket \u2014 more than any human being can ever read.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In just the past few days, some big comments from important players have floated in. On Monday (June 17), a comment appeared on this DEFR docket co-signed by two environmental NGOs, Earth Justice and the Sierra Club<\/a>. These are two of the very biggest, best funded, and most vociferous advocates of the urgent necessity of an immediate energy transition away from fossil fuels. With their hundreds of millions of dollars of annual revenue and scores of staffers, surely these guys must have found the answer to the DEFR conundrum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, incredibly, they have no clue. The basic approach in their Comment is to pooh-pooh the entire idea that large amounts of DEFRs may be needed, on the sole ground that there may be some (unspecified) flaws in the modeling used by NYISO. Their preferred solution is to turn off everybody\u2019s electricity via a central switch when generation drops. Back to the Stone Age!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is their topic sentence:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Commenters are concerned that NYISO\u2019s presentation at the December technical conference overstates the need for dispatchable, emissions-free resources (\u201cDEFRs\u201d) and downplays the value of taking steps in the near term to minimize this gap.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

OK then, if perhaps NYISO has \u201coverstated\u201d the need for these DEFRs, then what is your alternative calculation of the amount of such resources that will be needed, and what are the assumptions that go into that calculation? They don\u2019t provide any of that, not even a rough estimate or guess of any kind. Instead, they seek to discourage and stop any development whatsoever of these DEFRs:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rushing to deploy expensive and untested DEFRs risks committing New York to flawed technologies, as it is unclear at the present time which technologies will emerge as commercially scalable and cost effective, much less which ones of the often talked about DEFRs would actually be emissions free.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

So if there is to be no development or deployment of DEFRs in the next several years \u2014 during which New York is scheduled to close its natural gas plants and electrify both building heat and large numbers of automobiles \u2014 then what do you propose as the way to provide the electricity? Basically, all they would allow is \u201cstorage, wind and solar.\u201d:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rather than picking DEFR technologies to subsidize that may end up being sub-optimal, the DPS should focus on accelerating the build out of storage, solar, and wind, along with other existing methods to minimize the DEFR gap.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If \u201cstorage\u201d is to be the back-up of intermittent wind and solar, how much will you need, and how much will that cost, and will the storage technology be capable of holding charge as long as will be needed? The only answer provided to these questions is a touching hope for some magical results from a tiny and barely-initiated federal program:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deployment of new long duration storage to fill any gap may also become a viable avenue for filling whatever gap remains. In fact, just this April the US Department of Energy disbursed $15 million to advance projects seeking to \u201cenable a long-duration capable (10+ hours) energy storage technology. . . .<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As readers here know, 10 hours of storage is not enough to get through even one long calm winter night. The real storage need to back up wind and solar for an entire year is more like 1000 hours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So it looks like we\u2019ll be resorting to those \u201cother existing methods\u201d for balancing supply and demand to potentially fill the DEFR \u201cgap.\u201d What are those? It turns out that that phrase refers to some combination of hoping for imports from neighboring states (don\u2019t they use coal?) and doing away with the idea that you can have electricity when you want it:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some of these existing methods include but are not limited to improving inter-regional coordination, expanding import capability with inter-regional transmission, expanding intra-regional transmission, <\/em>increasing energy efficiency and mandatory demand response, and incorporating flexibility of large loads if possible.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMandatory demand response\u201d is Maoist-speak for turning off your electricity from central headquarters when the wind isn\u2019t blowing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interestingly, about half of this Comment is then devoted to the issue of potentially developing hydrogen infrastructure as the means to back up a wind\/solar system. Given that these guys are against investigating any other DEFRs, you might think they would be fans of hydrogen. But you would be wrong. In fact, from this Comment you will learn that they echo the Manhattan Contrarian on the many problems of hydrogen:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[P]ipelines constructed specifically to transport hydrogen do not exist in New York. [E]xisting gas pipelines in New York cannot safely transport more than de minimis concentrations of hydrogen, and creating a new pipeline distribution system for hydrogen would incur enormous costs. Leakage of hydrogen is a serious concern. Due to its small molecular size, hydrogen is prone to leakage rates on the order of 1.3-2.8 times greater than methane. . . . Increasing the mileage of pipelines in New York capable of transporting hydrogen also presents significant cost challenges. . . . [H]ydrogen embrittles steel and cast iron pipelines, necessitating a costly replacement of existing pipeline infrastructure to accommodate hydrogen. . . . [E]ven if existing natural gas pipelines could be easily repurposed to transport higher percentages of hydrogen, the amount of energy flowing through the pipelines would be drastically reduced. . . . [S]toring hydrogen presents both cost and feasibility hurdles.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And on and on from there. No known means of generating reliable electricity meets their standards of environmental purity. Although they will only say it in the Orwellian terminology of \u201cdemand response,\u201d these guys are clearly advocating for the end to the idea of electricity whenever you want it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mr. Caiazza has many more detailed thoughts on this Comment at his website here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bottom line: nobody has the answer to how to keep the lights on after the natural gas plants are closed. For now, we continue to careen toward the disaster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In this post last week, I took note that New York\u2019s electric grid system operator, NYISO, has recently issued some clear, if muted, warnings of the impossibility of the energy transition mandated by the state\u2019s 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA). In a November 2023 Report, NYISO stated (deeply buried at page 52) that \u201cDEFRs are needed to balance intermittent supply with demand,\u201d and those DEFRs must be \u201csignificant in capacity.\u201d DEFRs are the elusive and not-yet-invented \u201cdispatchable emissions-free resources.\u201d At a conference the following month, NYISO\u2019s VP for System Integration Planning, Zachary Smith, reiterated the need for these DEFRs in large amounts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":334212,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818128,691818867,691829254,691829340,691823573,691818728],"class_list":{"0":"post-334210","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-energy","9":"tag-new-york","10":"tag-new-york-independent-system-operator-nyiso","11":"tag-roger-caiazza","12":"tag-the-grid","13":"tag-wind-and-solar","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/OIG-21.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1oWu","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":408586,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=408586","url_meta":{"origin":334210,"position":0},"title":"NYISO Weighs in on The New York State Draft Energy Plan","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"16\/10\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"NYISO is the New York Independent System Operator \u2014 the not-for-profit entity created to manage New York State\u2019s electrical grid. Their main job is assuring that there is sufficient electricity generated moment to moment to closely match customer demand. 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the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) released\u00a0Power Trends 2025.\u00a0 This is the NYISO\u2019s annual description of factors influencing New York State\u2019s power grid and wholesale electricity markets.\u00a0 It suggests that there are looming issues with New York\u2019s aspirational net-zero transition plans that must be similar to transition plans\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=department-of-environmental-conservation-dec"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OIG-20.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OIG-20.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, 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post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-456.png?fit=848%2C565&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-456.png?fit=848%2C565&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-456.png?fit=848%2C565&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-456.png?fit=848%2C565&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":245757,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=245757","url_meta":{"origin":334210,"position":4},"title":"New York Independent System Operator Information for Policy Makers","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/02\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The implementation plan for New York\u2019s\u00a0Climate Act \u201cNet Zero\u201d target (85% reduction and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050 is underway.\u00a0","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-850.png?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-850.png?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-850.png?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-850.png?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-850.png?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":352099,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=352099","url_meta":{"origin":334210,"position":5},"title":"New York DEFR Concerns 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