{"id":333097,"date":"2024-06-16T07:56:43","date_gmt":"2024-06-16T05:56:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=333097"},"modified":"2024-06-16T07:56:45","modified_gmt":"2024-06-16T05:56:45","slug":"a-preview-on-some-of-the-new-york-energy-impossibility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=333097","title":{"rendered":"A Preview On Some Of The New York Energy Impossibility"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Manhattan Contrarian<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Francis Menton<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr. Benny Peiser and I have now begun our 2024 GWPF U.S. speaking tour. Yesterday we appeared for an event at the Texas Public Policy Foundation in Austin, Texas. Between in person and online, we understand that over 400 people attended the event. (I believe that video of this event will be posted at some point on the TPPF website<\/a>, but I don\u2019t find it there yet.). Tonight we will be speaking at the 3 West Club, 3 West 51st St. in New York City, at 6 PM.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As mentioned previously in my post two weeks ago announcing tonight\u2019s event<\/a>, the title is \u201cEurope\u2019s Net Zero rebellion, European elections, and the coming U.S. reckoning.\u201d Benny will cover the European piece of the subject matter, while I am taking on the \u201ccoming U.S. reckoning.\u201d I\u2019ll give you here a brief preview to whet your appetite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reason I use the term \u201creckoning\u201d is that people in positions of authority, who have no idea what they are doing, in their zeal to eliminate \u201ccarbon emissions,\u201d have set up mandates and goals that are completely irreconcilable. As a matter of physics or economics or both, the things that have been mandated to occur cannot all be accomplished at the same time, let alone within the time frames specified, or at anything close to affordable cost. Some time soon, a reckoning is inevitable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many examples of the irreconcilability can be cited, both at the federal level and among blue states that have eagerly sought the mantle of \u201cclimate leader\u201d without ever doing even a cursory investigation of feasibility. For this preview I\u2019ll focus on one particular example: the mandates in New York that dispatchable natural gas power plants be closed at the same time that demand on the grid dramatically increases from simultaneous mandates for electric cars and electric building heat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New York has multiple agencies involved in the supposed energy transition. A Climate Action Council, plus an agency called NYSERDA (New York State Energy Research and Development Agency) actively promote the development of wind and solar generators as the wave of the future, without knowing or caring how it will all work. Then there is the New York Independent System Operator, NYISO, that is responsible for making sure that the grid works. NYISO knows full well that the various mandates cannot be achieved simultaneously, but they also recognize that that view is not in favor politically at the moment. So NYISO puts out documents that seem on their face to be saying that everything is fine; but if you read between the lines, you realize that they are sounding the alarm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is NYISO\u2019s document called the \u201c2023-2032 Comprehensive Reliability Plan,\u201d<\/a> issued November 28, 2023. Read it without a skeptical eye, and you might come away at first thinking that all is well, or at least close to it. Phrases like \u201cmeets all currently applicable reliability criteria<\/em> . . .\u201d are sprinkled around. Yes, there are references to things like \u201ca variety of risk factors to the long-term plan,\u201d<\/em> and the possible need to keep some natural gas peaker plants around longer than might be hoped, but that is only \u201cas a last resort,\u201d<\/em> and only until some \u201cpermanent solution\u201d<\/em> is in place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We then come to the following chart, presented at page 6 with little comment. Oh wait, it shows a big drop in \u201cexisting supply\u201d in 2025 \u2014 next year \u2014 due to the forced closure of some of these natural gas plants, and expected demand then being right in the middle of a part of the bar labeled \u201cdeficiency.\u201d That\u2019s rather soon. Oh, it seems that (after this document was issued) they have just delayed the closure of those natural gas plants. Crisis averted, for the moment. Then in 2026 there is an addition to supply, shown in blue, representing the opening of a new transmission line to import hydro power from Quebec. But that\u2019s only about 1 GW of additional capacity, out of 11+ GW of so of peak demand. By 2031, we are back to projected deficiency, which becomes more serious every year \u2014 and could be much larger depending on how fast demand grows with all those new mandates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But the killer is the supposed \u201clong term solution.\u201d You have to get all the way to page 52 to find out that they have no idea what that might be, and even then it is written in code:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With high penetration of renewable intermittent resources, DEFRs are needed to balance intermittent supply with demand. Resources with these characteristics must be significant in capacity. . . .\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDEFRs\u201d? What are those? They are the elusive \u201cDispatchable Emissions-Free Resources.\u201d Just like fossil fuel plants, they can be turned on and off on command to meet demand, but they make no carbon emissions. Voil\u00e0 \u2014 problem solved! Oh, wait \u2014 if such a thing existed, wouldn\u2019t we be using it already?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although they never say it in quite these words, the entire plan post-2030 relies on something that has not yet been invented or deployed at scale. What might it be? Nuclear? That is completely blocked in New York by a hostile political and regulatory environment, and would take at least 15 years to deploy if we started on a crash program today. \u201cGreen\u201d hydrogen? That costs something like 20 to 50 times what natural gas costs, and would require an entire new infrastructure of production facilities, pipelines, and power plants, none of which exists or is under construction or even in a serious planning stage. Batteries? Batteries just to get through one calm night (16 hours) would cost about the same as the entire New York State annual budget. Batteries to be sufficient to provide full back-up to a grid without fossil fuels (500 – 1000 hours of average usage) would cost a multiple of New York\u2019s entire GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So in fact, there is no real plan. You can see New York hitting the wall in that chart. The mandates are in place. We march forward, until we can\u2019t any more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dr. Benny Peiser and I have now begun our 2024 GWPF U.S. speaking tour. Yesterday we appeared for an event at the Texas Public Policy Foundation in Austin, Texas. Between in person and online, we understand that over 400 people attended the event. (I believe that video of this event will be posted at some point on the TPPF website, but I don\u2019t find it there yet.). Tonight we will be speaking at the 3 West Club, 3 West 51st St. in New York City, at 6 PM.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":333101,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691821898,691829032,691818154,691818867,691829237],"class_list":{"0":"post-333097","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-carbon-emissions","9":"tag-european-elections","10":"tag-net-zero","11":"tag-new-york","12":"tag-nyserda-new-york-state-energy-research-and-development-agency","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/2GCX_Fu9XYAATBdF-1.jpeg?fit=1792%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1oEx","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":211885,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=211885","url_meta":{"origin":333097,"position":0},"title":"Official data confirms reef in rude good heath","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"By Paul Homewood From GWPF: Official data released today reveals that Australia\u2019s Great Barrier Reef is in excellent health, with coral cover reaching record levels for the second consecutive year. 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