{"id":332777,"date":"2024-06-13T18:36:39","date_gmt":"2024-06-13T16:36:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=332777"},"modified":"2024-06-13T18:36:42","modified_gmt":"2024-06-13T16:36:42","slug":"new-hudson-bay-sea-ice-modelling-paper-is-more-utterly-useless-fearmongering-about-polar-bears","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=332777","title":{"rendered":"New Hudson Bay sea ice modelling paper is more utterly useless fearmongering about polar bears"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From polarbearscience<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A new collaboration by\u00a0sea ice and polar bear specialists<\/a>\u00a0that\u00a0predicts a catastrophic future<\/a>\u00a0for polar bears in Hudson Bay (Stroeve et al. 2024) can be dismissed as\u00a0yet another<\/a>\u00a0bit of utterly\u00a0useless fearmongering<\/a>\u00a0for two reasons: 1)\u00a0it\u2019s a model<\/a>\u00a0projection that uses\u00a0widely discredited SSP5-8.5 \u201cbusiness as usual\u201d<\/a>\u00a0climate scenarios for its predictions; and 2) it\u2019s based on the\u00a0false premise<\/a>\u00a0that Western and Southern Hudson Bay polar bears have already suffered harm from reduced sea ice blamed on fossil fuel-caused global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The fact that recently-deceased Ian Stirling<\/a> was a prominent co-author should come as no surprise: his irrational promotion of the idea that future \u201cclimate warming\u201d could doom polar bears to near-extinction \u2013 even after recording and publishing evidence to the contrary<\/a><\/em> \u2013 will go down in history as an appalling violation of scientific principles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adding to the dubious validity of the paper: lead author Julienne Stroeve\u2019s 2007 paper predicting summer sea ice decline by 2050 was proven wrong by actual data<\/a> by the time it was published (Stroeve et al. 2007, 2014) and a more recent update failed to foresee the recent 17-year stall in decline<\/a>. And co-author Steve Ferguson, a seal biologists, rashly stated in 2016<\/a> that Hudson Bay could be ice-free in winter<\/em> as early as 2021<\/a> [which, needless to say, never came close to fruition].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019d say if Southern Hudson Bay polar bears might be extirpated as soon as 2030, as the paper\u2019s co-author Alex Crawford suggests<\/a>, the global temperature and ice melt had better get a move on: a survey showed the SH population was thriving in 2021 and Hudson Bay sea ice hasn\u2019t hit any kind of death spiral in the three years since.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The paper<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A newly-released paper<\/a> by Julienne Stroeve and colleagues attempted to predict future sea ice coverage<\/a> of Hudson Bay based on sea ice thickness in order to correlate it with future polar bear survival. The paper is called, \u201cIce-free period too long for Southern and Western Hudson Bay polar bear populations if global warming exceeds 1.6 to 2.60<\/sup>C.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since no one else appears to have attempted this method of sea ice projection, it remains to be seen if it will prove any more accurate than previous failed methods based on ice extent by the same lead author (e.g. Stroeve et al. 2007, 2014).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Simplified version of Stroeve et al\u2019s 2007 sea ice model used to get ESA listing for polar bears in 2008: the model failed to predict the 2007 decline and 2012 was even worse. Courtesy Wikipedia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors admit that getting accurate sea ice thickness readings from satellite data and other sources is difficult at small scales, especially during the shoulder seasons of ice melt (early summer) and ice formation (autumn), when determining whether or not the supposedly critical 10cm of ice is present or not (i.e. enough to support an adult male bear).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their decision to include primarily satellite-generated estimates of snow depth over sea ice<\/a> in their predictive model \u2014 a critical metric for ringed seals in spring (when newborn pups are predated on by polar bears) \u2014 only adds to the potential inaccuracy of the entire endeavour. Sea ice thickness during the winter and snow depth over ice were variable factors<\/a> Ian Stirling couldn\u2019t account for in the 1980s<\/a> when he was trying to figure out why cub survival was so low and bears were coming off the ice in such poor condition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s questionable whether these snow and sea ice thickness data are accurate enough for the intended purpose and unfortunately, there is no way to double-check them since there are very few \u201cground-truth\u201d measurements available for Hudson Bay<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even more concerning is the basic premise of this paper which states that polar bears in Western and Southern Hudson Bay are already showing negative impacts of a longer-than-usual open water season. In short, the conclusion stated in the abstract is based on a lie<\/a>: \u201c\u2026with longer ice-free periods already substantially impacting recruitment <\/em>[not true], extirpation for polar bears in this region may already be inevitable<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First of all, the change in the length of the open water season since 1979 happened as a \u201cstep-change\u201d around 1998. After about 2000, the ice-free period was about 3 weeks longer than it had been before the turn of the century (Castro de la Guardia et al. 2017) but hasn\u2019t changed since then. The implication that there has been a steady, year-after-year increase in the length of the ice-free season since 1979 in Western Hudson Bay is deliberate obfuscation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, the authors blatantly misrepresented data published in 2022 about aerial surveys conducted in 2021 for Western and Southern Hudson Bay polar bears, which I discussed previously here<\/a> (Atkinson et al. 2022; Northrup et al. 2022; see also Crockford 2024). In other words, there has been no major change in sea ice coverage since at least 2001 and no change in polar bear population sizes in Western and Southern Hudson Bay since at least 2011 (and probably since 2004), so the premise of the model is false.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, for reasons that have never been adequately explained, the 1980s saw weights of polar bears and cub survival decline, with a marked increase in the loss of whole litters over what had been documented in the 1960s and 1970s (Calvert et al. 1986:19, 24; Derocher and Stirling 1992, 1995; Calvert et al. 1986:19, 24; Ramsay and Stirling 1988; Stirling and Lunn 1997).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s only when you start your WH data at 1980 \u2013 so that you don\u2019t have to compare it to the two previous decades \u2013 that 1980 looks like the good old days<\/a> for polar bears (Stirling and Derocher 2012; Stirling et al. 1999) and makes it appear that the step-change in the ice-free period (IFP) had a big impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The erroneous premise of the paper is used to justify using the time polar bears spend onshore as the only metric to correlate with sea ice thickness projections. From the Methods section: \u201cTo calibrate the IFP to the polar bear fasting period (i.e., the period of time polar bears spend onshore), we use the onshore\/offshore dates for polar bears reported in Fig. 2 of Cherry et al. (2013)<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why would they use only onshore\/offshore dates from a paper using data from only 1991-1997 and 2004-2009 when more recent dates are available from on-going but unpublished tracking studies<\/a> conducted by Andrew Derocher and his students? <\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Perhaps it has something to do with the inconvenient fact that, contrary to predictions, the ice-free periods for several of the last few years have been as short as they were in the 1980s: especially 2020<\/a> and 2022<\/a> but also 2017, 2018<\/a> and 2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Final Thoughts<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have a paper that uses a false premise to predict the possible extirpation of SH bears by 2030 at the earliest, based on the most pessimistic predictions of global temperature increases melting Hudson Bay sea ice, based on similarly pessimistic models of fossil fuel emissions, from which the authors conclude that fossil fuel use must be curtailed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No discussion about SH or WH bears moving north if conditions indeed deteriorate, like they did in the Barents Sea<\/a>: just death and population decline, oh my.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the final conclusions of this paper are revealing (note IFP = ice-free period):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhile it is difficult to provide a hard-limit of IFP before extirpation of WHB or SHB polar bear populations occurs, confronted with these threats, proactive measures are imperative<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, the authors can\u2019t be sure when, or even if this catastrophe will happen, but they think we absolutely must rearrange society to reduce fossil fuel use just in case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As I said, another utterly useless modelling paper. It\u2019s certainly not science.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PS: No reports of polar bears onshore yet in WH or near Churchill<\/a> despite the reduced ice on Hudson Bay caused by wind<\/a>, so it looks like the movement of bears onshore will not be early again this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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References<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Atkinson, S.N., Boulanger, J., Campbell, M., Trim, V. Ware, J., and Roberto-Charron, A. 2022.<\/strong> 2021 Aerial survey of the Western Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation. Final report to the Government of Nunavut, 16 November 2022. pdf here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Calvert, W., Stirling, I., Schweinsburg, R.E., Lee, L.J., Kolenosky, G.B., Shoesmith, M., Smith, B., Crete, M. and Luttich, S. 1986.<\/strong> Polar bear management in Canada 1982-84. In: Polar Bears: Proceedings of the 9th meeting of the Polar Bear Specialists Group IUCN\/SSC, 9-11 August, 1985,<\/em> Edmonton, Canada. Anonymous (eds). Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge UK, IUCN. pg. 19-34.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Castro de la Guardia, L., Myers, P.G., Derocher, A.E., Lunn, N.J., Terwisscha van Scheltinga, A.D. 2017.<\/strong> Sea ice cycle in western Hudson Bay, Canada, from a polar bear perspective. Marine Ecology Progress Series<\/em> 564: 225\u2013233. http:\/\/www.int-res.com\/abstracts\/meps\/v564\/p225-233\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cherry, S.G., Derocher, A.E., Thiemann, G.W., Lunn, N.J. 2013.<\/strong> Migration phenology and seasonal fidelity of an Arctic marine predator in relation to sea ice dynamics. Journal of Animal Ecology<\/em> 82<\/strong>:912-921. http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/1365-2656.12050\/abstract<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crockford, S.J. 2024.<\/strong> State of the Polar Bear 2023. Briefing Paper 67<\/a>. Global Warming Policy Foundation, London. Download pdf here.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Derocher, A.E. and Stirling, I. 1992.<\/strong> The population dynamics of polar bears in western Hudson Bay. pg. 1150-1159 in D. R. McCullough and R. H. Barrett, eds. Wildlife 2001: Populations.<\/em> Elsevier Sci. Publ., London, U.K. See abstract below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abstract<\/em><\/strong>: Reproductive output of polar bears in western Hudson Bay declined through the 1980\u2019s from higher levels in the 1960\u2019s and 1970\u2019s.<\/em><\/strong> Age of first reproduction increased slightly and the rate of litter production declined from 0.45 to 0.35 litters\/female\/year over the study, indicating that the reproductive interval had increased. Recruitment of cubs to autumn decreased from 0.71 to 0.53 cubs\/female\/year. Cub mortality increased from the early to late 1980\u2019s<\/strong>. Litter size did not show any significant trend or significant annual variation due to an increase in loss of the whole litter. Mean body weights of females with cubs in the spring and autumn declined significantly.<\/strong> Weights of cubs in the spring did not decline, although weights of both female and male cubs declined over the study. The population is approximately 60% female, possibly due to the sex-biased harvest. Although estimates of population size are not available from the whole period over which we have weight and reproductive data, the changes in reproduction, weight, and cub mortality are consistent with the predictions of a densitydependent response to increasing population size. [my bold]<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Derocher, A.E. and Stirling, I. 1995.<\/strong> Temporal variation in reproduction and body mass of polar bears in western Hudson Bay. Canadian Journal of Zoology<\/em>73:<\/strong>1657-1665. http:\/\/www.nrcresearchpress.com\/doi\/abs\/10.1139\/z95-197<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Northrup, J.M., Howe, E., Lunn, N., Middel, K., Obbard, M.E., Ross, T., Szor, G., Walton, L., and Ware, J. 2022.<\/strong> Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation aerial survey report. Final report to Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, 29 November 2022, pdf here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ramsay, M.A. and Stirling, I. 1988.<\/strong> Reproductive biology and ecology of female polar bears (Ursus maritimus<\/em>). Journal of Zoology London<\/em> 214:<\/strong>601-624. http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/j.1469-7998.1988.tb03762.x\/abstract<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stirling, I. and Lunn, N.J. 1997. <\/strong>Environmental fluctuations in arctic marine ecosystems as reflected by variability in reproduction of polar bears and ringed seals. In Ecology of Arctic Environments<\/em>, Woodin, S.J. and Marquiss, M. (eds), pg. 167-181. Blackwell Science, UK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stirling, I., Lunn, N.J. and Iacozza, J. 1999. <\/strong>Long-term trends in the population ecology of polar bears in Western Hudson Bay in relation to climate change. Arctic<\/em> 52:294-306. pdf here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stirling, I., Schweinsburg, R.E., Kolenasky, G.B., Juniper, I., Robertson, R.J., and Luttich, S. 1980<\/strong>. Proceedings of the 7th meeting of the Polar Bear Specialists Group IUCN\/SSC, 30 January-1 February, 1979, Copenhagen, Denmark. Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge UK, IUCN., pg. 45-53.http:\/\/pbsg.npolar.no\/en\/meetings\/<\/a> pdf of except here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stroeve, J., Crawford, A., Ferguson, S., Stirling, I., Archer, L., York, G., Babb, D. and Mallet, R. 2024. <\/strong>Ice-free period too long for Southern and Western Hudson Bay polar bear populations if global warming exceeds 1.6 to 2.60<\/sup> C. Nature Communications Earth & Environment<\/em> 5:296 [open access] https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s43247-024-01430-7<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stroeve, J., Holland, M.M., Meier, W., Scambos, T. and Serreze, M. 2007.<\/strong> Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast. Geophysical Research Letters<\/em> 34:L09501. https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1029\/2007GL029703<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stroeve, J.C., Markus, T., Boisert, L., et al. 2014. <\/strong>Changes in Arctic melt season and implications for sea ice loss. Geophysical Research Letters<\/em> 10.1002\/2013GL058951. https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1002\/2013GL058951<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new collaboration by sea ice and polar bear specialists that predicts a catastrophic future for polar bears in Hudson Bay (Stroeve et al. 2024) can be dismissed as yet another bit of utterly useless fearmongering for two reasons: 1) it\u2019s a model projection that uses widely discredited SSP5-8.5 \u201cbusiness as usual\u201d climate scenarios for its predictions; and 2) it\u2019s based on the false premise that Western and Southern Hudson Bay polar bears have already suffered harm from reduced sea ice blamed on fossil fuel-caused global warming.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":332787,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819743,691818087,691818250,691829187,691818251],"class_list":{"0":"post-332777","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-propaganda","9":"tag-global-warming","10":"tag-hudson-bay","11":"tag-julienne-stroeve","12":"tag-polar-bears","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00wallpapersden.com_polar-bear-alaska-snow_2932x2932.jpg?fit=2932%2C2932&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1ozn","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":336354,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=336354","url_meta":{"origin":332777,"position":0},"title":"Last month of Arctic spring fails to bring sea ice to its knees, even in Southern Hudson Bay","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/13\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Polar bear habitat for June \u2014 the last month of spring in the Arctic \u2014 is still within 2 standard deviations of the long-term average despite sea ice experts\u2019 predictions that catastrophic declines can be expected any year now.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0-plar-bears-47.jpeg?fit=1200%2C762&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0-plar-bears-47.jpeg?fit=1200%2C762&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0-plar-bears-47.jpeg?fit=1200%2C762&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0-plar-bears-47.jpeg?fit=1200%2C762&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0-plar-bears-47.jpeg?fit=1200%2C762&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":214945,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=214945","url_meta":{"origin":332777,"position":1},"title":"Grizzly on the shore of W. Hudson Bay and two tagged polar bears still on sea ice on 17 August","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/22\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Before this, polar bear experts looked at the sea ice conditions in the 1980s and figured that was what polar bears absolutely required","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-941.png?fit=1200%2C820&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-941.png?fit=1200%2C820&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-941.png?fit=1200%2C820&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-941.png?fit=1200%2C820&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-941.png?fit=1200%2C820&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":290645,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=290645","url_meta":{"origin":332777,"position":2},"title":"Despite hand-wringing about Churchill polar bears this year, 2023 wasn\u2019t their worst summer","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"For months, the media has been bleating about the poor polar bears of Churchill suffering from lack of sea ice blamed on human-caused climate change during the so-called\u00a0\u2018hottest year\u2019 on record: in\u00a0April,\u00a0July,\u00a0August,\u00a0November, and\u00a0December.","rel":"","context":"In \"2023\"","block_context":{"text":"2023","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2023"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":267566,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267566","url_meta":{"origin":332777,"position":3},"title":"Hudson Bay sea ice loss has not accelerated since 2014: in fact, summer ice cover has improved","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/15\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"This is only the third year since 2014 that the bay has had less than usual amounts of ice, which means most years since then have had normal or nearly normal ice coverage, similar to the 1980s. 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