{"id":332600,"date":"2024-06-12T09:33:14","date_gmt":"2024-06-12T07:33:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=332600"},"modified":"2024-06-12T09:33:15","modified_gmt":"2024-06-12T07:33:15","slug":"declining-weather-disasters-prove-doomsters-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=332600","title":{"rendered":"Declining Weather Disasters Prove Doomsters\u00a0Wrong"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
A recent scientific study has confirmed that natural and climate-related disasters are declining during the 21st century. Getty Images\/iStcokphoto<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Benny Peiser makes the case in his NY Post article Despite climate-change hysterics, weather disasters have decreased<\/strong><\/a>.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A recent scientific study has confirmed what climate realists have been highlighting<\/strong> for some time: Natural and climate-related disasters<\/strong> have been declining<\/strong> rather than increasing during the 21st century.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a paper <\/strong>published this year<\/strong> <\/a>in one of the world\u2019s leading journals on environmental hazards, Italian scientists Gianluca Alimonti and Luigi Mariani analyzed the number and temporal trends of natural disasters reported since 1900.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Based on the best available data, the two scientists concluded the 21st century has seen \u201ca decreasing trend [of natural disasters] to 2022\u201d<\/strong> which is \u201ccharacterized by a significant decline in number of events<\/strong>.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The researchers emphasized that their conclusion \u201csits in marked contradiction to earlier analyses by UN bodies<\/strong> which predict an increasing number of natural disasters<\/strong> and impacts in concert with global warming.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOur analyses strongly refute this assertion,\u201d they wrote.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For years, international agencies<\/strong> such as the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the World Meteorological Organization and the International Red Cross have claimed that climate-related disasters are escalating.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Floods lead a near doubling of disaster events from 1980 to 1999 compared to 2000 to 2019, according to a report by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWeather disasters are striking the world four to five times more often and causing seven times more damage than in the 1970s,\u201d the WMO reported in 2021.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disaster and weather officials affiliated with the UN claim this dramatic rise is due to global warming<\/strong>: The changing climate, they say, is making weather disasters stronger and more frequent.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The increased frequency of heat waves, droughts, flooding, winter storms, hurricanes, wildfires and other extreme weather events prove the negative impact of a warming world, according to various UN agencies<\/strong> and nongovernmental organizations.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet, as the actual data<\/strong> used by these organizations reveals, the last 20 years have in fact seen a significant decline<\/strong> in such events.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It turns out that climate alarmists have based their claims on a highly misleading comparison<\/strong> of disaster data of the late 20th and the early 21st centuries.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By their tally, the period from 1980 to 2000<\/strong> saw about 4,200 natural disasters<\/strong> \u2014with the number increasing sharply, to more than 8,000, during the first 20 years of this century.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This conclusion, however, is fatally flawed: It fails to take into account the huge increase in the global reporting of disasters<\/strong> engendered by the invention and rapid global dissemination of new communication technologies<\/strong> since the 1980s.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The arrival of the internet and other new communication tools has undoubtedly accelerated<\/strong> the reporting<\/strong> of disasters from all corners of the world<\/strong> \u2014 events that were significantly underreported in earlier decades.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As well, the\u00a0number of people killed<\/strong>\u00a0by natural and climate-related disasters\u00a0has fallen steadily<\/strong>\u00a0over the past 120 years \u2014 from 500,000 deaths per decade in the early 20th century down to less than 50,000 per decade in the last ten years.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And, contrary to claims by NGOs and government officials, climate-related disaster losses have also declined as a percentage of global GDP<\/strong> during the last 30 years \u2014 from about 0.25% of GDP in 1990 to less than 0.20% in 2023.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study by Alimonti and Mariani vindicates what we at the Global Warming Policy Foundation have been pointing out for a long time: Climate-related disasters are not on the rise, despite warming temperatures.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

International agencies and the news media have hyped climate disasters for far too long<\/strong>, while ignoring the factual downward trend.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201dFirst they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win,\u201d as the saying goes.  UN agencies and NGOs have been misleading<\/strong> the public for years. It\u2019s past time for the truth to win out.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benny Peiser<\/strong> is the director of the London-based Global Warming Policy Foundation.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See also<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our Weather Extremes Are Customary in History | Science Matters (rclutz.com)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure27: Annual count of EF3 and above tornadoes in the US, 1950\u20132021. Source: Source: NOAA\/NCEI.106, 107<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Based on the best available data, the two scientists concluded the 21st century has seen \u201ca decreasing trend [of natural disasters] to 2022\u201d which is \u201ccharacterized by a significant decline in number of events.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":332616,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691829159,691829158,691818513],"class_list":{"0":"post-332600","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-climate-related-disasters","10":"tag-decreasing-trend","11":"tag-weather-disasters","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0EOacseQX4AYvRRQ.jpg?fit=1037%2C937&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1oww","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":332028,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=332028","url_meta":{"origin":332600,"position":0},"title":"New study confirms GWPF reports on declining climate\u00a0disasters","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/06\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"A new scientific study has confirmed what GWPF reports and statements have emphasised for some time: Natural and climate-related disasters have been declining rather than increasing during the 21st century","rel":"","context":"In \"climate disasters\"","block_context":{"text":"climate disasters","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-disasters"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00merlin_62649158_cac0d216-96e9-4044-a643-34c3ffbbf3d6-superJumbo.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00merlin_62649158_cac0d216-96e9-4044-a643-34c3ffbbf3d6-superJumbo.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00merlin_62649158_cac0d216-96e9-4044-a643-34c3ffbbf3d6-superJumbo.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00merlin_62649158_cac0d216-96e9-4044-a643-34c3ffbbf3d6-superJumbo.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00merlin_62649158_cac0d216-96e9-4044-a643-34c3ffbbf3d6-superJumbo.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":273372,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=273372","url_meta":{"origin":332600,"position":1},"title":"EM-DAT:\u00a0 The International Disaster Database","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Note that Deaths are often not\u00a0fully\u00a0reported for months and even years after a major event, thus the EM-DAT data on deaths lags by a year or so. 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