{"id":332206,"date":"2024-06-09T10:21:12","date_gmt":"2024-06-09T08:21:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=332206"},"modified":"2024-06-09T10:21:15","modified_gmt":"2024-06-09T08:21:15","slug":"net-zero-by-2050-is-simply-not-happening","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=332206","title":{"rendered":"Net zero by 2050 is simply not\u00a0happening"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n\n

h\/t Philip Bratby<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Few energy analysts enjoy the level of global <\/em>respect accorded to Vaclav Smil<\/em><\/a>, a distinguished professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba and a best-selling author of 47 books. Whenever Smil publishes something new, people in the energy space pay attention. That\u2019s certainly the case with his latest publication, a 48-page report titled \u201c<\/em>Halfway Between Kyoto and 2050: Net Zero Carbon Is a Highly Unlikely Outcome<\/em><\/a>.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the report, Smil details efforts to date by global governments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and finds them wholly inadequate to achieve the goal of net-zero by 2050.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTo eliminate carbon emissions by 2050,\u201d Smil writes, \u201cgovernments face unprecedented technical, economic and political challenges, making rapid and inexpensive transition impossible.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among a wide array of major hurdles that must be overcome, Smil highlights the enormous scale of global energy use, the slow pace of energy transitions throughout history, and the fact that \u201cmajor emitters like the United States, China, and Russia have conflicting interests.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In discussing the slow pace of prior energy transitions, Smil echoes the thoughts of another respected energy analyst and writer, <\/em>Daniel Yergin<\/em><\/a>, himself a best-selling author of books like \u201cThe Prize,\u201d and \u201cThe New Map.\u201d During our <\/em>interview in March<\/em><\/a>, Yergin pointed to the fact that the transition from burning wood for heating and cooking to using coal \u2013 that began in 15th<\/sup> century Britain \u2013 is still ongoing. Indeed, the world used more wood for energy during 2023 than any other year in history.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Smil shines a spotlight on the key issue of copper, a vital metal used in most every electronic gadget, car, home appliance, and power grids worldwide. His report delves into detail on why it will be impossible to produce copper in the amounts needed to turn  the supposed \u201ctransition\u201d into reality, a theme that echoes a growing array of findings by <\/em>other studies<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Smil estimates that efforts to replace today\u2019s 1.35 billion light duty cars and heavy trucks would \u201crequire nearly 150 million tons of additional copper during the next 27 years. That is an equivalent of more than seven years of today\u2019s annual copper extraction for all of the metal\u2019s many industrial and commercial uses.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

He also points out the facts that \u201cmetal content of exploited copper ores from Chile, the world\u2019s leading source of the metal, has declined from 1.41 percent in 1999 to 0.6 percent in 2023, and further quality deterioration is inevitable.\u201d The declining metal content means a corresponding massive rise in the tonnage of ore that must be mined and thus a corresponding cost in the disposal of all the additional waste product at a terrible environmental cost.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Worse, copper is just one of an extensive array of critical energy minerals that must also be mined in the coming years to feed the needs of the wind, solar, battery, and electric vehicle industries chosen by globalist governments as the favoured solutions. Metals like lithium, colbalt, tungsten, antimony, nickel, and silver, not to mention an array of rare earths, all must achieve radically higher production levels to make any or all of this transition work.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Smil also highlights the stunning costs of the planned energy transition, pointing out that the US current GDP is about $25 trillion, and getting to net zero will cost 20 per cent of our GDP, meaning the <\/em>US would have to begin spending about $5 trillion per year on decarbonisation efforts<\/em><\/a>. Citing a McKinsey study that estimates the energy transition\u2019s total cost at $275 trillion, Smil posits that inevitable delays and cost overruns not factored into that estimate are likely to cause the real cost to rise by 60 per cent, bringing the total to an unimaginable $440 trillion.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Smil\u2019s conclusion that a \u201crapid and inexpensive transition\u201d is \u201cimpossible\u201d gives the lie to the preferred narrative pushed by transition proponents that their desired end state can be achieved without major sacrifices and reductions in standards of living. Indeed, we are already starting to see such sacrifices being mandated by governments across the western world.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prices for every form of energy have risen dramatically since the policy push for <\/em>Green New Deal-type subsidies<\/em><\/a> started in earnest with Joe Biden\u2019s inauguration in January 2021. The public pronouncements by politicians in the US, Canada, and Europe increasingly include advocacy for rising restrictions in the ability for ordinary citizens to engage in tourist travel, and the need for them to live smaller, less comfortable, less prosperous lives to \u201csave the planet.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To his great credit, Smil\u2019s report adds to a growing body of data detailing the enormous costs involved in this forced march to lower standards of living for all but the privileged elites among us. It should be required reading in every household and school.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/news\/2024\/06\/08\/net-zero-green-energy-transition-vaclav-smil-says-no<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Few energy analysts enjoy the level of global respect accorded to Vaclav Smil, a distinguished professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba and a best-selling author of 47 books. Whenever Smil publishes something new, people in the energy space pay attention. That\u2019s certainly the case with his latest publication, a 48-page report titled \u201cHalfway Between Kyoto and 2050: Net Zero Carbon Is a Highly Unlikely Outcome.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":332210,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819630,691818154,691824798],"class_list":{"0":"post-332206","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-energy-crisis","9":"tag-net-zero","10":"tag-renewable-green-energy-2","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0shutterstock_1494309533-1536x1022-1.jpg?fit=1536%2C1022&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1oqa","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":197843,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=197843","url_meta":{"origin":332206,"position":0},"title":"DeSmog on Vaclav Smil (this deep thinker is largely correct)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"30\/04\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"From\u00a0MasterResource By Robert Bradley Jr. \u2014 April 28, 2022 \u201cIn a\u00a0profile in\u00a0Science\u00a0magazine, [Vaclav] Smil constructed his own models of how carbon dioxide emissions might affect climate and found it \u2018wanting.\u2019 \u2018I have too much respect for reality,\u2019 Smil\u00a0said.\u201d (DeSmog, below) I have previously highlighted\u00a0DeSmog\u00a0pieces on climate and energy realists to\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0158841180_twitter-post.webp?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0158841180_twitter-post.webp?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0158841180_twitter-post.webp?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0158841180_twitter-post.webp?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":199478,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=199478","url_meta":{"origin":332206,"position":1},"title":"Vaclav Smil: Antidote to Magical Thinking","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/05\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"By\u00a0Richard W. Fulmer \u201cWhat\u2019s the point of setting goals which cannot be achieved? People call it aspirational. I call it delusional.\u201d (V. Smil, below) In an article filed under \u201cclimate crimes,\u201d\u00a0The Guardian\u00a0claims\u00a0that environmental nirvana is reachable if only politicians stop listening to Big Oil and start listening to social scientists.\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0Magical-Thinking-Cognitive-Distortion-CBT-The-Psychology-Group-Fort-Lauderdale.webp?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0Magical-Thinking-Cognitive-Distortion-CBT-The-Psychology-Group-Fort-Lauderdale.webp?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0Magical-Thinking-Cognitive-Distortion-CBT-The-Psychology-Group-Fort-Lauderdale.webp?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0Magical-Thinking-Cognitive-Distortion-CBT-The-Psychology-Group-Fort-Lauderdale.webp?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0Magical-Thinking-Cognitive-Distortion-CBT-The-Psychology-Group-Fort-Lauderdale.webp?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":387506,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=387506","url_meta":{"origin":332206,"position":2},"title":"Energy Facts, No Hype, from Vaclav\u00a0Smil","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/07\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"There is perhaps no scholar more qualified to dissect the world\u2019s energy systems on a macro scale \u2013 from food and agriculture to electricity and fuel \u2013 than Vaclav Smil. 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