{"id":332073,"date":"2024-06-08T11:19:07","date_gmt":"2024-06-08T09:19:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=332073"},"modified":"2024-06-08T11:19:09","modified_gmt":"2024-06-08T09:19:09","slug":"global-deaths-and-disasters-down-un-shameless-lies-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=332073","title":{"rendered":"Global deaths and disasters down: UN shameless lies, up"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From JoNova <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Jo Nova<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To solve the increase in global disasters just axe the UN<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Despite a galactic rise in Headlines of Doom, the world is a safer place than ever. The United Nations however is an absolute danger to our quality of life and our children\u2019s mental health. They\u2019ve shamelessly concocted the myth that disasters are increasing due to \u201cclimate change\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NetZeroWatch<\/em> <\/a>report on a new paper on natural disasters<\/a> and find that yearly deaths are down. Somehow satellites, phones, antibiotics, bulldozers and fire trucks are better at saving lives than horse drawn carts and hessian bags. Who would have guessed, apart from everyone?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Alimonti and Mariani.:<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Below the graph of natural disaster events<\/em> shows a huge increase in the reporting of disasters, at least up until the turn of the century. But there is, if anything, a decline since then. There are three very different trends. But the giant bureaucratic sponge that is the United Nations can shamelessly draw a straight linear trend through this graph and tell the world that disasters are getting worse, even as they are obviously not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the last twenty years, humans have put out 40% of all the CO2 emissions they\u2019ve ever put out since they lived in caves, but disasters have decreased 20%. It used to be that 20 year trends were enough to launch a new UN committee, but now the only trend-length that matters is the one that goes \u201cup\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another pair of analysts  point out the CRED (Centre on the Epidemiology of Disasters) was only set up in 1973 and the EM-DAT database was only established in 1988. (Ritichie and Rosado<\/a>).  Even the CRED team itself has warned people about reading too much into these trends, yet practically every separate wing of the UN has done exactly that. The FAO said<\/a> \u201cdisaster events have increased from 100 per year in the 1970s to around 400 events per year worldwide in the past 20 years<\/em>.\u201d The UN Chief said \u201cnatural disasters have quadrupled since 1970<\/a>.\u201d The the UNFCC took his misinformation and repeated it. A few years ago the WMO<\/a> said \u201cThe number of disasters has increased by a factor of five over the 50-year period.<\/em>\u201d The  BBC<\/a> and The Economist<\/a> lapped it up. Too many mistakes is never enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2019, the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) opined about the \u201c\u2018staggering rise in climate-related disasters over the last twenty years<\/em>\u2019\u201d proving only that lying UN agencies are a bigger threat to the science than the entire fossil fuel industry ever was.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The rise in all of these disasters is mostly because people got better at reporting disasters.  Back in 1901 if a cyclone landed in Ecuador, nobody rang up the UN, which didn\u2019t exist, on phones that weren\u2019t installed, to tell them about it. And when global population was five times smaller i<\/a>n 1900 tornados could wander the prairies and sometimes no one would notice. Droughts could strike rivers and unless the fish complained, who would know?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Suspiciously geophysical disasters (like earthquakes and volcanoes) have also increased \u201csince 1900\u201d and at about the same rate and with the same \u201cbreak point\u201d in the trend. Obviously our gas guzzling cars are not causing earthquakes and beef-steak doesn\u2019t set off volcanoes. So the rapid increase in these sorts of disasters in the 1970s and 1980s supports the theory that the  rapid rise an artefact of data collection. There\u2019s a lot more detail on that in the paper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Meanwhile, the relentless good news on global crops continues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If there really were more storms and frosts and devastating floods, you\u2019d think the rice paddies and cornfields of the world would have noticed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet here they go again, growing 2 to 4% more grain year after year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Alimonti and Mariani don\u2019t mince their words \u2014 the increase is just \u201cbetter reporting\u201d:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We conclude that the patterns observed are largely attributable to progressively better reporting of natural disaster events, with the EM-DAT dataset now regarded as relatively complete since \u223c2000. The above result sits in marked contradiction to earlier analyses by two UN bodies (FAO andUNDRR), which predicts an increasing number of natural disasters and impacts in concert with global warming. Our analyses strongly refute this assertion as well as extrapolations published by UNDRR based on this claim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The claim that the increase in disasters registered in EM-DAT in the final part of the twentieth century is mostly, if not completely, caused by better reporting and not by a real events increase, is supported by three independent lines of evidence: (a) several CRED reports (Guha-Sapir et al., 2004; Scheuren et al., 2008; CRED, 2015); (b) best fit analysis that found an important breakpoint and even a change in the trend sign of natural disasters at the beginning of the 21th century, in agreement with what is written and justified in point a; (c) the same trend change and breakpoint for geophysical disasters that have very little, if anything, to do with human activities or global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it\u2019s also \u201cbetter blindness\u201d. If the BBC, The Economist, and all the other sycophant agents of groupthink and power-mongers asked for \u201ca graph\u201d (with all the data) the facade would fall over in a week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

REFERENCES<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Gianluca Alimonti & Luigi Mariani (2024) Is the number of global natural disasters increasing?, Environmental Hazards, vol 23: No 2, 186-202, DOI:
10.1080\/17477891.2023.2239807<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) from the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hannah Ritchie and Pablo Rosado (2024) \u2013 \u201cIs the number of natural disasters increasing<\/a>?\u201d Published online at OurWorldInData.org.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The GWPF helpfully provides a list of references, including their work refuting these claims:<\/p>\n\n\n\n