{"id":331105,"date":"2024-06-03T16:12:51","date_gmt":"2024-06-03T14:12:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=331105"},"modified":"2024-06-03T16:12:54","modified_gmt":"2024-06-03T14:12:54","slug":"the-13th-first-climate-refugees","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=331105","title":{"rendered":"The 13th First Climate Refugees"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [see update at end]<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every few years we get another media piece about the \u201cfirst climate refugees\u201d. I\u2019ve written about the latest one below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here are the first through sixth first climate refugees<\/a>, and the seventh<\/a>, ninth<\/a>, and eleventh-tenth<\/a> first climate refugees. Where are the eighth first climate refugees? No clue, it\u2019s hard to keep track of them all. Oh, and here are the twelfth first climate refugees<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So where are the 13th first climate refugees? They are some of the Kuna (or Guna) people. They live in Panama, on a tiny island named Gardi Sugdub. And by tiny, I mean minuscule. It is about 1200 feet (366 meters) long and 450 feet (137 meters) wide. The media piece about them is called \u201cPanama prepares to evacuate first island in face of rising sea levels<\/a>\u201c. Inter alia it says:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

The Gunas of Gardi Sugdub are the first of 63 communities along Panama\u2019s Caribbean and Pacific coasts that government officials and scientists expect to be forced to relocate by rising sea levels in the coming decades.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

and<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Steven Paton, director of the Smithsonian Institution\u2019s physical monitoring program in Panama, said that the upcoming move \u201cis a direct consequence of climate change through the increase in sea level.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Bear in mind that the person commenting works for the Smithsonian Institute, which will be of interest later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And below is a view of the island.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 1. Google Earth view of Gardi Sugdub. The word \u201coverpopulation\u201d comes to mind\u00a0<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So \u2026 is \u201cclimate change\u201d the reason why the island is going to be abandoned? Are we humans truly to blame?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well \u2026 yes, humans are to blame, but it\u2019s not the result of \u201cclimate change\u201d<\/em>. From the Smithsonian Institute<\/a>, you know, the Institute that Steven Paton quoted above works for, I find the following (emphasis mine):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Natural Disturbances and Mining of Panamanian Coral Reefs by Indigenous People<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00c9CTOR M. GUZM\u00c1N,* CARLOS GUEVARA, AND ARCADIO CASTILLO
Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abstract: Before the 1980s, coral reefs were considered relatively stable and healthy in Kuna-Yala, Caribbean Panama. During the 1980s, however, several natural disturbances changed the reef\u2019s community structure. We evaluated historical changes in coral cover and for the first time provide quantitative evidence of a large-scale process of reef degradation<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This process started long before the onset of these disturbances as a result of demographic growth and the traditional practices of the Kuna people. Living coral cover declined 79% in 30 years<\/strong> (1970\u20132001) while the indigenous population increased 62%. We measured 20 km of seawall built with mined reef corals (16,000 m3) and an increase in island surface area of 6.23 ha caused by coral land filling. Consequently, coastal erosion has increased<\/strong> as a result of the lack of a protective natural barrier and a 2.0 cm\/year local increase in sea level. Coral-mining and land-filling practices to accommodate population expansion and mismanagement of resources<\/strong> have significantly modified the reef ecosystem and will have serious long-term consequences.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

So no, the problem is neither \u201cclimate change\u201d nor \u201crising sea levels\u201d. It\u2019s overpopulation resulting in coral mining, landfilling, and reef destruction that are forcing the move. There\u2019s much more good stuff in the study, interesting reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And in any case, how much has \u201cclimate change\u201d increased the sea level trend in the area? Well \u2026 not at all. Here\u2019s the nearest station with data up to the present. In the last 100 years, the sea level has risen by 137 mm (just over five inches).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 2. Sea level in Balboa, Panama. Note that there is no visible acceleration in the rate of sea level rise from the start of the record in 1910 up to the present.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve written before about how if you destroy the reef, you destroy the island. It\u2019s discussed in a piece called Floating Islands<\/a> and another called Why The Parrotfish Should Be The National Bird<\/a>. If you\u2019re interested in preserving the coral atolls, you might give those posts a read.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[UPDATE]<\/strong><\/em> I finally tracked down where the Smithsonian got their unimaginable claimed sea level increase of 20 mm (\u201c2 cm\u201d in their study) per year. Near as I can tell, it comes from a very short (only 6+ years of \u201cresearch quality\u201d data) University of Hawaii tide station<\/a> in El Porvenir, across the bay from Gardi Subdug. Here\u2019s that record:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Note the large swings, including a 100mm (4 inch) rise in one year. YIKES! For reasons like this, in their study Sea Level Rise in Australia and the Pacific<\/a>, Mitchell et al. open by saying:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

It is generally accepted that the determination of a trend in a sea level record is only possible when a long time series of observed elevations over many years is available. The small magnitude of the trend on the one hand, and the perturbation of the record by systematic noise over a wide range of
frequencies on the other, determine that this is so.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Per Mitchell et al in the same study, a \u201clong time series\u201d<\/em> is 50 years or more<\/strong> \u2026 so you can see how using a paltry six-year record will give bogus answers like the 20 mm\/year sea level rise quoted by the Smithsonian folks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PS: Yeah, you\u2019ve heard it before<\/strong>\u2014when you comment please quote the exact words you are discussing<\/strong>. It avoids endless misunderstandings. And if you want to show that I\u2019ve made some error(s), please read this short thread that tells you How To Show That Willis Is Wrong<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Every few years we get another media piece about the \u201cfirst climate refugees\u201d. I\u2019ve written about the latest one below.<\/p>\n

Here are the first through sixth first climate refugees, and the seventh, ninth, and eleventh-tenth first climate refugees. Where are the eighth first climate refugees? No clue, it\u2019s hard to keep track of them all. Oh, and here are the twelfth first climate refugees.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":331112,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691828949,691819044,691828948,691828528],"class_list":{"0":"post-331105","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-caribbean-and-pacific-coasts","9":"tag-climate-refugees","10":"tag-kuna-yala","11":"tag-panama","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0Fotor_141400867675496.jpg?fit=1600%2C1066&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1o8p","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":240668,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=240668","url_meta":{"origin":331105,"position":0},"title":"Al Gore\u2019s Rant at the Davos\/WEF Forum that Climate Change Will Create 1 BILLION Climate Refugees Is Unhinged and Wrong","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/01\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Gore\u2019s boiling oceans and rain bombs remarks can be easily dismissed as hyperbole, but his claim about climate refugees was less hyperbolic and more than just wrong. 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