{"id":330851,"date":"2024-06-01T18:20:06","date_gmt":"2024-06-01T16:20:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=330851"},"modified":"2024-06-01T18:20:08","modified_gmt":"2024-06-01T16:20:08","slug":"carbon-dioxide-and-a-warming-climate-are-not-problems","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=330851","title":{"rendered":"Carbon Dioxide and a Warming Climate are not problems"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Andy May and Marcel Crok<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We were charged by Marty Rowland and the American Journal of Economics and Sociology<\/em> (AJES<\/em>) with writing a literature review paper supporting the skeptical (aka \u201cdenier\u201d) position with regard to dangerous man-made climate change. Our paper<\/a> is fully peer-reviewed and presents what we think is the most convincing argument. Unfortunately, the paper is paywalled, but the submitted version, containing all the changes suggested by the peer-reviewers, can be downloaded here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When planning the article, we called it the \u201cYes, but\u201d paper. That meant, yes, most scientists think man-made CO2<\/sub> drives climate change and might be dangerous, but what about \u2026? Other articles in this special climate issue of AJES<\/em> deal with other points of view on possible man-made climate change and its potential dangers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The featured image for this post, also shown below, is part of figure 2 from the paper. It shows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index compared to the detrended HadCRUT4 global average surface temperature record, the similarity is obvious. The AMO is the North Atlantic sea surface temperature record, detrended. The AMO has been traced back to 1567AD[1]<\/a><\/sup> and is clearly a natural oscillation. The fact that it can be seen in HadCRUT4 shows that at least some of recent climate change is natural. This and other problems with the IPCC AR6 conclusions are discussed in the paper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 1. Detrended North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (the AMO) compared to detrended HadCRUT4 global average surface temperatures.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The case that human greenhouse gas emissions (mainly carbon dioxide) control the climate as claimed in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) or that the resulting climate change is dangerous, is very weak. See the quote from IPCC AR6 Working Group II (WGII) below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cHuman-induced climate change \u2026 has caused widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people, beyond natural climate variability. \u2026 The rise in weather and climate extremes has led to some irreversible impacts as natural and human systems are pushed beyond their ability to adapt (high confidence<\/em>).\u201d[2]<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

How do we show that assertion is weak? There are many options. The AR6 WGI and WGII reports define climate change as the global warming since 1750 or 1850. The period before these dates is commonly referred to as the \u201cpre-industrial period.\u201d[3]<\/a><\/sup> The Little Ice Age, a phrase rarely used in AR6,[4]<\/a><\/sup> extends from about 1300 to 1850. It was a very cold and miserable time for humanity, with a lot of well documented extreme weather in the historical record from all over the Northern Hemisphere. It was also a time of frequent famines and pandemics. We show that arguably today\u2019s climate is better than then, not worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

None-the-less, the IPCC claims that extreme weather events are worse now than in the past. However, observations do not support this. Some extreme weather events, such as the land area under extreme drought,[5]<\/a><\/sup> are decreasing, not increasing. Globally the incidence of hurricanes shows no significant trend.[6]<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Observations show no increase in damage or any danger to humanity today due to extreme weather or global warming.[7]<\/a><\/sup> Climate change mitigation, according to AR6, means curtailing the use of fossil fuels,[8]<\/a><\/sup> even though fossil fuels are still abundant and inexpensive. Since the current climate is arguably better than the pre-industrial climate and we have observed no increase in extreme weather or climate mortality, we conclude that we can plan to adapt to any future changes. Until a danger is identified, there is no need to eliminate fossil fuel use.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Works Cited<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Gray, S. T., Graumlich, L. J., Betancourt, J. L., & Pederson, G. T. (2004). A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567 A.D. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31<\/em>. doi:10.1029\/2004GL019932<\/p>\n\n\n\n

May, A., & Crok, M. (2024, May 29). Carbon dioxide and a warming climate are not problems. American Journal of Economics and Sociology<\/em>, 1-15. doi:10.1111\/ajes.12579<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additional references can be downloaded here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n

  1. (Gray, Graumlich, Betancourt, & Pederson, 2004)\u00a0    \u2191<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n

  2. (IPCC, 2022, p. 9)\u00a0    \u2191<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n

  3. The observations used to characterize the pre-industrial period are taken from 1850-1900, as these are the earliest global measurements available. (IPCC, 2021, pp. 5, footnote 9)\u00a0    \u2191<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n

  4. (IPCC, 2021, pp. 295, footnote c)\u00a0    \u2191<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n

  5. (Lomborg, 2020)\u00a0    \u2191<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n

  6. (Lomborg, 2020) and (IPCC, 2013, p. 216)\u00a0    \u2191<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n

  7. (Crok & May, The Frozen Climate Views of the IPCC, An Analysis of AR6, 2023, pp. 140-161) and (Scafetta N. , 2024)\u00a0    \u2191<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n

  8. (IPCC, 2022b, pp. v, 6-13) and (Scafetta N. , 2024)\u00a0    \u2191<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The featured image for this post, also shown below, is part of figure 2 from the paper. It shows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index compared to the detrended HadCRUT4 global average surface temperature record, the similarity is obvious. The AMO is the North Atlantic sea surface temperature record, detrended. The AMO has been traced back to 1567AD[1] and is clearly a natural oscillation. The fact that it can be seen in HadCRUT4 shows that at least some of recent climate change is natural. This and other problems with the IPCC AR6 conclusions are discussed in the paper.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":330855,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691828920,691818056,691818076,691818087,691820246],"class_list":{"0":"post-330851","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-co2","11":"tag-global-warming","12":"tag-ipcc-ar6","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0moc_diagram_f.jpg?fit=1963%2C804&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1o4j","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":380269,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=380269","url_meta":{"origin":330851,"position":0},"title":"Musings on the AMO","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"We hear a lot about the AMO, or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. How much does it influence the global mean surface temperature or GMST? Exactly what is the AMO? These are the issues we will discuss. First let\u2019s look at various definitions of the AMO.","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0AMOC_Fig_1.jpg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0AMOC_Fig_1.jpg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0AMOC_Fig_1.jpg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0AMOC_Fig_1.jpg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0AMOC_Fig_1.jpg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":380996,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=380996","url_meta":{"origin":330851,"position":1},"title":"The Bray Solar Cycle and AMO","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"31\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Trenberth and Shea further criticize the original AMO index as having no physical meaning. While this is true, it is also unbiased and not tainted with unwarranted assumptions about the cause of global warming. In this post we will show that the long-term trend evident in the raw North Atlantic\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)\"","block_context":{"text":"AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=amo-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-31.-Mai-2025-12_10_50.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-31.-Mai-2025-12_10_50.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-31.-Mai-2025-12_10_50.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-31.-Mai-2025-12_10_50.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":354072,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=354072","url_meta":{"origin":330851,"position":2},"title":"Michael Mann\u2019s Latest Attempts to Support the \u2018Hockey Stick\u2019 Graph Aren\u2019t Even Convincing Alarmists","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/12\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Atlantic hurricane season has come to an end, and the global warming believers have been looking for records to ascribe to global warming. According to a\u00a0NOAA\u00a0news report, the end-of-season flourish of cyclone activity was as predicted, and a record for the period. The\u00a0BBC Weather\u00a0commented that the activity corresponded with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800%C3%971013-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C671&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800%C3%971013-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C671&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800%C3%971013-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C671&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800%C3%971013-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C671&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800%C3%971013-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C671&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":331752,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=331752","url_meta":{"origin":330851,"position":3},"title":"All things Equal","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/06\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In an interesting linkedin debate between Tinus Pulles and me, two subjects came up that are related to one another and too complicated for a comment. First is Tinus\u2019 question, \u201cWill more atmospheric CO2, all other variables being equal, lead to a higher surface temperature.\u201d","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0SSTA_1900_2005_3840x2160.60fps_0391_print.jpg?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0SSTA_1900_2005_3840x2160.60fps_0391_print.jpg?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0SSTA_1900_2005_3840x2160.60fps_0391_print.jpg?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0SSTA_1900_2005_3840x2160.60fps_0391_print.jpg?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":364049,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=364049","url_meta":{"origin":330851,"position":4},"title":"NATURE Study: Sunshine Hours, Cloud Cover in Europe Follow Atlantic Cycles, Not CO2","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"30\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"More cloudy days forecast for 2050\u2026 in sync with the AMO\u2026 nothing to do with CO2","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/01677608569d3d0bc28c034dee0ff61407ca5cb14e6.jpg?fit=1200%2C592&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/01677608569d3d0bc28c034dee0ff61407ca5cb14e6.jpg?fit=1200%2C592&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/01677608569d3d0bc28c034dee0ff61407ca5cb14e6.jpg?fit=1200%2C592&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/01677608569d3d0bc28c034dee0ff61407ca5cb14e6.jpg?fit=1200%2C592&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/01677608569d3d0bc28c034dee0ff61407ca5cb14e6.jpg?fit=1200%2C592&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":419369,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=419369","url_meta":{"origin":330851,"position":5},"title":"Climate Change Perceptions","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/01\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), also referred to as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), is a natural, large-scale climate pattern characterized by long-term fluctuations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic Ocean. 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