{"id":330829,"date":"2024-06-01T17:01:42","date_gmt":"2024-06-01T15:01:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=330829"},"modified":"2024-06-01T17:01:44","modified_gmt":"2024-06-01T15:01:44","slug":"if-climate-change-is-making-turbulence-worse-pilots-and-planes-havent-noticed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=330829","title":{"rendered":"If climate change is making turbulence worse, pilots and planes haven\u2019t noticed\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From JoNova <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Jo Nova<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Flight Radar<\/a>\u00a0|<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The monster called \u201cclimate change turbulence\u201d is an imaginary phantom<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

At any moment there are something like 10,000 boxes cruising in the air that know when they strike turbulence.  Rumors are that these are even staffed with sentient beings.  If Climate Change was making turbulence worse, you\u2019d think pilots would have noticed?  But instead of reporting what pilots said, which is that nothing has changed, almost all the media coverage about turbulence comes from models or cherry picked reanalysis of angels dancing at 197 hectopascals over the North Atlantic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Space Agency even puts sensors on planes<\/a>. With 40 million flights per year<\/a>, tracked by radar and monitored by satellite, and reported by pilots as well,  if there were trends in clear air turbulence on passenger planes, there would be a mountain of data, and we\u2019d hear all about it. Instead all they have are modeled guesstimates and slightly worse conditions over the North Atlantic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pilots report that incidents of air turbulence are the same now as they always were<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Paul Homewood has found the US National Transportation Safety Board Report,<\/a> and actual pilot reports (PIREP data). Basically, in thirty years of flights and after more than half of mankinds total fossil fueled emissions have been emitted, there\u2019s no trend at all.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
NTSB<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

To be fair, it could just be that we\u2019re getting better at predicting turbulence so pilots are better at avoiding it. But if we\u2019re going to headline newspapers with scary stories of flight turbulence (and if we actually care about people) the most important data might be the stuff that comes from planes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Australian ABC blamed it all on the Ogre du Jour:<\/h4>\n\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

They found a Professor Troy<\/del> Todd Lane at Melbourne Uni<\/a> who talks about studies which come from Reading University. One found more clear air turbulence over the North Atlantic in the last 40 years. But it also found less<\/em> turbulence over South East Asia (see the figure from Prosser el al below). Using Believer-Correlation-Science \u2014  if climate change causes more<\/em> turbulence, then it also causes less<\/em>. Looks like extra emissions of CO2 saved lives on the Singapore Airlines flight. By the same reasoning, burn oil and protect planes in South East Asia? Clearly the ABC team didn\u2019t look at the paper, and also clearly, they didn\u2019t ask Prof Lane any difficult questions. What do we pay them or him for \u2014 witchcraft? \u201cSee the tea-leaves on the map\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, when the ABC says \u201cour<\/strong> most common flight paths\u201d (headlined above) they\u2019re not talking about our Australian flights. Who is this \u201cour\u201d?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s like there is no world outside the North Atlantic.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
The change in ERA5\u2019s 197 hPa annual-mean diagnostic-mean moderate-or-greater (MOG) clear-air turbulence (CAT) probability over 1979\u20132020, showing (a) the absolute change and (b) the relative change. The changes are diagnosed from the linear trend. Stippling indicates statistical significance at the p = 0.05 level, according to a two-sided Wald test (Fahrmeir et al., 2022) applied to the absolute change. |\u00a0Prosser et al<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The Prosser et al paper was deceptively headlined \u201cEvidence for Large Increases in Clear-Air Turbulence Over the Past Four Decades\u201d but it could as easily have said the opposite.  They dismissed the pilot reports with barely one line:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pilot reports (PIREPs) have a longer record, but are not quantitative, and the geographical distribution of CAT based on PIREPs is limited in spatial and temporal extent (Wolff & Sharman, 2008<\/a>). \u2014 Prosser et al 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Supposedly the point of the Prosser paper was to help aircraft and passengers, but actual reports from pilots: \u201cwho cares?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The other paper quoted by the ABC was a 2017 study also from the University of Reading<\/a>, and it was nothing but climate modeling and magical unverified, unvalidated, fiction:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A 2017 study predicted that severe turbulence will become<\/strong> two to three times more common over the North Atlantic<\/strong> by 2050-2080 because of climate change. However, the same study predicted a smaller increase of 50 per cent for severe turbulence over Australia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Right there in the abstract, the 2017 paper admits its all games with calculators \u2014 no data needed<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s pure fantasy extracted from models we know can\u2019t predict cloud formation<\/a> at all, or water vapor at the heights that planes fly<\/a> at. Their universal predictions of increasing humidity in the upper troposphere<\/a> are legendary failures.  The missing hot spot was called \u201ca fingerprint\u201d of man-made climate change<\/a> right up until 28 million weatherballoons showed it didn\u2019t happen<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reading Uni has a lot to answer for. One of the most prominent scientists pushing predictions of turbulent doom is Paul Williams, who wrote the 2017 paper and at least two further ones. He predicted a 55% rise in air turbulence over the North Atlantic.  But Rupa Subramanya in The Free Press<\/em><\/a>, writes that extra data wiped out the trend:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2017, he co-authored a study<\/a> that received a lot of attention, because it predicted that a rise in atmospheric CO2 could double, or even triple, incidences of severe clear air turbulence. He also published a much-publicized paper<\/a> in 2022 arguing that wind speed changes over the North Atlantic had increased in the last few decades\u2014the basis for arguing that clear air turbulence will get worse. And in another widely reported paper, published in 2023, Williams predicted<\/a> a 55 percent increase in clear air turbulence over the North Atlantic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But how solid is his link between clear air turbulence and climate change? Earlier this year, Williams co-authored a letter<\/a> to the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society<\/em>, which walked back the findings of his 2022 paper. If we include new data, the letter explained, the increase in wind speeds above the North Atlantic ceases to be \u201cstatistically significant.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where were the headlines New data shows the professor was wrong?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate models will be useful when they figure out convection, clouds, rain, humidity, storms\u2026<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Professor Lane says most of the turbulence in the tropical regions comes from thunderstorms, which are intensely more intense I tell you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He lives by a kindergarten climate rule where \u201cenergy = catastrophe\u201d, thus:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWith a warmer atmosphere, the atmosphere can hold more water, which can lead to those most intense<\/strong> thunderstorms being more intense<\/strong> with climate change. As those thunderstorms become more intense<\/strong>, they can also generate more intense<\/strong> turbulence.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Except that the biggest-storms-of-all are not more intense. Since the Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Energy Index started in 1970 CO2 has risen from an ideal 325ppm to an apocalytic 425ppm<\/a> and the global population has doubled. Fifty years of reckless \u201cpollution\u201d have been and gone and yet cyclones are still the same?<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
2024 Accumulated Cyclone Energy<\/a>\u00a0[ACE]<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Prof Lane doesn\u2019t appear to realize the water vapor hasn\u2019t made it to the upper troposphere and even if it had, \u201cmore energy\u201d is not always a disaster. There\u2019s not as much energy in Antarctica, but no one wants to live there, and we hear they still have storms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Details matter. The lower troposphere has gained water vapor from the ocean as the system warmed, but it hasn\u2019t increased in the upper troposphere where the modelers desperately need it to rise (and where those planes fly). The extra water vapor means the amount of energy held in the air is larger, but does that mean convection has increased or become more stable? After all, it\u2019s not the total energy that creates instability, it\u2019s the difference<\/em> between two regions that causes the chaos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

REFERENCE<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Prosser et al (2023) Evidence for Large Increases in Clear-Air Turbulence Over the Past Four Decades, 08 June 2023, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2023GL103814<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Williams, P.D. Increased light, moderate, and severe clear-air turbulence in response to climate change. Adv. Atmos. Sci.<\/em> 34<\/strong>, 576\u2013586 (2017). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00376-017-6268-2<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At any moment there are something like 10,000 boxes cruising in the air that know when they strike turbulence. Rumors are that these are even staffed with sentient beings. If Climate Change was making turbulence worse, you\u2019d think pilots would have noticed? But instead of reporting what pilots said, which is that nothing has changed, almost all the media coverage about turbulence comes from models or cherry picked reanalysis of angels dancing at 197 hectopascals over the North Atlantic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":330839,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691828764,691818056,691818410,691828916],"class_list":{"0":"post-330829","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-air-turbulence","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-european-space-agency","11":"tag-us-national-transportation-safety-board-report","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0large-commercial-airplane-taking-off-into-dramatic-sunset-sky-generated-by-ai-free-photo.jpg?fit=1715%2C980&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1o3X","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":219916,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=219916","url_meta":{"origin":330829,"position":0},"title":"CNN Falsely Claims Airline Turbulence Will Increase due to Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/09\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"As we have noted time and again model output is not data.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1021.png?fit=881%2C544&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1021.png?fit=881%2C544&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1021.png?fit=881%2C544&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1021.png?fit=881%2C544&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":247670,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=247670","url_meta":{"origin":330829,"position":1},"title":"Wrong, Business Insider, Climate Change Is Not Making Flying More Dangerous","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/03\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"There is no evidence linking changes in the jet stream or air turbulence to climate change. In fact, even as ridership and passenger miles have increased, the in-flight injury trend attributable to turbulence has remained relatively flat during the period of modest warming.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-442.png?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-442.png?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-442.png?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-442.png?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-442.png?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":262377,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=262377","url_meta":{"origin":330829,"position":2},"title":"No, BBC, Flight Turbulence Is NOT a Worsening Problem in Global Aviation","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"16\/06\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"An article on the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) website makes the claim that clear air turbulence (CAT) is getting worse, affecting airline flights, and the culprit is climate change. This claim is demonstrably false. Data from actual airline flights shows no increase in turbulence.","rel":"","context":"In \"AR6 report\"","block_context":{"text":"AR6 report","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ar6-report"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00air-turbulence.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00air-turbulence.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00air-turbulence.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00air-turbulence.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/00air-turbulence.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":256531,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=256531","url_meta":{"origin":330829,"position":3},"title":"Claim:\u00a0 Turbulence is Getting Worse due to Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From the camp of \u201clet\u2019s scare airline travelers without checking the data first\u201d are a number of news reports that hit the press about a month ago claiming that climate change is making aircraft turbulence worse.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0429492-Kycb.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0429492-Kycb.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, 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