{"id":330517,"date":"2024-05-29T18:18:31","date_gmt":"2024-05-29T16:18:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=330517"},"modified":"2024-05-29T18:18:35","modified_gmt":"2024-05-29T16:18:35","slug":"the-solar-cycles-a-new-physical-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=330517","title":{"rendered":"The Solar Cycles: A New Physical Model"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" data-attachment-id=\"330519\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=330519\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0solar-cycle-nasa.webp?fit=1920%2C1080&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1920,1080\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0solar-cycle-nasa\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0solar-cycle-nasa.webp?fit=723%2C407&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0solar-cycle-nasa.webp?resize=723%2C407&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-330519\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0solar-cycle-nasa.webp?resize=1024%2C576&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0solar-cycle-nasa.webp?resize=300%2C169&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0solar-cycle-nasa.webp?resize=768%2C432&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0solar-cycle-nasa.webp?resize=1536%2C864&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0solar-cycle-nasa.webp?resize=1200%2C675&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0solar-cycle-nasa.webp?w=1920&amp;ssl=1 1920w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0solar-cycle-nasa.webp?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2024\/05\/27\/the-solar-cycles-a-new-physical-model\/\">Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By Andy May<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dr. Frank Stefani and colleagues from Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden \u2013 Rossendorf and the Institute for Numerical Modelling, University of Latvia, have proposed a new physically consistent model of solar variability. It proposes that the known solar cycles, from the eleven-year Schwabe cycle to the 193-year De Vries cycle are related to planetary orbits and the 19.86-year solar oscillation around the solar system barycenter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s11207-024-02295-x\">paper<\/a>, \u201cRieger, Schwabe, Suess-de Vries: The Sunny Beats of Resonance,\u201d explains the details of the concept. The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hzdr.de\/db\/Cms?pOid=71921&amp;pNid=99\">press release<\/a>, which is easier to read, explains the implications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Astronomers and physicists have long been writing about the possible solar tidal effects of the planets, see Scafetta and Bianchini\u2019s review paper&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/articles\/10.3389\/fspas.2022.937930\/full\">here<\/a>. The planetary orbits must affect the solar plasma in some fashion and the orbital patterns do correlate to proposed solar and climate cycles. While the statistical correlation was good, the underlying physics of why it all worked remained elusive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stefani and his colleagues have created a physically consistent model of the 193-year De Vries solar and climate cycle, the longest solar cycle physically modeled to date. There are longer solar cycles, such as the famous ~2450-year&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/andymaypetrophysicist.com\/the-bray-hallstatt-cycle\/\">Bray cycle<\/a>&nbsp;and the ~1,000-year&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/andymaypetrophysicist.com\/solar-variability-and-the-earths-climate\/\">Eddy Cycle<\/a>, that have been observed but not modeled as precisely yet. This is an important start.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stefani, F., Horstmann, G.M., Klevs, M.&nbsp;<em>et al.<\/em>&nbsp;Rieger, Schwabe, Suess-de Vries: The Sunny Beats of Resonance.&nbsp;<em>Sol Phys<\/em>&nbsp;<strong>299<\/strong>, 51 (2024). <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s11207-024-02295-x\" rel=\"nofollow\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s11207-024-02295-x<\/a> (<a href=\"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s11207-024-02295-x\">link<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dr. Frank Stefani and colleagues from Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden \u2013 Rossendorf and the Institute for Numerical Modelling, University of Latvia, have proposed a new physically consistent model of solar variability. It proposes that the known solar cycles, from the eleven-year Schwabe cycle to the 193-year De Vries cycle are related to planetary orbits and the 19.86-year solar oscillation around the solar system barycenter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":330519,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691828859,691828860,691828858,691824755],"class_list":{"0":"post-330517","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-193-year-de-vries-cycle","9":"tag-dr-frank-stefani","10":"tag-eleven-year-schwabe-cycle","11":"tag-solar-cycles","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0solar-cycle-nasa.webp?fit=1920%2C1080&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1nYV","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":288673,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=288673","url_meta":{"origin":330517,"position":0},"title":"Climate, CO2, and the Sun","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From Watts Up With That? By Andy May In my\u00a0previous post\u00a0on multiple regression of known solar cycles versus HadCRUT5, I simply threw the solar cycles, ENSO, and sunspots into the regression blender and compared the result to various models that included CO2. Before reading this post, it is a good\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"CO2\"","block_context":{"text":"CO2","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0sub4_hero.jpg?fit=1200%2C531&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0sub4_hero.jpg?fit=1200%2C531&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0sub4_hero.jpg?fit=1200%2C531&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0sub4_hero.jpg?fit=1200%2C531&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0sub4_hero.jpg?fit=1200%2C531&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":431777,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=431777","url_meta":{"origin":330517,"position":1},"title":"Sun Trumps CO\u2082: New Study Shows Solar Activity Drove Most Warming Until 2000","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/03\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Frank Stefani, a researcher at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (Institute of Fluid Dynamics), has published work examining the relative roles of solar activity (using the geomagnetic aa index as a proxy) and CO\u2082 in driving global climate changes, particularly sea surface temperatures (SST). In his most recent paper (published in Atmosphere\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Sun-Trumps-CO%E2%82%82-New-Study-Shows-Solar-Activity-Drove-Most-Warming-Until-2000.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Sun-Trumps-CO%E2%82%82-New-Study-Shows-Solar-Activity-Drove-Most-Warming-Until-2000.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Sun-Trumps-CO%E2%82%82-New-Study-Shows-Solar-Activity-Drove-Most-Warming-Until-2000.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Sun-Trumps-CO%E2%82%82-New-Study-Shows-Solar-Activity-Drove-Most-Warming-Until-2000.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":254638,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=254638","url_meta":{"origin":330517,"position":2},"title":"Jupiter, Earth and Venus\u2018 tropical alignments point to the mean solar cycle length","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Earth\u2019s axial precession doesn\u2019t drive the orbit period of major solar system bodies such as Jupiter and Venus. Our finding shows the reverse; that Earth\u2019s axial precession is driven by Jupiter and Venus\u2019 entrainment of the Lunar orbit, which is the proximate cause of precession by its tidal action\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"axial precession\"","block_context":{"text":"axial precession","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=axial-precession"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-period-of-rotation.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-period-of-rotation.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-period-of-rotation.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-period-of-rotation.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-period-of-rotation.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":429506,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=429506","url_meta":{"origin":330517,"position":3},"title":"Stefani on the Sun vs. CO2 as climate drivers","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/03\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Frank Stefani, of the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, Institute of Fluid Dynamics, has published a very interesting new paper that compares the solar \u201caa\u201d index and CO2 emissions to global SST (sea surface temperatures using the HadSST4.2 dataset) and finds a CO2 sensitivity (TCR or the \u201cTransient Climate Response\u201d) of 1.1 to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0Screenshot-2026-03-04-124010.png?fit=1200%2C623&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0Screenshot-2026-03-04-124010.png?fit=1200%2C623&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0Screenshot-2026-03-04-124010.png?fit=1200%2C623&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0Screenshot-2026-03-04-124010.png?fit=1200%2C623&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0Screenshot-2026-03-04-124010.png?fit=1200%2C623&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":393316,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=393316","url_meta":{"origin":330517,"position":4},"title":"Climate Oscillations 12: The Causes &amp; Significance","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"While internal variability may play a role in our observed oscillations, it is possible that gravitational forces and changes in solar output provide the pacing of the oscillations. Since all climate oscillations clearly influence the others through a mechanism named \u201cteleconnections,\u201d if the pacing of a few of the oscillations\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"astronomical periods\"","block_context":{"text":"astronomical periods","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=astronomical-periods"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNPLSWo_KzxXKVbW7IbL7_vsFYRwpeEDr7n4wOji7EYEkkB1n0lKGSzzfQRN21EEW2YTvQtJVQSWUfh7fwAwOb_zqmvvqK2jdNxixoG7mgswXaDvyZS-6qY2mUTFO5a-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNPLSWo_KzxXKVbW7IbL7_vsFYRwpeEDr7n4wOji7EYEkkB1n0lKGSzzfQRN21EEW2YTvQtJVQSWUfh7fwAwOb_zqmvvqK2jdNxixoG7mgswXaDvyZS-6qY2mUTFO5a-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNPLSWo_KzxXKVbW7IbL7_vsFYRwpeEDr7n4wOji7EYEkkB1n0lKGSzzfQRN21EEW2YTvQtJVQSWUfh7fwAwOb_zqmvvqK2jdNxixoG7mgswXaDvyZS-6qY2mUTFO5a-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNPLSWo_KzxXKVbW7IbL7_vsFYRwpeEDr7n4wOji7EYEkkB1n0lKGSzzfQRN21EEW2YTvQtJVQSWUfh7fwAwOb_zqmvvqK2jdNxixoG7mgswXaDvyZS-6qY2mUTFO5a-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNPLSWo_KzxXKVbW7IbL7_vsFYRwpeEDr7n4wOji7EYEkkB1n0lKGSzzfQRN21EEW2YTvQtJVQSWUfh7fwAwOb_zqmvvqK2jdNxixoG7mgswXaDvyZS-6qY2mUTFO5a-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":350328,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=350328","url_meta":{"origin":330517,"position":5},"title":"Natural Climate Change Factors","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/11\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cConsensus\u201d scientists do not believe that solar variability, internal climate variability (in this model simplified to the ~67-year stadium wave), or volcanism influence net global warming or climate change since 1750, yet considerable evidence exists that these factors have an impact. I\u2019ve previously built a model of the\u00a0HadCRUT5\u00a0global average temperature\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO2)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO2)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/00Screenshot-2024-11-06-163438.png?fit=1152%2C758&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/00Screenshot-2024-11-06-163438.png?fit=1152%2C758&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/00Screenshot-2024-11-06-163438.png?fit=1152%2C758&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/00Screenshot-2024-11-06-163438.png?fit=1152%2C758&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/00Screenshot-2024-11-06-163438.png?fit=1152%2C758&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/330517","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=330517"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/330517\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":330521,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/330517\/revisions\/330521"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/330519"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=330517"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=330517"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=330517"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}