{"id":330392,"date":"2024-05-28T08:33:23","date_gmt":"2024-05-28T06:33:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=330392"},"modified":"2024-05-28T08:33:26","modified_gmt":"2024-05-28T06:33:26","slug":"the-energy-transition-wont-happen-big-tech-embraces-energy-guzzling-ai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=330392","title":{"rendered":"\u201cThe Energy Transition Won\u2019t Happen\u201d: Big Tech Embraces Energy Guzzling AI"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essay by Eric Worrall<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The driving ambition to stay on top appears to have completely overwhelmed former tech company commitments to green virtue signalling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

The \u201cEnergy Transition\u201d Won\u2019t Happen<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Foundational innovation in cloud technology and artificial intelligence will require more energy than ever before\u2014shattering any illusion that we will restrict supplies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mark P. Mills<\/a> \/ Eye on the News \/ Infrastructure and energy<\/a>,  Economy, finance, and budgets<\/a>,  Technology and Innovation<\/a>
May 23 2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The laptop class has rediscovered a basic truth: foundational innovation, once adoption proceeds at scale, is followed by an epic increase in energy consumption. It\u2019s an iron law of our universe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To illustrate that law, consider three recent examples, all vectors leading to the \u201cshocking\u201d discovery of radical increases in expected electricity demand, now occupying headlines today. First, there\u2019s the electric car, which, if there were one in every garage, as enthusiasts hope, would roughly double residential neighborhood electricity demands. Next, there\u2019s the idea of repatriating manufacturing, especially for semiconductors. This is arguably a \u201cfoundational innovation,\u201d since policymakers are suddenly showing concern over the decades-long exit of such industries from the U.S. Restoring American manufacturing to, say, the global market share of just two decades ago would see industrial electricity demand soar by 50 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And now the scions of software are discovering that both virtual reality and artificial intelligence, which emerge from the ineluctable mathematics of machine-learning algorithms, are anchored in the hard reality that everything<\/em> uses energy. This is especially true for the blazing-fast and power-hungry chips that make AI possible.<\/strong> Nvidia, the leader of the AI-chip revolution and a Wall Street darling, has over the past three years alone shipped<\/a> some 5 million high-power AI chips. To put this in perspective, every such AI chip uses roughly as much electricity each year as do three electric vehicles. And while the market appetite for electric vehicles is sagging and ultimately limited, the appetite for AI chips is explosive and essentially unlimited.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consider a recent headline<\/a> in the Wall Street Journal:<\/em> \u201cBig Tech\u2019s Latest Obsession Is Finding Enough Energy\u201d\u2014because the \u201cAI boom is fueling an insatiable appetite for electricity.\u201d And, as Reuters<\/a> reports, \u201cU.S. electric utilities predict a tidal wave of new demand . . . . Nine of the top 10 U.S. electric utilities said data centers were a main source of customer growth.<\/strong>\u201d Today\u2019s forecasts see near-term growth in demand for electric power three times as great as in recent years. Rediscovery of the iron law of growth inspired an urgent Senate<\/a> hearing on May 21 entitled \u201cOpportunities, Risks, and Challenges Associated with Growth in Demand for Electric Power in the United States.\u201d (Full disclosure; a hearing at which I testified.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Each datacenter\u2014and tens of thousands of them exist\u2014has an energy appetite often greater than skyscrapers the size of the Empire State Building. And the nearly 1,000 so-called hyperscale datacenters each consume more energy than a steel mill (and this is before counting the impacts of piling on AI chips). The incredible level of power use derives directly from the fact that just ten square feet of a datacenter today has more computing horsepower than all the world\u2019s computers circa 1980.<\/strong> And each square foot creates electric power demands 100 times<\/a> greater than a square foot<\/a> of a skyscraper. Even before the AI revolution, the world was adding tens of millions more square feet of datacenters each year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026Read more:\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.city-journal.org\/article\/the-energy-transition-wont-happen<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Bloomberg has a similar take on the situation;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Microsoft Wanted to be Carbon Negative. Then It Went Big on AI<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Microsoft is shooting for the moon on decarbonization, the moon is \u201cmore than five times as far away as it was in 2020,\u201d President Brad Smith says on Zero<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Akshat Rathi<\/a>, Dina Bass<\/a>, and Mythili Rao<\/a>
23 May 2024 at 2:05 pm AEST<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2020, Microsoft made an ambitious pledge: It would be carbon-negative by the end of the decade. The company was acting in response to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\u2019s 2018 warning that, if the world wanted to keep warming below 1.5C, emissions needed to fall fast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was an ambitious target, but at the time it seemed achievable. Now that\u2019s changed. New figures show that Microsoft\u2019s total emissions in 2023 were about 30% higher than in 2020<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The confounding factor, Microsoft President Brad Smith tells Zero<\/em> host Akshat Rathi, is artificial intelligence. After investing $1 billion in OpenAI in 2019, Microsoft has expanded its AI strategy \u2014 and its emissions have ballooned along the way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The company says it isn\u2019t abandoning its green goals, and has broadened its approach for reaching them.<\/strong> \u201cYou\u2019ve gotta be willing to invest and pay for it, you\u2019ve gotta be willing to persist,\u201d Smith said. But can the tech giant have it both ways? Rathi sat down with Zero<\/em> producer Mythili Rao to talk about his interview with Smith, and why Microsoft says the good AI can do for the world will outweigh its environmental impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026Read more:\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-05-23\/a-big-bet-on-ai-is-putting-microsoft-s-climate-targets-at-risk?embedded-checkout=true<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

This is the death of the green energy revolution we have all been waiting for. <\/strong>After 2020, tech companies have come to a shock realisation they need vast supplies of cheap energy, and fast. Tech companies still claim green energy is important to them, but personally I don\u2019t believe these claims. Tech companies are clearly preparing to downgrade green energy in favour of more energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI requires crazy amounts of power. <\/strong>All AI involves testing millions, sometimes billions of potential solutions every second of every day, to find the right response to stimuli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ever seen a wind blown leaf skitter across a pavement, and for just a moment your mind tricked you into thinking you saw a big spider? Or see a coiled rope or hose and thought you saw a snake? That illusion is a rare glimpse into how your brain works. Your brain continuously tests billions of possible solutions to interpret the flood of information being received from your senses \u2013 and occasionally gets it wrong, before rapidly correcting the mistake as more data becomes available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AIs are no different, they also continuously test billions of possible solutions to find the solution which best fits the input they receive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As AIs become more sophisticated, and demands grow for fewer mistakes, the sophistication and depth of the potential solutions being tested and discarded will rise exponentially. The energy required to run computers to calculate all these potential solutions will be unimaginable in today\u2019s terms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just look at how bitcoin mining nowadays consumes more energy than some small countries<\/a>, with millions of computers across the world testing and discarding uncounted billions of potential solutions to Bitcoin cryptography puzzles, to find that one solution which earns newly minted bitcoins for their operators. Bitcoin mining is just a taste of the energy expenditure the AI revolution will demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is no path to green energy delivering the required magnitude of power, on anything like the timeframe tech companies need to stay competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tech companies know they need access to a vast increase in energy generation, and they need it fast, otherwise energy rich Asian AI companies will wipe the floor with them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Media companies are desperate for front row access to artificial intelligence<\/strong>, to cut newsroom costs and prevent their rivals in India and China from using AI to identify which stories will draw the most audience attention, to identify tomorrow\u2019s big news stories before anyone else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Financial giants in New York, Chicago and San Francisco also have skyrocketing AI needs<\/strong>, to power their automated trading systems, and help them maintain their income, to help them keep winning in the cutthroat financial games they play against AI augmented rivals in Asia and Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The funniest part of this tech company backflip is all the lefty companies which helped Biden win are likely now quietly in President Trump\u2019s corner<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This surge in demand for energy to drive AI technology is very new, it likely took most of them by surprise. from the Bloomberg article quoted above, as recently as 2020 people in charge of big US tech companies were oblivious to how their energy needs would suddenly skyrocket.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I wonder what phone calls are quietly being made in places like New York, San Francisco and Chicago? Are obstacles to Trump 2024 quietly being dismantled<\/strong>, by people making backroom deals, former Democrat supporters who have come to the shock realisation that they need access to cheap energy more than they need green virtue signalling?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDrill, baby, drill\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The \u201cEnergy Transition\u201d Won\u2019t Happen. This is the death of the green energy revolution we have all been waiting for.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":291242,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691823433,691818618,691828831],"class_list":["post-330392","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-ai-artificial-intelligence-2","tag-energy-transition","tag-green-energy-revolution","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0nothing-to-see-here-move-along.jpg?fit=1366%2C768&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1nWU","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":417701,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417701","url_meta":{"origin":330392,"position":0},"title":"Environmental Groups Urge Congress to Ban Data Centers","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/18\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Environmental groups seek to halt data center construction in the United States, warning that data centers consume enormous quantities of electricity and water and contribute to climate change. 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But AI did not spring out of the heavens. 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Leaders tell us that without a complete transformation of electric power, transportation, and home appliances to achieve Net Zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, we are doomed to suffer from increasingly severe climate change impacts.","rel":"","context":"In \"CO2\"","block_context":{"text":"CO2","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0download1800x1100.webp?fit=1200%2C733&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0download1800x1100.webp?fit=1200%2C733&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0download1800x1100.webp?fit=1200%2C733&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0download1800x1100.webp?fit=1200%2C733&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0download1800x1100.webp?fit=1200%2C733&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/330392","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=330392"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/330392\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":330396,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/330392\/revisions\/330396"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/291242"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=330392"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=330392"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=330392"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}