{"id":330200,"date":"2024-05-27T09:13:57","date_gmt":"2024-05-27T07:13:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=330200"},"modified":"2024-05-27T09:14:01","modified_gmt":"2024-05-27T07:14:01","slug":"blackouts-beckon-calm-nights-mean-wind-solar-transition-nothing-but-grand-delusion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=330200","title":{"rendered":"Blackouts Beckon: Calm Nights Mean Wind &amp; Solar \u2018Transition\u2019 Nothing But Grand\u00a0Delusion"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"470\" data-attachment-id=\"330208\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=330208\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/00-blackout-GettyImages-466231145-770.jpg?fit=1959%2C1272&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1959,1272\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;\\u00a9 Stephen Hancock 2013&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"00-blackout-GettyImages-466231145-770\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/00-blackout-GettyImages-466231145-770.jpg?fit=723%2C470&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/00-blackout-GettyImages-466231145-770.jpg?resize=723%2C470&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-330208\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/00-blackout-GettyImages-466231145-770.jpg?resize=1024%2C665&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/00-blackout-GettyImages-466231145-770.jpg?resize=300%2C195&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/00-blackout-GettyImages-466231145-770.jpg?resize=768%2C499&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/00-blackout-GettyImages-466231145-770.jpg?resize=1536%2C997&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/00-blackout-GettyImages-466231145-770.jpg?resize=1200%2C779&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/00-blackout-GettyImages-466231145-770.jpg?w=1959&amp;ssl=1 1959w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/00-blackout-GettyImages-466231145-770.jpg?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/stopthesethings.com\/2024\/05\/25\/blackouts-beckon-calm-nights-mean-wind-solar-transition-nothing-but-grand-delusion\/\">STOP THESE THINGS<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"431\" data-attachment-id=\"330201\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=330201\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-555.png?fit=1113%2C663&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1113,663\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-555\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-555.png?fit=723%2C431&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-555.png?resize=723%2C431&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-330201\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-555.png?resize=1024%2C610&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-555.png?resize=300%2C179&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-555.png?resize=768%2C457&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-555.png?w=1113&amp;ssl=1 1113w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rent-seekers and the wind and sun cult who run with them are in a flat panic as they realise that their game is up. Mouthing off about an \u2018inevitable transition\u2019 to an all wind and sun powered future was always going to come unstuck. Reality has a tendency of biting back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Every calm night (ie no sun and no wind) reveals the inherent (and natural) defect of attempting to rely on wind and solar, a defect which becomes glaringly obvious to those with the vaguest interest about where their power comes from.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That interest tends to be heightened during \u2018demand management\u2019 exercises aka load shedding (while the grid manager is in control) and mass blackouts \u2013 when wind and solar chaos reigns supreme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Those in on the scam are evidently concerned that the next mass blackout will result in a return to energy policy sanity; hence the headless chickens approach being taken by Australia\u2019s Energy Market Operator, among others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Note the bluff, bluster and spin in the first piece from The Australian from those responsible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Note also their steadfast refusal to refer to the elephant in the room: calm nights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And their claims about building thousands of kilometres of extra transmission grid fixing the problem, fall hollow by reference to a simple graphic, courtesy of the boys over at&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/anero.id\/energy\/wind-energy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Aneroid Energy<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Depicted above is the daily output from every wind turbine connected to Australia\u2019s Eastern Grid \u2013 spread over an enormous expanse from Far North Queensland to Tasmania and South Australia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Note the sudden 3,000-4,000 MW collapses from the peaks of the troughs \u2013 perfectly explained by calm weather.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Note too the troughs associated with each regular collapse show output of around 200MW and 2,000MW \u2013 out of a total notional capacity of 11,409MW.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That is, on regular occasions \u2013 dozens of times each month \u2013 Australia\u2019s fleet of whirling wonders are producing between 1.7% and 17% of their total capacity. The missing 80 to 98% isn\u2019t coming from mega-batteries or pumped hydro (and never will). It\u2019s coming from coal, gas, diesel and kerosene. In that order.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No amount of huffing, puffing or spinning will ever change that fact. More batteries won\u2019t fix it and running extension cords between States will make no difference, at all. Nor will adding the thousands of turbines and millions of solar panels promised by Labor\u2019s delusional plans to build a \u201crenewable energy superpower\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the current trajectory, Australians will be lucky to have any power, at all. Welcome to your all wind and sun powered future!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Blackout risks: A nation lost in energy transition<\/strong><br>The Australian<br>Joe Kelly and Perry Williams<br>20 May 2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Electricity users face a heightened risk of blackouts during peak \u00addemand in NSW and Victoria this summer, with the energy market operator forced to bid for \u00ademergency supplies amid delays in new transmission lines and \u00adrenewables projects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The prospect of holiday power outages during a cost-of-living crisis will ramp up the pre-election contest over Labor\u2019s vision to transform Australia into a \u00adrenewable-energy superpower, overhaul fuel-efficiency standards for new cars and pour billions of taxpayer funds into emerging \u00adindustries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One week after the budget handed $300 power bill rebates to every household [read: taxpayers paying themselves with the taxes they\u2019ve already paid], a new energy market update says reliability gaps have deteriorated in the two most populous states and will decline through the decade in South \u00adAustralia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forecast will raise concerns over a choppy transition to greener power as the bulk of \u00adAustralia\u2019s coal power stations are retired this decade, and the \u00adgovernment proceeds with plans to deploy 32 gigawatts of renewable and clean dispatchable capacity by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Australian Energy Market Operator blamed the worsening outlook on a series of delays, including a year-long lag in delivering the EnergyConnect power cable between NSW and South Australia and a similar delay to the state\u2019s Central West Orana transmission line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Multiple hold-ups to battery, hydro-storage, wind and solar projects have all added to the tighter outlook while the shutdown of gas and diesel generation in South Australia will lead to a supply squeeze in Victoria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The revised outlook from AEMO lands amid heated debate over the role of gas, which has split the Labor Party and ignited a fresh political row with the Greens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The government last week committed to the fuel source \u00adremaining a key part of the energy mix to 2050 and beyond.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Last week, Labor also teamed up with the Greens to ditch changes aimed at fixing the \u201cbroken\u201d offshore gas approvals \u00adsystem in return for the passage of its petroleum resource rent tax changes and the introduction of tough standards reducing emissions for new passenger vehicles by more than 60 per cent by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Given the looming reliability risks, AEMO will on Tuesday put out a call to the market for emergency power supplies for NSW and Victoria to minimise the risk of blackouts during peak demand in the 2024-25 summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NSW faces a reliability gap of more than 1000 megawatts of power from 2025-26, which widens to more than 3000MW in 2032-33. The figures underscore the challenge for Australia of more than doubling its renewable capacity to achieve Labor\u2019s target of 82 per cent by 2030 while keeping a lid on household bills at a time of cost-of-living stress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWhile new generation and storage capacity continues to increase, project development and commissioning delays are impacting reliability throughout the \u00adhorizon,\u201d said AEMO chief executive Daniel Westerman. [twaddle: see the simple graphic above]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Peter Dutton used his budget reply speech on Thursday to \u00adenshrine reliable and affordable energy as one of the central political battlegrounds of the next \u00adelection along with housing and migration. The Opposition Leader accused Labor of betraying the public over its vow to reduce power bills by $275 a year by 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mr Dutton warned that spiralling power prices would undermine Labor\u2019s new Future Made in Australia agenda, shutting down manufacturers or sending them offshore. He blasted the government for forcing the nation into relying on \u201cweather-dependent energy\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Anthony Albanese has sought to defuse anger over rising electricity bills by committing to the delivery of $300 subsidies for every household \u2013 a tactic also aimed at lowering inflation \u2013 while committing billions to the development of emerging industries critical to achieving the net-zero transformation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AEMO pointed to a giant pipeline of green projects expected to be delivered to the market in the next decade along with unprecedented intervention from both state and federal governments to avoid a bumpy path to a renewable-powered grid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Its updated electricity outlook does not include federal or state government energy programs nor a 280-gigawatt pipeline of proposed generation and storage projects in development stages, representing nearly five times the currency capacity of the national electricity market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AEMO said the report highlighted a call for \u201ctimely\u201d investment in projects to generate, store and share electricity to manage reliability risks from retiring coal plants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A plan is also expected in NSW this week to confirm that Eraring \u2013 Australia\u2019s biggest coal-power station \u2013 may stay open for four more years, with the NSW government working on a safety-net solution to head off the threat of blackouts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Market executives have warned that allowing the state\u2019s largest source of electricity \u2013 typically producing about a quarter of NSW\u2019s electricity \u2013 would stoke prices for households and businesses buckling under high interest rates and soaring inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Coal is still the dominant source of electricity in Australia, with its 20GW of capacity accounting for about 60 per cent of all power. To replace coal, Australia will need to build more capacity than the amount of coal in the system due to the intermittent source of renewable energy.<br><em><strong>The Australian<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"482\" data-attachment-id=\"330203\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=330203\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-556.png?fit=862%2C575&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"862,575\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-556\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-556.png?fit=723%2C482&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-556.png?resize=723%2C482&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-330203\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-556.png?w=862&amp;ssl=1 862w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-556.png?resize=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-556.png?resize=768%2C512&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">What\u2019s really keeping the lights on \u2013 for now\u2026<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>AEMO\u2019s summer blackout predictions give Anthony Albanese another reason for an early poll<\/strong><br>The Australian<br>Simon Benson<br>20 May 2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Anthony Albanese has just been given another reason to consider going to an election before Christmas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If the energy market operator is right, the lights are going to go out across much of eastern mainland Australia over summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The last thing Labor would want is more colour added to the energy nightmare it is already presiding over as it prepares for an election year. But that is what is about to happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are no prizes for guessing what the problem is: The failure by state and federal Labor governments to address the reliability of the national electricity market in anticipation of coal\u2019s exit. The Australian Energy Market Operator\u2019s report is clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Reliability has deteriorated in NSW, Victoria and South Australia over the past year, forcing it to warn it will have to bid for emergency power reserves to keep the lights on over summer in the two largest states of NSW and Victoria. South Australia is also again in trouble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Once again, it is calling for new generation, transmission and storage assets such as \u00adbatteries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But then it says there are only limited locations where new supply will actually add benefit to system reliability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s little wonder that the Prime Minister performed his second political volte-face of the year two weeks ago \u2013 the tax cuts being the first \u2013 when he overturned Labor\u2019s energy policy and announced a new gas plan out to 2050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This plan is almost indistinguishable from the Morrison government\u2019s net-zero plan to use gas as the transition fuel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is an admission that Labor\u2019s renewable energy plan just isn\u2019t going to get the job done if keeping the lights on and prices lower are the priorities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That he was forced to legislatively retreat last week by the Greens is inconsequential. He simply announced that he would legislate it later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the AEMO report highlights the desperation creeping into the government camp on \u00adenergy reliability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s one thing to hand out $300 to households, but this may do \u00adlittle to ameliorate the anger if those households don\u2019t have power to be subsidised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Peter Dutton\u2019s energy plans for gas and nuclear to shore up \u00adrenewables is starting to come into sharper focus. Details are being kept back, but the Liberal leader won\u2019t be able to keep this up for long.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If reliability issues continue in the NEM, Dutton\u2019s case for more non-renewable dispatchable power will only become stronger.<br><em><strong>The Australian<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"400\" data-attachment-id=\"330204\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=330204\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-557.png?fit=640%2C400&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,400\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-557\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-557.png?fit=640%2C400&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-557.png?resize=640%2C400&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-330204\" style=\"width:760px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-557.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-557.png?resize=300%2C188&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Powering the nation on wing and a prayer<\/strong><br>Graham Lloyd<br>The Australian<br>20 May 2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The electricity network in Australia \u2013 a fossil fuel energy superpower \u2013 is increasingly held together with hopes, tissue paper and spit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The latest warning from the Australian Energy Market Operator is that things are worse than was predicted only a few months ago. It is the story of the renewable energy transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Battery, wind and solar projects have struggled to get from promise to reality. The electricity grid network is not designed for what it increasingly is being asked to do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The situation can only be saved by many billions of dollars worth of further investment supported by a long list of government subsidy programs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AEMO has abandoned subtlety and all discretion. It highlights the \u201curgency for the timely delivery of transmission, generation and storage, and use consumer electricity resources to support the grid\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AEMO chief executive Daniel Westerman tells us what we already know: \u201cProject development and commissioning delays are impacting reliability throughout the horizon.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Households, and their yet to be purchased electric cars, are now a key part of keeping the lights on in future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Reliability risks have increased in the two most populous states, NSW and Victoria, from 2024-25 to 2027-28 and increased in South Australia in 2026-27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The situation has become so dire AEMO will tender for \u201cinterim reliability reserves\u201d as early as the coming year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The long-term solution, AEMO says, lies in state and federal governments opening the taxpayer wallet through a myriad of high-cost schemes; a federal capacity investment scheme to underwrite the profitability of big projects. Progress on the stalled NSW electricity infrastructure roadmap. A Queensland energy and jobs plan. A fresh Victoria renewable energy target, storage target, offshore wind policy or investments by a nationalised state electricity commission. And further developments to support the federal government\u2019s Powering Australia Plan commitment to increase renewable energy generation to 82 per cent of supply by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As well as a shortfall of generation projects, the AEMO report highlights two more inconvenient truths.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There will need to be new investment in ancillary services to replace the benefits of having big baseload plants operating on the grid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cOver the coming decade, the rapid energy transition will result in a significant need for new assets and providers of these essential system services, including for system strength, frequency management, voltage control, ramping capability, and system restoration services\u201d, AEMO says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And, such is the state of the electricity network, there currently are limited options for where new supply can be added to make a difference when things get tight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWithout further transmission development there are limited locations in each mainland region that can support new generation and storage that will benefit power system reliability,\u201d AEMO says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The report paints a picture of a low emissions transition that is being planned belatedly and on the run. The track record of delivery does not give confidence that, left unchecked, things will improve anytime soon.<br><em><strong>The Australian<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" data-attachment-id=\"330206\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=330206\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-558.png?fit=976%2C549&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"976,549\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-558\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-558.png?fit=723%2C407&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-558.png?resize=723%2C407&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-330206\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-558.png?w=976&amp;ssl=1 976w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-558.png?resize=300%2C169&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-558.png?resize=768%2C432&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rent-seekers and the wind and sun cult who run with them are in a flat panic as they realise that their game is up. Mouthing off about an \u2018inevitable transition\u2019 to an all wind and sun powered future was always going to come unstuck. Reality has a tendency of biting back.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":330208,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819276,691818279,691818656,691818618],"class_list":["post-330200","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-australias-eastern-grid","tag-blackouts","tag-electricity","tag-energy-transition","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/00-blackout-GettyImages-466231145-770.jpg?fit=1959%2C1272&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1nTO","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":242300,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=242300","url_meta":{"origin":330200,"position":0},"title":"Total Frauds: Routine Collapses Mean Wind &#038; Solar Deliver Net Zero Power On Daily Basis","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/30\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Believe the narrative run by the MSM on behalf of the wind and solar rent seekers and their political enablers, you\u2019d think we\u2019ve already reached our \u2018green\u2019 energy nirvana.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-1306.png?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-1306.png?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-1306.png?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-1306.png?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-1306.png?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":254165,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=254165","url_meta":{"origin":330200,"position":1},"title":"Why 100% Wind &#038; Solar 100% Guarantees Blackouts and Rocketing Power Prices","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/22\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"No civilised country has ever powered itself entirely with wind and solar; no country ever will. And yet the grand wind and solar \u2018transition\u2019 \u2013 being peddled by rent-seekers and crony capitalists \u2013 is still taken as an article of faith by the na\u00efve and gullible.","rel":"","context":"In \"Batterie\"","block_context":{"text":"Batterie","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=batterie"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-windfarm-fire.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-windfarm-fire.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-windfarm-fire.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-windfarm-fire.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-windfarm-fire.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":271685,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=271685","url_meta":{"origin":330200,"position":2},"title":"Biden\u2019s Impossible Dream: US Wind &amp; Solar Energy \u2018Transition\u2019 Pure\u00a0Fantasy","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Believe the MSM, and you\u2019d think that the grand wind and solar \u2018transition\u2019 is a race that\u2019s already won. Peel the onion back, however, and you\u2019ll find a very different picture, indeed. The wilder claims from rent-seekers the louder the cheers of witless approval from the stands.","rel":"","context":"In \"cost of batteries\"","block_context":{"text":"cost of batteries","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=cost-of-batteries"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-160.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-160.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-160.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-160.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-160.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":253442,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=253442","url_meta":{"origin":330200,"position":3},"title":"Political Power Failure: 88% of Germans Reckon Wind &#038; Solar \u201aTransition\u2018 Doomed to Failure","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/17\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Germans were said to be rock-solid supporters of the grand \u2018plan\u2019 to run on nothing but wind and solar. Well, not anymore.","rel":"","context":"In \"Blackouts\"","block_context":{"text":"Blackouts","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=blackouts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0burn-baby-burn-745.jpeg?fit=1201%2C799&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0burn-baby-burn-745.jpeg?fit=1201%2C799&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0burn-baby-burn-745.jpeg?fit=1201%2C799&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0burn-baby-burn-745.jpeg?fit=1201%2C799&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0burn-baby-burn-745.jpeg?fit=1201%2C799&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":259456,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=259456","url_meta":{"origin":330200,"position":4},"title":"Wind &amp; Solar \u2018Industries\u2019 Furious as French Demand More Nuclear Power\u00a0Generation","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/28\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The rent-seekers profiting from the wind and solar scam hate nuclear power with a visceral passion. Nuclear power doesn\u2019t generate carbon dioxide gas, so they can\u2019t rant about \u2018carbon pollution\u2019 and \u2018catastrophic climate change\u2019, as they do when they\u2019re out to sink the prospects of coal and gas-fired power generators.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00nogent-sunset.jpg?fit=1200%2C563&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00nogent-sunset.jpg?fit=1200%2C563&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00nogent-sunset.jpg?fit=1200%2C563&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00nogent-sunset.jpg?fit=1200%2C563&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00nogent-sunset.jpg?fit=1200%2C563&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":238646,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=238646","url_meta":{"origin":330200,"position":5},"title":"Climate Changed: Calm, Gloomy Weather Killing Europe\u2019s Grand Wind &#038; Solar \u2018Transition\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/09\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"In the mother of all ironies, Europe\u2019s wind and sun cult are complaining about uncooperative weather. The Germans have even coined a word for it: \u2018dunkelflaute\u2019 \u2013 meaning a period of gloomy, windless weather. Which, in reality, means little or nothing by way of output from their more than 30,000\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/0wind-turbines.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/0wind-turbines.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/0wind-turbines.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/0wind-turbines.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/0wind-turbines.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/330200","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=330200"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/330200\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":330210,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/330200\/revisions\/330210"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/330208"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=330200"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=330200"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=330200"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}