{"id":330090,"date":"2024-05-26T10:11:01","date_gmt":"2024-05-26T08:11:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=330090"},"modified":"2024-05-26T10:11:05","modified_gmt":"2024-05-26T08:11:05","slug":"noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=330090","title":{"rendered":"NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"723\" data-attachment-id=\"330098\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=330098\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?fit=2048%2C2048&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"2048,2048\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0-Hurricane\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?fit=723%2C723&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?resize=723%2C723&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-330098\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?resize=1024%2C1024&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?resize=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?resize=768%2C768&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?resize=1536%2C1536&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?resize=1200%2C1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?resize=800%2C800&amp;ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?resize=600%2C600&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?resize=400%2C400&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?resize=200%2C200&amp;ssl=1 200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?resize=450%2C450&amp;ssl=1 450w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?resize=60%2C60&amp;ssl=1 60w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?resize=550%2C550&amp;ssl=1 550w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?w=2048&amp;ssl=1 2048w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2024\/05\/23\/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season\/\">Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/news-release\/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season\">From NOAA<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em>La Nina and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures are major drivers of tropical activity<\/em><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" data-attachment-id=\"330092\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=330092\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Image-satellite-Hurricane-Idalia-0501pmEDT-082923-NOAA-hero.webp?fit=1275%2C717&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1275,717\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0Image-satellite-Hurricane-Idalia-0501pmEDT-082923-NOAA-hero\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Image-satellite-Hurricane-Idalia-0501pmEDT-082923-NOAA-hero.webp?fit=723%2C407&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Image-satellite-Hurricane-Idalia-0501pmEDT-082923-NOAA-hero.webp?resize=723%2C407&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-330092\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Image-satellite-Hurricane-Idalia-0501pmEDT-082923-NOAA-hero.webp?resize=1024%2C576&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Image-satellite-Hurricane-Idalia-0501pmEDT-082923-NOAA-hero.webp?resize=300%2C169&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Image-satellite-Hurricane-Idalia-0501pmEDT-082923-NOAA-hero.webp?resize=768%2C432&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Image-satellite-Hurricane-Idalia-0501pmEDT-082923-NOAA-hero.webp?resize=1200%2C675&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Image-satellite-Hurricane-Idalia-0501pmEDT-082923-NOAA-hero.webp?w=1275&amp;ssl=1 1275w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">NOAA\u2019s GOES-16 satellite captured Hurricane Idalia approaching the western coast of Florida while Hurricane Franklin churned in the Atlantic Ocean at 5:01 p.m. EDT on August 29, 2023.\u00a0(Image credit: NOAA Satellites)<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/media\/image_download\/1e643e0a-8fab-4b4f-8982-5b743223cf00\">Download Image<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>RESOURCES<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/2024-05\/IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-SPANISH-Pie-052324-NOAA.png\">Spanish language infographic: 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook summary<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/2024-05\/IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-SPANISH-Names-052324-NOAA.png\">Spanish language infographic: List of 2024 Atlantic tropical cyclone names chosen by WMO<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>NOAA\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/news-release\/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-ranks-4th-for-most-named-storms-in-year\">summary of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>NOAA\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/news-release\/noaa-launches-new-hurricane-forecast-model-as-atlantic-season-starts-strong\">new hurricane forecast model<\/a>, HAFS\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncei.noaa.gov\/access\/billions\/mapping\">mapping tool<\/a>\u00a0for U.S. state and county-level information on a population\u2019s risk for, and vulnerability to, major tropical cyclones<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>An\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nesdis.noaa.gov\/real-time-imagery\/hurricane-tracker\">interactive website to track the paths of hurricane<\/a>s this season<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncei.noaa.gov\/access\/metadata\/landing-page\/bin\/iso?id=gov.noaa.ncdc:C00694\">Updated U.S. Hurricane Strikes Poster, 1950-2023<\/a>\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Links to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/hurricane-prep\">hurricane safety and preparedness materials<\/a>\u00a0materials<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.hurricanes.gov\/\">National Hurricane Center<\/a>\u00a0homepage for real-time updates on active systems: Bookmark <a href=\"http:\/\/www.hurricanes.gov\" rel=\"nofollow\">http:\/\/www.hurricanes.gov<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/\">Climate Prediction Center<\/a>&nbsp;predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA\u2019s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.<br><br>The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"447\" data-attachment-id=\"330093\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=330093\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Pie-052324-NOAA.webp?fit=3840%2C2373&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"3840,2373\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Pie-052324-NOAA\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Pie-052324-NOAA.webp?fit=723%2C447&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Pie-052324-NOAA.webp?resize=723%2C447&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-330093\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Pie-052324-NOAA.webp?resize=1024%2C633&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Pie-052324-NOAA.webp?resize=300%2C185&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Pie-052324-NOAA.webp?resize=768%2C475&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Pie-052324-NOAA.webp?resize=1536%2C949&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Pie-052324-NOAA.webp?resize=2048%2C1266&amp;ssl=1 2048w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Pie-052324-NOAA.webp?resize=1200%2C742&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Pie-052324-NOAA.webp?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Pie-052324-NOAA.webp?w=2169&amp;ssl=1 2169w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA\u2019s 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.\u00a0(Image credit: NOAA)<a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/media\/image_download\/7bdc739c-74bf-4e06-be09-cd05832674fe\">Download Image<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWith another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA\u2019s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering,\u201d said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. \u201cAI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone are just two examples of the proactive steps our agency is taking to meet our mission of saving lives and protecting property.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cSevere weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today,\u201d said FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks. \u201cAlready, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"450\" data-attachment-id=\"330095\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=330095\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Names-052324-NOAA.webp?fit=3840%2C2388&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"3840,2388\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Names-052324-NOAA\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Names-052324-NOAA.webp?fit=723%2C450&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Names-052324-NOAA.webp?resize=723%2C450&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-330095\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Names-052324-NOAA.webp?resize=1024%2C637&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Names-052324-NOAA.webp?resize=300%2C187&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Names-052324-NOAA.webp?resize=768%2C478&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Names-052324-NOAA.webp?resize=1536%2C955&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Names-052324-NOAA.webp?resize=2048%2C1274&amp;ssl=1 2048w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Names-052324-NOAA.webp?resize=1200%2C746&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Names-052324-NOAA.webp?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2024-ENGLISH-Names-052324-NOAA.webp?w=2169&amp;ssl=1 2169w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">A summary graphic showing an alphabetical list of the 2024 Atlantic tropical cyclone names as selected by the World Meteorological Organization. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs through November 30.\u00a0(Image credit: NOAA)<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/media\/image_download\/db44c4dd-6edb-4713-bb8c-e1df0b706eaa\">Download Image<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/blogs\/enso\/impacts-el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-hurricane-season#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20enhanced%20vertical,and%20increasing%20the%20atmospheric%20stability.\">La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity<\/a>&nbsp;because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This hurricane season also features the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms. Finally, light trade winds allow hurricanes to grow in strength without the disruption of strong wind shear, and also minimize ocean cooling. Human-caused climate change is warming our ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge. Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on the damage potential from a given hurricane.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Enhanced communications in store for 2024 season<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NOAA will implement improvements to its forecast communications, decision support and storm recovery efforts this season. These include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will expand its offering of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/translate\/\">Spanish language text products<\/a>\u00a0to include all Public Advisories, the Tropical Cyclone Discussion, the Tropical Cyclone Update and Key Messages in the Atlantic basin.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Beginning on or around August 15, NHC will start to issue an\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/pdf\/NHC_Cone_Graphic_Change_Announcement.pdf\">experimental version of the forecast cone graphic<\/a>\u00a0that includes a depiction of inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental U.S. Research indicates that the addition of inland watches and warnings to the cone graphic will help communicate inland hazards during tropical cyclone events without overcomplicating the current version of the graphic.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This season, the NHC will be able to issue U.S. tropical cyclone watches and warnings with regular or intermediate public advisories. This means that if updates to watches and warnings for storm surge or winds are needed, the NHC will be able to notify the public in an intermediate advisory instead of having to wait for the next full advisory issued every 6 hours.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>New tools for hurricane analysis and forecasting this year<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Two new forecast models developed by NOAA researchers will go into operation this season: The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/sti\/oceanmodeling\">Modular Ocean Model or MOM6<\/a>\u00a0will be added to the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System to improve the representation of the key role the ocean plays in driving hurricane intensity. Another model,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aoml.noaa.gov\/hurricane-modeling-prediction\/#:~:text=One%20such%20model,SHIPS%2DRII%20tool.\">SDCON<\/a>, will predict the probability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>NOAA\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/water.noaa.gov\/#@=-91.7128439,38.6337147,3.6294214&amp;b=topographic&amp;g=obsFcst,1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!0!0!0!0!0,0.5,1!1!1!1!0,0,0&amp;ab=0,0,\">new generation of Flood Inundation Mapping,\u00a0<\/a>made possible through President Biden\u2019s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, will provide information to emergency and water managers to prepare and respond to potential flooding and help local officials better prepare to protect people and infrastructure.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/#page=ovw\">NOAA\u2019s Weather Prediction Center<\/a>, in partnership with the NHC, will issue an experimental rainfall graphic for the Caribbean and Central America during the 2024 hurricane season. This graphic provides forecast rainfall totals associated with a tropical cyclone or disturbance for a specified time period.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>System upgrades in operation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NOAA will upgrade its observing systems critical in understanding and forecasting hurricanes. These projects will provide more observations of the ocean and atmosphere in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, on the U.S. East Coast and in the tropical Atlantic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>NOAA\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndbc.noaa.gov\/\">National Data Buoy Center recently upgraded many coastal weather buoys\u00a0<\/a>in the tropical western Atlantic and Caribbean to include time of occurrence and measurements of one-minute wind speed and direction, 5-second peak wind gust and direction\u00a0and lowest 1-minute barometric pressure to support tropical cyclone forecasting.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>New this year,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.omao.noaa.gov\/aircraft-operations\/noaa-hurricane-hunters\">NOAA will gather additional observations using Directional Wave Spectra Drifters (DWSDs), deployed from the NOAA P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft<\/a>\u00a0and in the vicinity of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/research.noaa.gov\/2022\/08\/03\/noaa-and-saildrone-team-up-to-deploy-seven-hurricane-tracking-surface-drones\/\">Saildrones<\/a>, uncrewed surface vehicles which will be deployed at the start of the hurricane season, providing one-minute data in real time. 11-12 Saildrones are planned for deployment in 2024.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Starting in June, dozens of observational underwater gliders are planned to deploy in waters off the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the eastern U.S. coast. Additionally, a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/research.noaa.gov\/2023\/06\/28\/noaa-deploys-drones-in-the-ocean-and-atmosphere-to-advance-hurricane-forecasting\/\">new lightweight dropsonde called Streamsonde will be deployed into developing tropical storms<\/a>, collecting multiple real-time observations to collect valuable wind data.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The CHAOS (Coordinated Hurricane Atmosphere-Ocean Sampling) research experiment aims to improve the understanding of air-sea interactions, providing sustained monitoring of key ocean features.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About NOAA seasonal outlooks<\/strong><br><br>NOAA\u2019s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. In addition to the Atlantic seasonal outlook, NOAA also issues seasonal hurricane outlooks for the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/Epac_hurr\/index.shtml\">eastern Pacific<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/news-release\/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2024-central-pacific-hurricane-season\">central Pacific<\/a>&nbsp;and western north Pacific hurricane basins.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2024 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Climate, weather, and water affect all life on our ocean planet.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/about-our-agency\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">NOAA\u2019s mission<\/a>&nbsp;is to understand and predict our changing environment, from the deep sea to outer space, and to manage and conserve America\u2019s coastal and marine resources.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/YG6d4j_a28o?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA\u2019s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":330098,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691828787,691818104,691818397],"class_list":{"0":"post-330090","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season","9":"tag-hurricanes","10":"tag-noaa","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?fit=2048%2C2048&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1nS2","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":212274,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=212274","url_meta":{"origin":330090,"position":0},"title":"NOAA still expects above-normal Atlantic hurricane season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"We like a prediction, so we\u2019ll see how this one goes after \u201aa relatively slow start to hurricane season, with no major storms developing in the Atlantic\u2018. NOAA\u2019s\u00a0ENSO blog\u00a0says \u201aLa Ni\u00f1a suppresses hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and enhances it in the Atlantic basin\u2018, which influences\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0nina_wind.jpg?fit=777%2C485&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0nina_wind.jpg?fit=777%2C485&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0nina_wind.jpg?fit=777%2C485&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0nina_wind.jpg?fit=777%2C485&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":201255,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=201255","url_meta":{"origin":330090,"position":1},"title":"NOAA Predicts Above-Normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/05\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Ongoing La Ni\u00f1a, above-average Atlantic temperatures set the stage for busy season ahead May 24, 2022 Forecasters at NOAA\u2019s\u00a0Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above-average hurricane activity this year \u2014 which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA\u2019s outlook for the\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0image-45.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0image-45.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0image-45.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0image-45.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":259473,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=259473","url_meta":{"origin":330090,"position":2},"title":"NOAA predicts a near-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"28\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Hurricanes are only neat and exciting when they are happening someplace else to someone else.\u00a0 Up close, they are dangerous even for those well prepared.","rel":"","context":"In \"Hurricanes\"","block_context":{"text":"Hurricanes","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=hurricanes"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":212140,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=212140","url_meta":{"origin":330090,"position":3},"title":"NOAA still expects above-normal Atlantic hurricane season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"From NOAA Collage depicts hurricane storm surge, Acting NOAA National Hurricane Center Director Jamie Rhome presenting a forecast, evacuation route sign and Hurricane Hunter pilot flying into a storm.\u00a0(NOAA)Download Image Atmospheric and oceanic conditions still favor an above-normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, according to NOAA\u2019s annual mid-season update issued today\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0Screenshot-2022-08-05-204545.png?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0Screenshot-2022-08-05-204545.png?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0Screenshot-2022-08-05-204545.png?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0Screenshot-2022-08-05-204545.png?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0Screenshot-2022-08-05-204545.png?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":201599,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=201599","url_meta":{"origin":330090,"position":4},"title":"Active Hurricane Season Expected in the Atlantic Ocean\u00a0","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/05\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Image credit: sanibelrealestateguide.com Unusually, this is the third year in a row under La Ni\u00f1a.\u2013 \u2013 \u2013La Ni\u00f1a conditions and warm ocean temperatures have set the stage for another busy tropical storm year,\u00a0says Eos. If forecasts are correct, this season will mark the seventh consecutive above-normal hurricane season for the\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0hurricane_season.jpg?fit=1024%2C735&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0hurricane_season.jpg?fit=1024%2C735&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0hurricane_season.jpg?fit=1024%2C735&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0hurricane_season.jpg?fit=1024%2C735&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":234861,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=234861","url_meta":{"origin":330090,"position":5},"title":"How Predictive Was NOAA\u2019 s Gloomy 2022 Hurricane Forecast? Not Very","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"18\/12\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA does not forecast the number of hurricanes that will hit a U.S. coast.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-568.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-568.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-568.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-568.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-568.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/330090","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=330090"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/330090\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":330099,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/330090\/revisions\/330099"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/330098"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=330090"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=330090"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=330090"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}