{"id":329686,"date":"2024-05-22T16:18:44","date_gmt":"2024-05-22T14:18:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=329686"},"modified":"2024-05-22T16:18:46","modified_gmt":"2024-05-22T14:18:46","slug":"the-guardian-is-confused-1-5c-of-warming-is-not-catastrophic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=329686","title":{"rendered":"The Guardian is Confused, 1.5\u00b0C of Warming is Not Catastrophic"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Linnea Lueken<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A recent article at The Guardian<\/em>, \u201cBrutal heatwaves and submerged cities: what a 3C world would look like<\/a>,\u201d claims that 1.5\u00b0C of warming, while not the end of the world, still will have many catastrophic effects on the planet, including the death of tropical corals, intense storms, and ice sheet collapse. This is false. There is no evidence that 1.5\u00b0C will have any of these effects, this is mere fearmongering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The article is somewhat confused in its presentation, claiming at once that passing the 1.5\u00b0C limit will lead to \u201ccatastrophic heatwaves, floods, and storms,\u201d while also saying it is not a \u201ccliff-edge leading to a significant change in climate damage.\u201d Catastrophe certainly sounds like \u201csignificant change,\u201d and later comments further confuse the point. It\u2019s important to note that, according to the E.U.\u2019s climate and weather agency Copernicus, the average annual temperature has already<\/a> exceeded 1.48\u00b0C the pre-industrial benchmark. Also, data from the longest continuously running temperature network indicates that Europe has already exceeded a 2.0\u2103<\/a> temperature rise with no appreciable negative climate impacts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an interactive graphic in the center of the article, the 1.5\u00b0C warming \u201cbenchmark\u201d is claimed to be the point at which \u201cheatwaves and storms intensify, tropical corals die off and tipping points for ice sheet collapse and permafrost thawing may be triggered.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are no citations or sources given for these claims. Luckily, Climate Realism<\/em> has dug into the available data in previous posts on all of the mentioned subjects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 1.5\u00b0C warming claim, scientists have admitted that the value is arbitrary and political<\/a>, and was not settled upon based on scientific or data-driven reasoning. The fact of the matter is, as discussed in \u201cReason is Right, There is No \u2018Climate Cliff\u2019<\/a>,\u201d that threshold was developed in the 90s by an 11-member German political \u201cadvisory board,\u201d only one of whom was a meteorologist. The panel\u2019s stated goal was to find a way to preserve the state of the Earth in its current form at the time, which is of course impossible in a dynamic system that is influenced not only by human activity but also by things well outside our control and ability, like space weather and tectonics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is no evidence showing that storms are getting worse, from tropical\u00a0cyclones<\/a>\u00a0to\u00a0drought<\/a>, no climate signal is visible despite the warming of the past hundred-plus years. In regards to heatwaves, many recent media-promoted record-breaking heat spell claims have been shown to most likely to be a artifact of the Urban Heat Island effect due to the proximity to\u00a0urbanization<\/a>, which skews results much hotter than they otherwise would have been. In the United States at least, where a good reliable record exists, average temperature anomalies have not been on an upward trajectory. In fact, the worst recorded heatwaves occurred in the 1930s. (See figure below)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As Climate at a Glance: U.S. Heatwaves<\/a> explains, \u201cthe lion\u2019s share of the Earth\u2019s modest warming occurs during winter, at night, and closer to the poles.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coral reef death claim is particularly strange, especially since far from dying off, corals in locations that previously suffered bleaching like the Great Barrier Reef are at their highest extent<\/a> ever right now despite (or perhaps because of) recent warming. Corals arose, evolved, survived, and thrived when global average temperatures were much higher than they are today. There is no reason to think this trend would suddenly reverse with another 0.02 degrees warming. The empirical data rebuts this claim so thoroughly, it\u2019s a wonder The Guardian<\/em> would try to slip it by.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ice sheets likewise do not appear to be on the verge of collapse. Several posts at Climate Realism<\/em> (here<\/a>, here<\/a>, here<\/a>, for samples) demonstrate that, while a short-term decline polar ice loss in the arctic occurred at the beginning of the 21st<\/sup> century, sea ice extent has largely stabilized since then. The previous decline  is hardly alarming, and definitely did not provide evidence for or presage an imminent total collapse. Two-time Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report Expert Reviewer Dave Burton pointed out in \u201cMedia Regurgitates Nonsense About Greenland Ice Cap and Sea Level Rise<\/a>,\u201d that hysteria over Greenland melt ignores the facts on the ground, that is, it\u2019s way too cold to have a total ice loss in the region without a much more dramatic warming trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThanks to \u201cArctic Amplification,\u201d Greenland should get more warming than most other places, but still no more than a few degrees,\u201d Burton wrote. \u201cThat much warming would be nice for the hardy people who live there, but it could not melt the southern part of the Greenland Ice Sheet, because water has to get above 0\u00b0C to melt, and the southern part of the Greenland Ice Sheet averages much colder than that.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, the permafrost \u201ctipping point\u201d claim is also meritless. Predictions about the loss of northern permafrost have failed<\/a> to materialize since at least 2005.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a shameful display of science-free propaganda,\u00a0The Guardian<\/em>\u00a0revealed it does not care at all about providing their readers with facts. It is quite simple to look up weather records and the current state of coral reefs. Instead,\u00a0The Guardian<\/em>\u00a0chose to outsource their thinking to alarmist fearmongers, eschewing data for the drama of doomsday predictions. This is yet another instance of mainstream media outlets failing in their duty to responsibly and accurately inform the public concerning the true, unalarming, state of the planet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A recent article at The Guardian, \u201cBrutal heatwaves and submerged cities: what a 3C world would look like,\u201d claims that 1.5\u00b0C of warming, while not the end of the world, still will have many catastrophic effects on the planet, including the death of tropical corals, intense storms, and ice sheet collapse. This is false. There is no evidence that 1.5\u00b0C will have any of these effects, this is mere fearmongering.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":329688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691826522,691818244,691818056,691818514,691818262],"class_list":{"0":"post-329686","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-1-5c-of-warming","9":"tag-climate-alarmist","10":"tag-climate-change","11":"tag-extreme-weather","12":"tag-the-guardian","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0fearmongering.jpg?fit=1082%2C778&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1nLw","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":411179,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=411179","url_meta":{"origin":329686,"position":0},"title":"The Guardian and Guterres Are Wrong: Science Shows No Climate \u2018Tipping Points\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent article in\u00a0The Guardian, \u201cChange course now: humanity has missed 1.5C climate target, says UN head,\u201d claims that the planet is in grave danger of passing climate \u201ctipping points,\u201d as it is now inevitable that 1.5\u00b0C warming will be breached. Although 1.5\u2103 of warming may be locked in if\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"1.5\u00b0C warming\"","block_context":{"text":"1.5\u00b0C warming","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=1-5c-warming"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/00Screenshot-2025-11-01-150444.png?fit=1200%2C763&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/00Screenshot-2025-11-01-150444.png?fit=1200%2C763&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/00Screenshot-2025-11-01-150444.png?fit=1200%2C763&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/00Screenshot-2025-11-01-150444.png?fit=1200%2C763&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/00Screenshot-2025-11-01-150444.png?fit=1200%2C763&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":328452,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=328452","url_meta":{"origin":329686,"position":1},"title":"A Note to The Guardian \u2013 Opinion Is NOT Science","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/12\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent article in the newspaper The Guardian reports that some of the \u201dworld\u2019s top climate scientists\u201d believe that disaster is soon to occur due to what they claim will be an additional degree of warming on the planet. This is a false narrative. The earth has experienced similar temperatures\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"1.5\u2103 threshold\"","block_context":{"text":"1.5\u2103 threshold","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=1-5%e2%84%83-threshold"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/OIG-2023-07-29T140658.612.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/OIG-2023-07-29T140658.612.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/OIG-2023-07-29T140658.612.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/OIG-2023-07-29T140658.612.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":414236,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=414236","url_meta":{"origin":329686,"position":2},"title":"From 1.5\u00b0C to 2.5\u00b0C, The Guardian Moves the Global Temperature Goalpost Again","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/22\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent article from The Guardian, \u201cCop30: calls for new urgency to talks as studies show global warming may reach 2.5C \u2013 latest updates,\u201d by Nina Lakhani and Ajit Niranjan, presents a rolling narrative suggesting that the world is heading toward 2.5\u00b0C of warming and that extreme weather linked to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"30 COP conferences\"","block_context":{"text":"30 COP conferences","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=30-cop-conferences"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOxiAsy8c-BMfVBYtz050vq4IhcDbzVAXjShLlFKHPlPwUKxW9iRoDHFJaFDOxGMEiCzOT2kyLJmhBSxdY3cnpjMdMqBpdvXUs8InB98sWyBeh3q07M2BWHJwlib5uH-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOxiAsy8c-BMfVBYtz050vq4IhcDbzVAXjShLlFKHPlPwUKxW9iRoDHFJaFDOxGMEiCzOT2kyLJmhBSxdY3cnpjMdMqBpdvXUs8InB98sWyBeh3q07M2BWHJwlib5uH-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOxiAsy8c-BMfVBYtz050vq4IhcDbzVAXjShLlFKHPlPwUKxW9iRoDHFJaFDOxGMEiCzOT2kyLJmhBSxdY3cnpjMdMqBpdvXUs8InB98sWyBeh3q07M2BWHJwlib5uH-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOxiAsy8c-BMfVBYtz050vq4IhcDbzVAXjShLlFKHPlPwUKxW9iRoDHFJaFDOxGMEiCzOT2kyLJmhBSxdY3cnpjMdMqBpdvXUs8InB98sWyBeh3q07M2BWHJwlib5uH-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOxiAsy8c-BMfVBYtz050vq4IhcDbzVAXjShLlFKHPlPwUKxW9iRoDHFJaFDOxGMEiCzOT2kyLJmhBSxdY3cnpjMdMqBpdvXUs8InB98sWyBeh3q07M2BWHJwlib5uH-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":292040,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=292040","url_meta":{"origin":329686,"position":3},"title":"Reason is Right, There is No \u2018Climate Cliff\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/20\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The threshold value was first developed by a panel of advisors who had no data to show that 1.5\u00b0 warming would be catastrophic, and the language used by the media has only become more extreme since then.","rel":"","context":"In \"1.5\u00b0C warming\"","block_context":{"text":"1.5\u00b0C warming","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=1-5c-warming"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0106607.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0106607.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0106607.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0106607.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0106607.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":290836,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=290836","url_meta":{"origin":329686,"position":4},"title":"No, Media, \u2018Catastrophic Climate Tipping Points\u2019 are Nothing to Worry About","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"For example, The Guardian blares the headline: Earth on verge of five catastrophic climate tipping points, scientists warn, while Politico writes Catastrophic climate \u2018tipping points\u2019 may be imminent.","rel":"","context":"In \"1.5\u00b0C mark\"","block_context":{"text":"1.5\u00b0C mark","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=1-5c-mark"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Global-Warming-Threatens-Human-Civilization-1536x1024-1.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Global-Warming-Threatens-Human-Civilization-1536x1024-1.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Global-Warming-Threatens-Human-Civilization-1536x1024-1.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Global-Warming-Threatens-Human-Civilization-1536x1024-1.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Global-Warming-Threatens-Human-Civilization-1536x1024-1.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":249423,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=249423","url_meta":{"origin":329686,"position":5},"title":"Media Regurgitates IPCC\u2019s \u2018Final Warning\u2019 on Climate Change \u2013 Without Realizing We\u2019ve Already Passed 1.5\u00b0C","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/24\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the\u00a0final part of its sixth assessment report\u00a0(AR6) on Monday, March 20. Predictably, the media rushed to repeat the claims made in the report with their own scary, woefully overwrought, headlines.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1036.png?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1036.png?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1036.png?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1036.png?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/329686","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=329686"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/329686\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":329692,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/329686\/revisions\/329692"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/329688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=329686"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=329686"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=329686"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}