{"id":329523,"date":"2024-05-21T17:35:02","date_gmt":"2024-05-21T15:35:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=329523"},"modified":"2024-05-21T17:35:05","modified_gmt":"2024-05-21T15:35:05","slug":"wrong-mainstream-media-tree-rings-arent-reliable-indicators-of-past-temperatures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=329523","title":{"rendered":"Wrong, Mainstream Media, Tree Rings Aren\u2019t Reliable Indicators of Past Temperatures"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Dozens of media outlets such as ABC News<\/a>, The BBC<\/a>, The <\/em>New York Times<\/em><\/a>,<\/em> and many more, hyped a study that claims summer temperatures in 2023 were unprecedented over the past 2000 years<\/a>. This claim, in fact, can\u2019t be verified by tree ring data, which isn\u2019t that precise. Researchers are falsely assuming tree rings are reliable temperature indicators when in fact tree rings can indicate a multitude of different conditions, not just temperature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Further, the study<\/a>, Esper, J. et al., Nature<\/em>, 2024, is using an old trick, pioneered by Michael Mann, Ph.D. in his controversial hockey stick graph<\/a>, where estimated temperatures from select tree rings and other proxies<\/a> far into the past are grafted onto more reliable temperatures, measured in the present, and presented as one unified dataset, when in fact they are radically different.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example,\u00a0the BBC\u2019s article about the study\u00a0<\/a>presented this graph, which is highly reminiscent of Mann\u2019s original \u201chockey stick\u201d graph.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

That graph is highly misleading, if not a flat-out fabrication. It suffers from the same sort of issues in Mann\u2019s original \u201chockey stick\u201d graph<\/a>, such as the fact that tree ring data from other trees show no such trend. We know from other studies that the Roman Warm Period<\/a> (from 1\u2013250 AD) and the Medieval Warm Period<\/a> (950 to c. 1250 AD) existed, but they have been erased from this graph presented to the public as accurately representing past temperatures, when it is actually dishonest fiction based on a biased analysis of selected proxy data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fact that these well-known, documented, and scientifically certified climate events have been removed from the graph touted by the media indicate that this is more likely propaganda in pursuit of a political goal, rather than a scientific search for understanding based on honest use of the scientific method<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another issue with the study is the well-known fact that annual tree ring growth is not tied solely to temperatures, much less the made up metric of \u201cglobal average temperature,\u201d as Liebig\u2019s law of the minimum<\/a> explains. Often simply called Liebig\u2019s law, or the law of the minimum, is a principle developed in agricultural science by Carl Sprengel (1840) and later popularized by Justus von Liebig. It states that growth is dictated not by total resources available, but by the scarcest resource (limiting factor).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, plant growth factors from year to year such as sunlight, available water as rainfall, available nutrients in the soil, and temperatures, among other factors, combine to determine growth of a tree, not just temperature alone. It is impossible to distinguish and disentangle the various factors that contribute to tree growth in any given year, much less thousands of years in the past. As a result, one can\u2019t honestly claim that tree growth rings necessarily reflect temperatures alone at a particular time or location, much less that tree rings from one or a few sampled areas show anything about global temperatures or conditions. Making such claims is simply dishonest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also, that present temperatures may or may not be warmer than any in the last 2000 years says nothing about whether that is necessarily a bad thing. Historical evidence, in fact, strongly indicates that warmer periods are better for life and human civilization than cooler periods. The authors of this study, assume, without evidence, that just the opposite is the case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The lead author, Jan Esper, confirms in the interview he gave the BBC that he is, in fact, using this study as a vehicle to elicit policy action:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors say the key conclusion from their work is the need for rapid reductions in emissions of planet-warming gases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe longer we wait, the more expensive it will be and the more difficult it will be to mitigate or even stop that process and reverse it,\u201d said lead author, Prof Jan Esper from Johannes Gutenberg University, in Germany.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat is just so obvious,\u201d he said. \u201cWe should do as much as possible, as soon as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This admission strongly suggests that the study is more about climate advocacy than science, and the media fell for it. This sort of journalistic malfeasance has become increasingly more common. The study\u2019s authors are acting as advocates not scientists, a path the editors and fact checkers that media outlets employ followed as well in publicizing the report\u2019s unverifiable claims and its authors\u2019 calls for action. If they were actually doing their jobs as journalists to report the truth, the findings of this study never would have been promoted so widely, or if it had been, the writers would have balanced the story with the views of analysts critical of the study, citing scientific evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

That graph is highly misleading, if not a flat-out fabrication. It suffers from the same sort of issues in Mann\u2019s original \u201chockey stick\u201d graph, such as the fact that tree ring data from other trees show no such trend. We know from other studies that the Roman Warm Period (from 1\u2013250 AD) and the Medieval Warm Period (950 to c. 1250 AD) existed, but they have been erased from this graph presented to the public as accurately representing past temperatures, when it is actually dishonest fiction based on a biased analysis of selected proxy data.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":329521,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691828702,691819283,691825015,691823700],"class_list":{"0":"post-329523","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-manns-original-hockey-stick-graph-2","9":"tag-medieval-warm-period","10":"tag-roman-warm-period","11":"tag-tree-rings","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Tree-Rings.jpeg?fit=2048%2C1152&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1nIT","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":294083,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=294083","url_meta":{"origin":329523,"position":0},"title":"How Scary Temperature Trends are Manufactured by Comparing \u201cApples to Oranges\u201d!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Sadly, alarmist scientists are comparing apples to oranges to manufacture unprecedented warming. 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