{"id":329243,"date":"2024-05-16T09:04:08","date_gmt":"2024-05-16T07:04:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=329243"},"modified":"2024-05-16T09:04:10","modified_gmt":"2024-05-16T07:04:10","slug":"ryan-maue-on-global-temperature-shocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=329243","title":{"rendered":"Ryan Maue on \u201cGlobal Temperature Shocks\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" data-attachment-id=\"329254\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=329254\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/06ZW3VY5dZJbYSD7FeAsKe6.jpg?fit=1920%2C1080&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1920,1080\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"06ZW3VY5dZJbYSD7FeAsKe6\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/06ZW3VY5dZJbYSD7FeAsKe6.jpg?fit=723%2C407&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/06ZW3VY5dZJbYSD7FeAsKe6.jpg?resize=723%2C407&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-329254\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/06ZW3VY5dZJbYSD7FeAsKe6.jpg?resize=1024%2C576&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/06ZW3VY5dZJbYSD7FeAsKe6.jpg?resize=300%2C169&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/06ZW3VY5dZJbYSD7FeAsKe6.jpg?resize=768%2C432&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/06ZW3VY5dZJbYSD7FeAsKe6.jpg?resize=1536%2C864&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/06ZW3VY5dZJbYSD7FeAsKe6.jpg?resize=1200%2C675&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/06ZW3VY5dZJbYSD7FeAsKe6.jpg?w=1920&amp;ssl=1 1920w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/06ZW3VY5dZJbYSD7FeAsKe6.jpg?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2024\/05\/14\/ryan-maue-on-global-temperature-shocks\/\">Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ryan Maue comments on new pager:\u00a0<strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w32450?utm_campaign=ntwh&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=ntwg7\">The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature<\/a><\/em><\/strong>. He pulls no punches.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"513\" height=\"720\" data-attachment-id=\"329244\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=329244\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-354.png?fit=513%2C720&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"513,720\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-354\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-354.png?fit=513%2C720&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-354.png?resize=513%2C720&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-329244\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-354.png?w=513&amp;ssl=1 513w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-354.png?resize=214%2C300&amp;ssl=1 214w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 513px) 100vw, 513px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;Global temperature shocks&quot; \ud83d\ude2c <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/faBe7FADzh\">https:\/\/t.co\/faBe7FADzh<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RyanMaue\/status\/1790092172475163054?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 13, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"710\" height=\"720\" data-attachment-id=\"329246\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=329246\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-355.png?fit=710%2C720&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"710,720\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-355\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-355.png?fit=710%2C720&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-355.png?resize=710%2C720&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-329246\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-355.png?w=710&amp;ssl=1 710w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-355.png?resize=296%2C300&amp;ssl=1 296w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-355.png?resize=60%2C60&amp;ssl=1 60w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 710px) 100vw, 710px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The methodology here is wild.  Instead of using local climate data to diagnose the impacts of extreme weather events that drive damages, the authors use the global temperature time series.<br><br>The logic is circular and baseless.  <br><br>The mean global temperature does not cause extreme\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/B5GFxfSn9G\">pic.twitter.com\/B5GFxfSn9G<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RyanMaue\/status\/1790096344083808282?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 13, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The methodology here is wild. Instead of using local climate data to diagnose the impacts of extreme weather events that drive damages, the authors use the global temperature time series. The logic is circular and baseless. The mean global temperature does not cause extreme weather, nor does the variability in global temperature. The climate itself does not cause nor fuel extreme weather.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"573\" height=\"720\" data-attachment-id=\"329248\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=329248\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-356.png?fit=573%2C720&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"573,720\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-356\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-356.png?fit=573%2C720&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-356.png?resize=573%2C720&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-329248\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-356.png?w=573&amp;ssl=1 573w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-356.png?resize=239%2C300&amp;ssl=1 239w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 573px) 100vw, 573px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">So, the authors find that local temperatures (as in national scale) are not correlated to damages with huge variance, yet global temperatures are b\/c of smaller annual variability. <br> <br>At this point of the analysis, the authors should have quit, yet they plowed ahead undaunted. \ud83d\ude2c <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3YccBZB8cx\">pic.twitter.com\/3YccBZB8cx<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RyanMaue\/status\/1790101673836175437?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 13, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The authors create a new metric called \u201cglobal temperature shocks,\u201d which to most climate folks probably looks like a detrended variance of about 0.2\u00b0C. Why would global temperature variability (warm or cold) related mainly to tropical temperatures (El Ni\u00f1o &amp; La Ni\u00f1a) be a more appropriate metric to represent climate damages from extreme events rather than the extreme events themselves? We have extensive disaster databases and GDP at the national scale. Why not use those? Because that (more appropriate) analysis does not show much of a climate change damage signal. It\u2019s tiny.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"369\" height=\"720\" data-attachment-id=\"329250\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=329250\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-357.png?fit=369%2C720&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"369,720\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-357\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-357.png?fit=369%2C720&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-357.png?resize=369%2C720&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-329250\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-357.png?w=369&amp;ssl=1 369w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-357.png?resize=154%2C300&amp;ssl=1 154w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 369px) 100vw, 369px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">So, the authors find that local temperatures (as in national scale) are not correlated to damages with huge variance, yet global temperatures are b\/c of smaller annual variability. <br> <br>At this point of the analysis, the authors should have quit, yet they plowed ahead undaunted. \ud83d\ude2c <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3YccBZB8cx\">pic.twitter.com\/3YccBZB8cx<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RyanMaue\/status\/1790101673836175437?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 13, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So, the authors find that local temperatures (as in national scale) are not correlated to damages with huge variance, yet global temperatures are b\/c of smaller annual variability. At this point of the analysis, the authors should have quit, yet they plowed ahead undaunted.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RyanMaue\/status\/1790101673836175437\/photo\/1\"><\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here is the original X (formally Twitter) thread<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The methodology here is wild.  Instead of using local climate data to diagnose the impacts of extreme weather events that drive damages, the authors use the global temperature time series.<br><br>The logic is circular and baseless.  <br><br>The mean global temperature does not cause extreme\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/B5GFxfSn9G\">pic.twitter.com\/B5GFxfSn9G<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RyanMaue\/status\/1790096344083808282?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 13, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">So, the authors find that local temperatures (as in national scale) are not correlated to damages with huge variance, yet global temperatures are b\/c of smaller annual variability. <br> <br>At this point of the analysis, the authors should have quit, yet they plowed ahead undaunted. \ud83d\ude2c <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3YccBZB8cx\">pic.twitter.com\/3YccBZB8cx<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RyanMaue\/status\/1790101673836175437?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 13, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ryan Maue comments on new pager:\u00a0The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature. He pulls no punches.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":329254,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691819743,691818288,691828656],"class_list":["post-329243","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-propaganda","tag-global-temperature","tag-ocal-temperatures","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/06ZW3VY5dZJbYSD7FeAsKe6.jpg?fit=1920%2C1080&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1nEn","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":298649,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=298649","url_meta":{"origin":329243,"position":0},"title":"Hurricane Frequency and Sunspots","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/28\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Sunlight penetrates deeply (up to 1,000 meters) into the ocean before it is absorbed. Greenhouse gas radiation cannot penetrate the ocean surface. The residence time of sunlight energy is longer as a result. 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