{"id":328944,"date":"2024-05-14T15:28:45","date_gmt":"2024-05-14T13:28:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=328944"},"modified":"2024-05-14T15:28:48","modified_gmt":"2024-05-14T13:28:48","slug":"wrong-the-conversation-climate-change-is-not-making-flooding-worse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=328944","title":{"rendered":"Wrong, The Conversation, Climate Change Is Not Making Flooding Worse"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Linnea Lueken<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A recent post at The Conversation claims that flooding is getting worse in the United States due to climate change, calling for a change in water handling philosophy in order to mitigate the effects. The author overstates scientific confidence in the connection between flooding and the modest warming of the past century. Data does not show flooding is becoming more frequent or severe. Having said that updating water handling in major urban areas would help with mitigating flooding, although it is unclear whether the method proposed in the Conversation\u2019s article is feasible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The article, \u201cAs climate change amplifies urban flooding, here\u2019s how communities can become \u2018sponge cities\u2019<\/a>,\u201d is written by an engineering professor and director of a water resource laboratory at Drexel University, Franco Montalto. He begins the post by asserting that in the United States, \u201cintense single-day precipitation events are growing more frequent<\/a>, fueled by warming air that can hold increasing levels of moisture.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The citation Montalto uses goes to the U.S. government\u2019s Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) report, which has been heavily critiqued by scientists for directly ignoring or contradicting available scientific literature on the subjects it covers. Climate Realism<\/em> previously pointed out deceptive framing from the NCA5 on its approach to temperature extremes here<\/a>, and the alleged increase in so-called \u201cbillion dollar disasters\u201d here<\/a>. The NCA has become a political tool that is distinctly partisan<\/a>, directly controlled by whatever presidential administration is currently in charge. The publications reflect that reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the NCA5 was first released, climate scientist and past contributor to the NCA reports Roger Pielke Jr. pointed out<\/a> that it was strange for an alleged scientific assessment to contain so many citations that pointed to White House press releases. Regarding the actual science, the NCA contradicts the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change findings on flooding<\/a>, which admit only low confidence in even a sign of change in any<\/em> direction, positive or negative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in fact, has warned<\/a> against trying to associate changes in precipitation to human activities and flooding, because flooding is complex and very situationally dependent:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAttributing changes in heavy precipitation to anthropogenic activities (Section 11.4.4) cannot be readily translated to attributing changes in floods to human activities, because precipitation is only one of the multiple factors, albeit an important one, that affect floods.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s more, despite a modest increase in overall precipitation, annual U.S. flood damage as a proportion of GDP has\u00a0declined<\/a>\u00a0over time, not increased. (See figure below)<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

As with many recent posts connecting climate change and particular threats to infrastructure, the majority of the Conversation\u2019s piece doesn\u2019t dwell on climate change at all, but rather on Montalto\u2019s research into \u201cgreen infrastructure\u201d and water handling systems for urban areas. In this case, his focus is on \u201csponge cities\u201d \u2013 city planning that involves using green spaces and planted rooftops to soak up runoff and filter water before it reaches rivers and streams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This all sounds fine and may well be a valuable response to the fact that development, such as impervious surfaces, gutters flowing into streams, wetland and open space conversion, and channelization of streams in urban areas and suburban areas are contributing to increased runoff and associated flooding. The issue with the proposal for \u201csponge cities\u201d is not so much the theory of it, but as admitted by the author, the practicality of \u201ctransforming\u201d cities in this way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Montalto himself writes, \u201ccritics say this level of greening is not technically, logistically or socially feasible.\u201d He dismisses these concerns by glibly commenting that, if sponge cities are to exist, \u201ccities will eventually have to figure out how to get there,\u201d and goes no further into debating the criticism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As cities grow, the issue of flooding naturally grows with it as sewers become overburdened and even more land is used for construction, unless infrastructure is updated and expanded. Improving water handling infrastructure in cities makes sense regardless of climate change. Evidence does not provide justification for Montalto to mention climate change as a causal factor in exacerbating flooding, unless the he just wanted to piggy-back his planning and development ideas onto climate alarm to get a wider hearing for his proposed solutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A recent post at The Conversation claims that flooding is getting worse in the United States due to climate change, calling for a change in water handling philosophy in order to mitigate the effects. The author overstates scientific confidence in the connection between flooding and the modest warming of the past century. Data does not show flooding is becoming more frequent or severe.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":328948,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691818544,691828612,691821854],"class_list":{"0":"post-328944","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-flooding","10":"tag-franco-montalto","11":"tag-the-conversation","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/01_TCR_BRI_011019PillFlood_1.webp?fit=1636%2C1227&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1nzy","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":231276,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=231276","url_meta":{"origin":328944,"position":0},"title":"An Inconvenient Tree: Is Climate Change Driving Worse Floods?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/11\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Does evidence of past extreme floods invalidate claims that climate change is making floods\u00a0worse?","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/0Aussie-Flood-Markers.webp?fit=800%2C400&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/0Aussie-Flood-Markers.webp?fit=800%2C400&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/0Aussie-Flood-Markers.webp?fit=800%2C400&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/0Aussie-Flood-Markers.webp?fit=800%2C400&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":293081,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=293081","url_meta":{"origin":328944,"position":1},"title":"Wrong, Kansas City Star, Climate Change Isn\u2019t Worsening Weather in Kansas or Missouri","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"29\/12\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The\u00a0Kansas City Star\u00a0ran an opinion piece claiming climate change is already making weather more extreme in Kansas and Missouri. This is false. There is no data supporting the claim that either flooding or drought, two specific extreme weather events cited in the story, are worse now than they have been\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Kansas-City.jpeg?fit=1200%2C530&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Kansas-City.jpeg?fit=1200%2C530&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Kansas-City.jpeg?fit=1200%2C530&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Kansas-City.jpeg?fit=1200%2C530&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0Kansas-City.jpeg?fit=1200%2C530&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":287416,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=287416","url_meta":{"origin":328944,"position":2},"title":"US Flood Trends","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"An incredible trend that you never hear about. 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Then I heard a strange noise\u2019 \u2013 This is climate breakdown,\u201d by Ajit Niranjan, presents the tragic story of a family caught in the Valencia floods of October 2024, framing the disaster as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Ajit Niranjan\"","block_context":{"text":"Ajit Niranjan","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ajit-niranjan"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQPU-YK0Q4NRnbTvedqbUezG2B3PaYnGZbAeXUc3YrS9GAcMEosNTQU0eFGekBm50WH_t2zuG5HOg98WVzglQ3dwssG2SG0ci0Z6G-tL3SpaW2EhY5yKtSV_Ul3G1lY-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQPU-YK0Q4NRnbTvedqbUezG2B3PaYnGZbAeXUc3YrS9GAcMEosNTQU0eFGekBm50WH_t2zuG5HOg98WVzglQ3dwssG2SG0ci0Z6G-tL3SpaW2EhY5yKtSV_Ul3G1lY-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQPU-YK0Q4NRnbTvedqbUezG2B3PaYnGZbAeXUc3YrS9GAcMEosNTQU0eFGekBm50WH_t2zuG5HOg98WVzglQ3dwssG2SG0ci0Z6G-tL3SpaW2EhY5yKtSV_Ul3G1lY-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQPU-YK0Q4NRnbTvedqbUezG2B3PaYnGZbAeXUc3YrS9GAcMEosNTQU0eFGekBm50WH_t2zuG5HOg98WVzglQ3dwssG2SG0ci0Z6G-tL3SpaW2EhY5yKtSV_Ul3G1lY-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQPU-YK0Q4NRnbTvedqbUezG2B3PaYnGZbAeXUc3YrS9GAcMEosNTQU0eFGekBm50WH_t2zuG5HOg98WVzglQ3dwssG2SG0ci0Z6G-tL3SpaW2EhY5yKtSV_Ul3G1lY-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":231465,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=231465","url_meta":{"origin":328944,"position":4},"title":"Climate change apparently makes floods less severe","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"28\/11\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Murray River was far higher in the 1970 floods and worse still in 1956 when CO2 was just 314ppm. 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Data don\u2019t indicate that monsoon floods are worse now than in the past, and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"BBC\"","block_context":{"text":"BBC","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bbc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQNouXktX283yc5Xjsu_KvMu-NnMpPao0GCYsCPdrpJ508ihMRGUehwe4Zw6BpAi8unEvlaNkXex7ENq5Vr2597fBPjuJuSpqHcxf-cInQ7QS1oqMGj96ctD4nsHZEU-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C616&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQNouXktX283yc5Xjsu_KvMu-NnMpPao0GCYsCPdrpJ508ihMRGUehwe4Zw6BpAi8unEvlaNkXex7ENq5Vr2597fBPjuJuSpqHcxf-cInQ7QS1oqMGj96ctD4nsHZEU-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C616&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQNouXktX283yc5Xjsu_KvMu-NnMpPao0GCYsCPdrpJ508ihMRGUehwe4Zw6BpAi8unEvlaNkXex7ENq5Vr2597fBPjuJuSpqHcxf-cInQ7QS1oqMGj96ctD4nsHZEU-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C616&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQNouXktX283yc5Xjsu_KvMu-NnMpPao0GCYsCPdrpJ508ihMRGUehwe4Zw6BpAi8unEvlaNkXex7ENq5Vr2597fBPjuJuSpqHcxf-cInQ7QS1oqMGj96ctD4nsHZEU-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C616&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQNouXktX283yc5Xjsu_KvMu-NnMpPao0GCYsCPdrpJ508ihMRGUehwe4Zw6BpAi8unEvlaNkXex7ENq5Vr2597fBPjuJuSpqHcxf-cInQ7QS1oqMGj96ctD4nsHZEU-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C616&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/328944","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=328944"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/328944\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":328951,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/328944\/revisions\/328951"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/328948"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=328944"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=328944"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=328944"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}