{"id":328051,"date":"2024-05-12T11:43:56","date_gmt":"2024-05-12T09:43:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=328051"},"modified":"2024-05-12T11:43:58","modified_gmt":"2024-05-12T09:43:58","slug":"the-anti-social-cost-of-carbon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=328051","title":{"rendered":"The (Anti) Social Cost of Carbon"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Jonathan Lesser<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forty-two was the mystical number that explained \u201clife, the universe, and everything\u201d in Douglas Adams\u2019 comic novel, The Hitchhiker\u2019s Guide to the Galaxy<\/em>.  Today, another mystical number, the so-called social cost of carbon (SSC), is providing the excuse for the Environmental Protection Agency and green-energy-enamored state regulators to enact crippling energy policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The SCC is the thumb on the scale that can justify virtually any policy aimed at eliminating fossil fuels. When the EPA first proposed its rule to reduce mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants, the agency\u2019s cost-benefit analysis<\/a> determined the benefits would be minuscule. Any putative benefits, it turns out, would come instead from reductions in carbon emissions and, here\u2019s the key, based on a calculated value for the SCC.  The same was true for the EPA\u2019s earlier attempt at carbon regulation via a \u201cClean Power Plan<\/a>,\u201d which was shut down<\/a> by the Supreme Court. But here we are again with the agency\u2019s newest rules trying<\/a> to force coal plants to further reduce mercury emissions and to force both coal and natural gas-fired power plants to capture 90% of their carbon emissions. The technology to accomplish this doesn\u2019t exist<\/a> and EPA Administrator Michael Regan admitted<\/a> the rule will force the closure of fossil-fuel power plants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The SCC values used by the EPA are derived from calculations in integrated planning models (IPMs)<\/a>. Those models assume a simplistic linear relationship between carbon emissions and world temperature (never mind that the validity of that linear assumptions is a subject of deep debate in scientific circles). The models then assume that the resulting temperature increases cause all forms of environmental doom \u2013 rising sea levels, more disease, and declining agricultural production \u2013 for which yet more estimates are made to assign future cost consequences. Here\u2019s the key: the IPMs project these costs out for the next 300<\/em> years (not a typo). Then, those far future costs are \u201cdiscounted\u201d to estimate a value in today\u2019s dollars by using truly absurd assumptions about such things as inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A tongue-in-cheek forecaster\u2019s creed is \u201cGive them a number or give them a date. Don\u2019t give them both.\u201d Attempting to predict the future three centuries hence may be standard fare for science fiction writers, but basing energy policies on such predictions is insane.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Imagine someone in the year 1724 predicting life \u2013 and technology \u2013 today. Benjamin Franklin was 18 years old and working in his father\u2019s print shop. George Washington would not be born for another eight years. The French scientist Antoine Lavoisier, who first identified carbon as an element in 1789, would not be born until 1743. The first patent on a flush toilet would not happen for another half-century. Thomas Edison would not invent the light bulb and the telephone for another 150 years. Could anyone in 1724 have imagined automobiles, mobile phones, and MRI machines? How about integrated circuits, nuclear power, and B-2 bombers?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To presume we can accurately predict, or even imagine, what the world will look like 300 years from now is just as preposterous. Yet, simplistic models and arbitrary assumptions are being used to drive energy policy decisions today. Using the SCC estimates, and assuming that new technologies will magically appear, the EPA can justify virtually any pollution control regulation, including those that effectively mandate electric vehicles. Similarly, even though offshore wind generation costs five times more than natural gas and coal, the SCC can \u201cprove\u201d the benefits of offshore wind exceed its costs. New York State, for example, assumes that, by 2040, thousands of megawatts of \u201cdispatchable emissions-free generators\u201d (the equivalent of a natural gas generator burning pure hydrogen) will provide the necessary backup for unreliable offshore wind, even though no such generators exist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Contrary to the economic fantasies peddled by green energy advocates, policies to eliminate fossil fuels based on the supposed benefits captured by the SCC will cripple the U.S. economy. Electricity prices, coupled with ill-considered plans to electrify virtually everything, will soar. Supplies will dwindle, requiring rationing, either explicitly or through rolling blackouts, such as those experienced every day in South Africa. Rather than creating some green energy nirvana, the lack of adequate and affordable electricity will cause societal decay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All of this based on a made-up number. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jonathan Lesser is a senior fellow with the National Center for Energy Analytics and president of Continental Economics.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article was originally published by RealClearEnergy and made available via RealClearWire.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Forty-two was the mystical number that explained \u201clife, the universe, and everything\u201d in Douglas Adams\u2019 comic novel, The Hitchhiker\u2019s Guide to the Galaxy. Today, another mystical number, the so-called social cost of carbon (SSC), is providing the excuse for the Environmental Protection Agency and green-energy-enamored state regulators to enact crippling energy policies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":328054,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818073,691828581,691828580],"class_list":["post-328051","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-epa","tag-integrated-planning-models-ipms","tag-social-cost-of-carbon-ssc","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0hitchhikersguide.webp?fit=1390%2C752&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1nl9","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":374650,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=374650","url_meta":{"origin":328051,"position":0},"title":"Green Policies, Not Trump Tariffs, Killing British Steel","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/10\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"British Steel, the U.K.\u2019s last bastion of primary steelmaking, announced plans to shutter its two blast furnaces at Scunthorpe, effectively ending 150 years of virgin steel production in Britain. 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