{"id":327673,"date":"2024-05-10T10:12:33","date_gmt":"2024-05-10T08:12:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=327673"},"modified":"2024-05-10T10:12:36","modified_gmt":"2024-05-10T08:12:36","slug":"what-the-media-wont-tell-you-about-the-energy-transition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=327673","title":{"rendered":"What The Media Won\u2019t Tell You About The Energy Transition"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reposted from Robert Bryce\u2019s Substack<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hype, and the reality, about the energy transition in 10 charts<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Cooling towers at India\u2019s Mahatma Gandhi Super Thermal Power Project, a 1,320 MW coal-fired power plant in Haryana. Photo:\u00a0Wikipedia<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Over the past few days, I\u2019ve searched the NewsBank archive for uses of \u201cenergy transition.\u201d One of the earliest uses of that now-ubiquitous phrase occurred in the Christian Science Monitor<\/em> in 1981. In a dispatch from Nairobi, a reporter named Richard Critchfield explained that some \u201c4,000 delegates from 154 countries\u201d were gathering in the Kenyan capital for a two-week United Nations conference on new and renewable sources of energy. \u201cThe purpose of the conference,\u201d Critchfield explained, was to \u201cpromote better understanding of the global energy transition from oil to such new sources as geothermal, solar, wind, ocean, and hydropower or energy from biomass, fuelwood, charcoal, peat, draught animals, oil shale, and tar sands.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The article doesn\u2019t mention climate change<\/a>. Instead, it focuses on Kenya\u2019s reliance on imported energy, the country\u2019s geothermal potential, and the \u201cclassic third-world poverty trap of soaring oil costs and stagnant export earnings.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, 43 years later, we are inundated with news reports about climate change and claims that we are in the midst of an energy transition that will eliminate our need for hydrocarbons. Myriad examples can prove that point, but consider the Earth Day press release from the White House<\/a>. The April 22 release included the word \u201cclimate\u201d 52 times and references the energy transition three times. For instance, it said President Joe Biden has launched a new \u201cClean Energy Supply Chain Collaborative to work with international partners to diversity supply chains that are critical to a clean and secure energy transition.\u201d It continued, saying the president is \u201cmobilizing other governments to follow the U.S. lead and commit to achieve net zero government emissions by 2040.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before going further, let me be clear about my politics. I\u2019m not a Democrat. I\u2019m not a Republican. I am Disgusted. I have no truck with either party. As a journalist focused on energy and power systems, my affiliation is with the math and the physics. My job is to spotlight the trends and the numbers and to separate the hype from the reality. Unfortunately, much of the media coverage about the energy transition is just that: hype. As I will show in these charts, the hype has soared during the Biden administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last month, the EPA announced rules to \u201creduce pollution from fossil fuel-fired power plants.\u201d In the agency\u2019s April 25 press release announcing the new regulations<\/a>, the word \u201ctransition\u201d appears three times. The EPA said  it was providing \u201cregulatory certainty as the power sector makes long-term investments in the transition to a clean energy economy.\u201d It also quotes the BlueGreen Alliance\u2019s Jason Walsh as saying the EPA mandate provides a \u201ctoolbox of critical investments targeted to the workers and communities experiencing the economic impacts of energy transition.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In these 10 charts, I abide by W. Edwards Deming\u2019s commandment: \u201cIn God we trust, all others must bring data<\/a>.\u201d The numbers I\u2019m presenting aren\u2019t my numbers, they are\u00a0the\u00a0<\/em>numbers. Here\u2019s what the media won\u2019t tell you about the energy transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chart 1<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve said it before, but I\u2019ll repeat it: the concept of the energy transition is essentially a Western conceit. The U.S. and Western European countries are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on programs like the Inflation Reduction Act and the Energiewende to fund buildouts of solar, wind, batteries, and tutti-fruity-colored hydrogen, but that doesn\u2019t mean the rest of the world will do the same. There is no evidence that China and India are going through an energy transition. Instead, the numbers show those two countries are building staggering amounts of new coal-fired capacity. That capacity is far greater than the amount of nuclear capacity they are building.\u00a0This chart, which I first published last December<\/a>, uses updated figures from the\u00a0International Energy Agency<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Global Energy Monitor<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Chart 2<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

On April 30, Reuters reported<\/a>, \u201cIndia\u2019s coal production and generation shattered records in March as miners and power producers made a Herculean effort to avoid a repetition of the fuel shortages and blackouts that hit the country two years ago. Domestic coal production soared to an unprecedented 117 million tonnes in March 2024, up from 108 million in March 2023 and 96 million in March 2022, according to data from the Ministry of Coal.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The following two charts show that whatever emissions reductions are achieved in the U.S. and other big economies are being swamped by what\u2019s happening in India and China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Chart 3<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

This chart uses the same numbers as those in the previous chart, but putting them in a horizontal format makes them easier to comprehend. It also underscores the challenge of decarbonizing the Indian and Chinese economies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Chart 4<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

I have published this graphic before. But I am using it again here because it spotlights the staggering growth of hydrocarbons compared to the growth of the two politically favored sources of power generation, wind and solar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Chart 5<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

As mentioned above, the EPA\u2019s new mandates could force the closure of all the remaining coal-fired power plants in the U.S. by the mid-2030s. The mandate, which faces a years-long legal battle before it could become law, claims the U.S. must act on climate change. However, the mandate will not affect China and India, which generate eight times more electricity from coal than the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Chart 6<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

More coal-fired capacity is being built in developing countries. And those new plants will result in more emissions. On March 1, the International Energy Agency reported<\/a> that energy-related CO2 emissions \u201cgrew by 1.1% in 2023, increasing 410 million tonnes to reach a new record high of 37.4 billion tonnes.  This compares with an increase of 490 Mt in 2022 (1.3%). Emissions from coal accounted for more than 65% of the increase in 2023.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That last line is critical. According to Global Energy Monitor, Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, India, and Vietnam are all building new coal plants<\/a>. That new capacity, totaling nearly 188 gigawatts, is roughly equal to all existing U.S. coal-fired power plants (200 GW).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, since 2019, according to Global Energy Monitor, China and India have added some 216 GW of coal capacity. One more number is relevant here: Those five countries have a combined population of 3.4 billion, or about 42% of all the people on the planet. Their electricity use is a fraction of the 12,000 kilowatt-hours per capita per year we use here in the U.S. For instance, in Bangladesh and Indonesia, electricity use is paltry: less than 500 and 1,200 kWh\/capita\/year, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Chart 7<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

I published this chart last month in \u201cNatty Nation<\/a>.\u201d I\u2019m using it again here because it illustrates the point at hand. Yes, China, India, and other countries are burning more coal. The U.S. is reducing its use of coal. And yet, despite massive federal subsidies and numerous mandates at the local and state levels, wind and solar energy aren\u2019t keeping pace with the growth in natural gas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Chart 8<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The surging use of the term \u201cenergy transition\u201d can easily be seen by searching the\u00a0New York Times\u00a0<\/em>archives. Between 2019 and 2023, the use of that phrase jumped 10-fold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Chart 9<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The same 10-fold increase can be seen in NewsBank\u2019s newspaper database, which has the\u00a0full text of over 10,000 newspapers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Chart 10<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps the most straightforward way to observe the surge in the marketing of the \u201cenergy transition\u201d is to look at the number of times it has been used during the presidential terms of Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Both, of course, are Democrats, and both, of course, have focused on climate. According the National Archives, Obama \u201cbelieves that no challenge poses a greater threat to our children, our planet, and future generations than climate change<\/a> \u2014 and that no other country on Earth is better equipped to lead the world towards a solution.\u201d However, as seen in the graphic below, the Obama era had far fewer mentions of the energy transition than what has occurred under Biden. Indeed, that phrase has appeared more than 75,000 times during Biden\u2019s presidency. Thus, the media has used the phrase \u201cenergy transition\u201d 36 times more during Biden\u2019s three-and-a-half years in the White House than during eight years of Obama\u2019s presidency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We can think this as the \u201cWoozle Effect,\u201d named after a Winnie The Pooh story by A.A. Milne. The Woozle Effect is also known as \u201cevidence by citation,\u201d<\/a> which occurs when a source \u201cis widely cited for a claim it does not adequately support, giving said claim undeserved credibility.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The punchline here is obvious: We are not in the midst of a major energy transition. Instead, what we are seeing is the media echo chamber at work. Media outlets are giving undeserved credibility <\/em>to the idea of the energy transition despite a metric ton of evidence that shows no such transition is happening, particularly in developing countries like Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Indeed, the surge in the use of the phrase by the Biden administration \u2014 and its many allies in big media outlets \u2014 shows that we\u2019re being bombarded by a public relations campaign that\u2019s designed to convince the public and policymakers that an energy transition is happening and that we should be spending staggering sums of money on it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A decade ago, energy analyst and polymath Vaclav Smil wrote<\/a>, \u201chope for a quick and sweeping transition to renewable energy is fueled mostly by wishful thinking and a misunderstanding of recent history.\u201d He explained that \u201cfor any new energy source to capture a large share of the market require[s] two to three generations: 50 to 75 years.\u201d He concluded, \u201cEnergy transitions on a national or global scale are inherently protracted affairs.\u201d That statement was true in 2014. And will be true for decades to come. Just don\u2019t expect to read about it in major media outlets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The hype, and the reality, about the energy transition in 10 charts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":327691,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818618],"class_list":{"0":"post-327673","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-energy-transition","10":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Energiewende-Collage_Final.cleaned-scaled-1.jpg?fit=2560%2C1854&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1nf3","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":334930,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=334930","url_meta":{"origin":327673,"position":0},"title":"Numbers Don\u2019t Lie","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/06\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"During his 16-year career in the NBA, Rasheed Wallace was among basketball\u2019s most intimidating power forwards. 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