{"id":327109,"date":"2024-05-07T16:44:07","date_gmt":"2024-05-07T14:44:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=327109"},"modified":"2024-05-07T16:44:10","modified_gmt":"2024-05-07T14:44:10","slug":"powerless-in-the-storm-climate-industry-misdirection","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=327109","title":{"rendered":"\u201cPowerless in the storm\u201d Climate Industry Misdirection"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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http:\/\/www.rarehistoricalphotos.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Roger Caiazza<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I came across a paper that concludes \u201cThe US power grid is proven to be highly reliable in general; however, the resilient and reliable grid operation is increasingly challenged by severe weather events\u2013events that are increasing in frequency and magnitude due to climate change.\u201d  I have many issues with this paper, but I am only going to discuss one.  Apparently peer reviewed papers today require marginal support for claiming increasing severity because everyone knows that climate change affects the frequency and magnitude of severe weather events<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The paper in question is  \u201cPowerless in the storm: Severe weather driven power outages in New York State, 2017\u20132020<\/a>\u201d (Flores NM, Northrop AJ, Do V, Gordon M, Jiang Y, Rudolph KE, et al. (2024) Powerless in the storm: Severe weather-driven power outages in New York State, 2017\u20132020. PLOS Clim 3(5): e0000364. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pclm.0000364<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only proof cited to \u201csupport climate change is increasing weather variability\u201d is the reference to this sentence: \u201cThe power grid\u2019s vulnerability to severe weather events becomes even more critical in the context of climate change, which is expected to increase weather variability and prevalence of extreme events (e.g., storms, wildfires, heatwaves, floods)\u201d.  The reference included cites the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report: IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Portner H.-O., Roberts D.C., Tignor M., Poloczanska E.S., Mintenbeck K., Alegr\u0131\u00b4a A., Craig M., Langsdorf S., Lo\u00a8schke S., Mo\u00a8 ller V., Okem A., Rama B. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 3056 pp., https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/9781009325844<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Other Side of the Story<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, if the authors were to look at the actual IPCC report rather than what they assumed it would say about the example weather events (storms, wildfires, heatwaves, floods) the narrative falls apart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The CO2 Coalition<\/a> published a paper prepared by Richard Lindzen, William Happer, Steven Koonin on April 16, 2024 titled Fossil Fuels and Greenhouse Gases Climate Science<\/strong><\/a>.  <\/strong>Richard Lindzen, Professor of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Emeritus  Massachusetts Institute of Technology; William Happer Professor of Physics, Emeritus Princeton University; and Steven Koonin  University Professor, New York University, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution reviewed what the IPCC documents actually said about these extreme weather events.  The paper explains:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hurricanes<\/strong>. A deep analysis of the facts reveals that \u201cthe data and research literature are starkly at odds with this message\u201d \u2014 \u201churricanes and tornadoes show no changes attributable to human influences.\u201d Id. pp. 111-12. Further, \u201cThere has been no significant trend in the global number of tropical cyclones nor has any trend been identified in the number of U.S. land-falling hurricanes.\u201d U.S. Global Climate Research Program, 3rd National Climate Assessment, Appendix 3, p. 769 (footnotes omitted).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wildfires<\/strong>. There is a powerful new source of data on wildfires, \u201cSophisticated satellite sensors first began monitoring wildfires globally in 1993.\u201d Id. p. 142.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The result of this new source of data is totally contrary to what is in the news. Unsettled <\/em>cites NASA data and others that show the global area burned by fires declined each year from 1998 to 2015:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cUnexpectedly, this analysis of the images shows that the area burned annually declined by about 25% from 1998 to 2015.\u201d Further, \u201cDespite the very destructive wildfires in 2020, that year was among the least active globally since 2003.\u201d Id. p. 142.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Heat Waves. <\/strong>On extreme temperatures in the U.S., we all agree: \u201cThe annual number of high temperature records set shows no significant trend over the past century<\/em>, nor over the past 40 years.\u201d <\/em>Koonin, supra<\/em>, p. 110.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Flooding<\/strong>: US data shows \u201cmodest changes in US rainfall during the past century haven\u2019t changed the average incidence of floods.\u201d Globally, data from the IPCC shows that there is \u201clow confidence <\/em>regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and\/or frequency of floods on a global scale.\u201d  We all agree with the summary in Unsettled<\/em>: \u201cwe don\u2019t know whether floods globally are increasing, decreasing, or doing nothing at all.\u201d Id. p. 137.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Discussion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have nothing to add to the main point that the authors of this paper just assumed that the IPCC found that extreme weather events were increasing despite evidence in the latest report to the contrary.  The peer review process did not call them out on this. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the record the authors, their roles and affiliations<\/a> follow:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nina M. Flores<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ROLES Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Writing \u2013 original draft, Writing \u2013 review & editing<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AFFILIATION Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alexander J. Northrop<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ROLES Conceptualization, Data curation, Writing \u2013 review & editing<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AFFILIATIONS Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America, Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vivian Do<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ROLES Conceptualization, Writing \u2013 review & editing<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AFFILIATION Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Milo Gordon<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ROLES Conceptualization, Writing \u2013 review & editing<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AFFILIATION Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yazhou Jiang<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ROLES Conceptualization, Writing \u2013 review & editing<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AFFILIATION Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Clarkson University, Potsdam, New York, United States of America<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kara E. Rudolph<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ROLES Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing \u2013 review & editing<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AFFILIATION Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Diana Hern\u00e1ndez<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ROLES Conceptualization, Writing \u2013 review & editing<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AFFILIATION Department of Sociomedical Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joan A. Casey<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ROLES Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Writing \u2013 review & editing<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AFFILIATIONS Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One final point is that my impression of the analysis is that the authors had pre-conceived conclusions in mind and tortured the data to get the results desired.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have to assume that this is an example of the Climate Industry\u2019 Misdirection Campaign<\/a> described recently by Kip Hansen<\/a>.  All of the authors are associated in some way with public health departments at universities.  I doubt that any of them has any background in climatology or meteorology beyond a possibly a class or two in introduction to Climate Change \u2013 The Existential Threat.  Today it is sufficient to just note that extreme weather is getting worse due to climate change to hype the results claimed because the peer reviewers know that is \u201ctrue\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Roger Caiazza blogs on New York energy and environmental issues at\u00a0Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York<\/a>.\u00a0 This represents his opinion and not the opinion of any of his previous employers or any other company with which he has been associated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I came across a paper that concludes \u201cThe US power grid is proven to be highly reliable in general; however, the resilient and reliable grid operation is increasingly challenged by severe weather events\u2013events that are increasing in frequency and magnitude due to climate change.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":327111,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691819743,691818836,691828521],"class_list":{"0":"post-327109","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-climate-propaganda","10":"tag-new-york-state","11":"tag-us-power-grid","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0New-York-City-blackout-1977-1.jpg?fit=1600%2C907&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1n5X","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":219007,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=219007","url_meta":{"origin":327109,"position":0},"title":"Fox Weather is Wrong: Climate Policy, Not Climate Change, Is Causing Power Outages","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/15\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"This storyline is fiction. 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My thinking has evolved to the point where I now believe that in a rational world it would be recognized that any electric grid relying on wind and solar\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"New York\"","block_context":{"text":"New York","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=new-york"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/OIG-20.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/OIG-20.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/OIG-20.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/OIG-20.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/327109","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=327109"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/327109\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":327113,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/327109\/revisions\/327113"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/327111"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=327109"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=327109"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=327109"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}