{"id":326531,"date":"2024-05-06T09:01:41","date_gmt":"2024-05-06T07:01:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=326531"},"modified":"2024-05-06T09:01:43","modified_gmt":"2024-05-06T07:01:43","slug":"cmip6-runs-running-wild","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=326531","title":{"rendered":"CMIP6 Runs Running Wild"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [See update at end]<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, for my usual unfathomable reasons and motives, I decided to take a look at individual model runs from the Computer Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And again, for no particular reason, I took a look at the three NOAA GFDL GFDL-ESM4 climate model runs prepared for the CMIP6 all-forcing simulation of the recent past. These are all available at the marvelous\u00a0KNMI website<\/a>. And here\u2019s what those three runs look like.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
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Figure 1. Three model runs of the NOAA GFDL GFDL-ESM4 climate model. These are of the SSP245 scenario. The vertical black line shows the 2014 end of the hindcast period and the start of the following forecast period.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Umm \u2026 err \u2026 seriously? Three runs of the same climate model using the same forcings and starting conditions and inputs<\/strong> are that far apart when trying to hindcast the past? I mean, not even trying to forecast the future, just trying to hindcast the past?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the climate establishment wants us to believe that these are anything more than a pathetic joke?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But wait, as they say on TV \u2026 there\u2019s more!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is the actual Berkeley Earth historical record, compared to the three model runs.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
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Figure 2. Three model runs of the NOAA GFDL GFDL-ESM4 climate model, plus the Berkeley Earth historical temperature Jan 1850 to Dec 2023.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Not much else to say about that \u2026 except that anyone depending on these climate models to tell us what\u2019s going to happen in the future should know that they can\u2019t even tell us what happened in the past \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[Update]<\/strong>: As Rud Istvan pointed out in the comments, Berkeley Earth is not either the only or necessarily the best historical record. I\u2019ve added HadCRUT5, the Japanese Meteorological Agency, and the UAH MSU lower tropical temperature records.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This highlights another problem with the field of climate science. Not only do the models differ as to the historical temperature record \u2026 there\u2019s also no agreement between observational reconstructions.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 3. The same 3 model runs as above, plus three observationally-based historical surface temperature reconstructions and the UAH MSU lower troposphere temperature.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

If I ran the zoo, the first thing I\u2019d do is get the scientists together and at least get an agreed-upon historical record \u2026 [Update End]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

My best to all, take a walk, enjoy your lives,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yeah, you\u2019ve heard it before:<\/strong> When you comment please quote the exact words you are referring to. And if you want to prove me wrong, you might want to read this<\/a> first.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Well, for my usual unfathomable reasons and motives, I decided to take a look at individual model runs from the Computer Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":326538,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818153,691819140,691828489],"class_list":{"0":"post-326531","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-models","9":"tag-climate-science","10":"tag-computer-model-intercomparison-project-6-cmip6","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/00Climate_still_globe.jpg?fit=2880%2C1620&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1mWD","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":390641,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=390641","url_meta":{"origin":326531,"position":0},"title":"CLAIM: Heatwaves to increase in frequency, duration under global warming","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/07\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"When I saw this press release from Portland State University, I knew I would not have to look far to spot the bias and\/or error. 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