{"id":326342,"date":"2024-05-05T08:16:12","date_gmt":"2024-05-05T06:16:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=326342"},"modified":"2024-05-05T08:16:14","modified_gmt":"2024-05-05T06:16:14","slug":"newsflash-science-not-settled-on-how-water-freezes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=326342","title":{"rendered":"Newsflash: Science Not Settled on How Water\u00a0Freezes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"482\" data-attachment-id=\"326354\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=326354\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0An-opened-bottle-of-water-placed-on-top-of-ice-cubes.jpg?fit=1500%2C1000&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1500,1000\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0An-opened-bottle-of-water-placed-on-top-of-ice-cubes\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0An-opened-bottle-of-water-placed-on-top-of-ice-cubes.jpg?fit=723%2C482&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0An-opened-bottle-of-water-placed-on-top-of-ice-cubes.jpg?resize=723%2C482&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-326354\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0An-opened-bottle-of-water-placed-on-top-of-ice-cubes.jpg?resize=1024%2C683&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0An-opened-bottle-of-water-placed-on-top-of-ice-cubes.jpg?resize=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0An-opened-bottle-of-water-placed-on-top-of-ice-cubes.jpg?resize=768%2C512&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0An-opened-bottle-of-water-placed-on-top-of-ice-cubes.jpg?resize=1200%2C800&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0An-opened-bottle-of-water-placed-on-top-of-ice-cubes.jpg?w=1500&amp;ssl=1 1500w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0An-opened-bottle-of-water-placed-on-top-of-ice-cubes.jpg?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/rclutz.com\/2024\/05\/04\/newsflash-science-not-settled-on-how-water-freezes\/\">Science Matters <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/rclutz.com\/author\/ronaldrc\/\">Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/24TB1vPuzIU?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here\u2019s a great short video for those who like to think science is settled on global warming\/climate change, as only one example of hubris despite our limited understanding of natural phenomena.&nbsp; Further on is a discussion of the climate system we see as chaotic, another way of saying its behavior surpasses our understanding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Readers here will know that I report frequently on the changes in Arctic ice extents during the year. So I was impressed to learn about fundamental mysteries underlying even this ordinary process. We do know a lot about the phase change of liquid water into ice.&nbsp; And we have a theoretical law that is predictable, but only when water is absolutely pure, i.e. only H2O with no gases or impurities dissolved in the sample.&nbsp; As the researcher explains, almost all of the water in nature has impurities and thus parts of the process are still beyond our scientific knowledge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Our Chaotic Climate System<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">h\/t tom0mason for inspiring this post, including his comment below<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"427\" data-attachment-id=\"326344\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=326344\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-91.png?fit=640%2C427&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,427\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-91\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-91.png?fit=640%2C427&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-91.png?resize=640%2C427&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-326344\" style=\"width:760px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-91.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-91.png?resize=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Foucault\u2019s pendulum in the Panth\u00e9on, Paris<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Pendulum is Settled Science<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I attended North Phoenix High School (Go Mustangs!) where students took their required physics class from a wild and crazy guy. Decades later alumni who don\u2019t remember his name still reminisce about \u201cthe crazy science teacher with the bowling ball.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To demonstrate the law of conservation of energy, he required each and every student to stand on a ladder in one corner of the classroom. Attached to a hook in the center of the rather high ceiling was a rope with a bowling ball on the other end. The student held the ball to his\/her nose and then released it, being careful to hold still afterwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 16 pound ball traveled majestically diagonally across the room and equally impressively returned along the same path. The proof of concept was established when the ball stopped before hitting your nose (though not by much). &nbsp;In those days we learned to trust science and didn\u2019t need to go out marching to signal some abstract virtue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The equations for pendulums are centuries old and can predict the position of the ball at any point in time based on the mass of the object, length of the rope and starting position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pictured above is the currently operating Foucault pendulum that exactly follows these equations. While it had long been known that the Earth rotates, the introduction of the Foucault pendulum in 1851 was the first simple proof of planetary rotation in an easy-to-see experiment. Today, Foucault pendulums are popular displays in science museums and universities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What About the Double Pendulum?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/upload.wikimedia.org\/wikipedia\/commons\/6\/65\/Trajektorie_eines_Doppelpendels.gif\" width=\"216\" height=\"190\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trajectories of a double pendulum<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com\/2017\/05\/01\/prof-tom-anderson-shows-his-ignorance\/#comment-91890\">comment&nbsp;<\/a>by tom0mason at alerted me to the science demonstrated by the double compound pendulum, that is, a second pendulum attached to the ball of the first one. It consists entirely of two simple objects functioning as pendulums, only now each is influenced by the behavior of the other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lo and behold, you observe that a double pendulum in motion produces chaotic behavior. In a remarkable achievement, complex equations have been developed that can and do predict the positions of the two balls over time, so in fact the movements are not truly chaotic, but with considerable effort can be determined. The equations and descriptions are at Wikipedia&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Double_pendulum\">Double Pendulum<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"432\" height=\"304\" data-attachment-id=\"326346\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=326346\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-92.png?fit=432%2C304&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"432,304\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-92\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-92.png?fit=432%2C304&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-92.png?resize=432%2C304&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-326346\" style=\"width:506px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-92.png?w=432&amp;ssl=1 432w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-92.png?resize=300%2C211&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 432px) 100vw, 432px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Long exposure of double pendulum exhibiting chaotic motion (tracked with an\u00a0LED)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But here is the kicker, as described in tomomason\u2019s comment:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>If you arrive to observe the double pendulum at an arbitrary time after the motion has started from an unknown condition (unknown height, initial force, etc) you will be very taxed mathematically to predict where in space the pendulum will move to next, on a second to second basis. Indeed it would take considerable time and many iterative calculations (preferably on a super-computer) to be able to perform this feat. And all this on a very basic system of known elementary mechanics.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"454\" height=\"264\" data-attachment-id=\"326348\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=326348\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-93.png?fit=454%2C264&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"454,264\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-93\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-93.png?fit=454%2C264&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-93.png?resize=454%2C264&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-326348\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-93.png?w=454&amp;ssl=1 454w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-93.png?resize=300%2C174&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 454px) 100vw, 454px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>And What about the Climate?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>This is a simple example of chaotic motion and its unpredictability. How predictable is our climate with so many variables and feedbacks, some known some unknown? Consider that this planet\u2019s weather\/climate system is chaotic in nature with many thousands (millions?) of loosely coupled variables and dependencies, and many of these variables have very complex feedback features within them.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"480\" data-attachment-id=\"326350\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=326350\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-94.png?fit=640%2C480&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,480\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-94\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-94.png?fit=640%2C480&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-94.png?resize=640%2C480&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-326350\" style=\"width:760px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-94.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-94.png?resize=300%2C225&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-94.png?resize=600%2C450&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-94.png?resize=400%2C300&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-94.png?resize=200%2C150&amp;ssl=1 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hurricane Gladys, photographed from orbit by Apollo 7 in 1968 (Photo: NASA)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To quote the IPCC:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. Rather the focus must be upon the prediction of the probability distribution of the system\u2019s future possible states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A recent National Review article draws the implications:<br><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nationalreview.com\/article\/447215\/climate-change-activists-science-deniers-environmentalism-public-policy\">The range of predicted future warming is enormous \u2014 apocalyptism is unwarranted.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>But as the IPCC emphasizes, the range for future projections remains enormous. The central question is \u201cclimate sensitivity\u201d \u2014 the amount of warming that accompanies a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. As of its Fifth Assessment Report in 2013, the IPCC could estimate only that this sensitivity is somewhere between 1.5 and 4.5\u00b0C. Nor is science narrowing that range. The 2013 assessment actually widened it on the low end, from a 2.0\u20134.5\u00b0C range in the prior assessment. And remember, for any specific level of warming, forecasts vary widely on the subsequent environmental and economic implications.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>For now, though, navigating the climate debate will require translating the phrase \u201cclimate denier\u201d to mean \u201canyone unsympathetic to the most aggressive activists\u2019 claims.\u201d This apparently includes anyone who acknowledges meaningful uncertainty in climate models, adopts a less-than-catastrophic outlook about the consequences of future warming, or opposes any facet of the activist policy agenda. The activists will be identifiable as the small group continuing to shout \u201cDenier!\u201d The \u201cdeniers\u201d will be identifiable as everyone else.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Climate System Summation<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Esteemed climate scientist Richard Lindzen ends a very fine recent presentation (<a href=\"http:\/\/merionwest.com\/2017\/04\/25\/richard-lindzen-thoughts-on-the-public-discourse-over-climate-change\/\">here<\/a>) with this description of the climate system:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>I haven\u2019t spent much time on the details of the science, but there is one thing that should spark skepticism in any intelligent reader. The system we are looking at consists in two turbulent fluids interacting with each other. They are on a rotating planet that is differentially heated by the sun. A vital constituent of the atmospheric component is water in the liquid, solid and vapor phases, and the changes in phase have vast energetic ramifications. The energy budget of this system involves the absorption and reemission of about 200 watts per square meter. Doubling CO2 involves a 2% perturbation to this budget. So do minor changes in clouds and other features, and such changes are common. In this complex multifactor system, what is the likelihood of the climate (which, itself, consists in many variables and not just globally averaged temperature anomaly) is controlled by this 2% perturbation in a single variable? Believing this is pretty close to believing in magic. Instead, you are told that it is believing in \u2018science.\u2019 Such a claim should be a tip-off that something is amiss. After all, science is a mode of inquiry rather than a belief structure.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"533\" data-attachment-id=\"326351\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=326351\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-95.png?fit=901%2C664&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"901,664\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-95\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-95.png?fit=723%2C533&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-95.png?resize=723%2C533&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-326351\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-95.png?w=901&amp;ssl=1 901w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-95.png?resize=300%2C221&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-95.png?resize=768%2C566&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>Flow Diagram for Climate Modeling, Showing Feedback Loops<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Here\u2019s a great short video for those who like to think science is settled on global warming\/climate change, as only one example of hubris despite our limited understanding of natural phenomena.\u00a0 Further on is a discussion of the climate system we see as chaotic, another way of saying its behavior surpasses our understanding.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":326354,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818465,691818056,691828476,691818087,691820694],"class_list":{"0":"post-326342","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-double-pendulum","11":"tag-global-warming","12":"tag-settled-science","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0An-opened-bottle-of-water-placed-on-top-of-ice-cubes.jpg?fit=1500%2C1000&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1mTA","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":281447,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=281447","url_meta":{"origin":326342,"position":0},"title":"The Myth of \u201cSettled\u201d Climate Science: A Revelatory Study on Cloud Formation","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From Watts Up With That? Trees, Clouds, and the Unsettling Truth about Climate Science In a recent revelation from the international CLOUD project at the nuclear research center CERN, researchers have identified sesquiterpenes\u2014gaseous hydrocarbons released by plants\u2014as a pivotal factor in cloud formation. This study, published in the journal\u00a0Science Advances,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"CERN\"","block_context":{"text":"CERN","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=cern"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0swaw_thunderstorm.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0swaw_thunderstorm.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0swaw_thunderstorm.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0swaw_thunderstorm.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0swaw_thunderstorm.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":215115,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=215115","url_meta":{"origin":326342,"position":1},"title":"Global Warming Groupthink","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"23\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"it became clear that many of\u00a0the most alarming and urgent fears about the effects of global warming were unfounded.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-985.png?fit=1023%2C433&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-985.png?fit=1023%2C433&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-985.png?fit=1023%2C433&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-985.png?fit=1023%2C433&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":215384,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=215384","url_meta":{"origin":326342,"position":2},"title":"\u2018There is No Climate Emergency\u2019 (1,107 Signatories and Counting)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201c\u2026 there is ample evidence that CO2 mitigation measures are as damaging as they are costly. Climate policy must respect scientific and economic realities. There is no climate emergency.\u201d","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-1045.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-1045.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-1045.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-1045.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":425713,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=425713","url_meta":{"origin":326342,"position":3},"title":"Why Climate Science Is Not Settled","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/02\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The repeated claim that climate science is \u201csettled\u201d overlooks myriad uncertainties, competing mechanisms and computer models that miss the mark when tested against reality. Declaring finality in such a field reflects political confidence \u2013 even arrogance \u2013 not scientific maturity.","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0AQMo1XGaeQQcNFE7By8rnPg2DNNGMScVl1vVPSO_bcfDjpgXqH50qmO0sNT-vTTt1qubDzE1c81-1PwiikFx2JImFd5V-Broaz0Ned3qGafLbkvT3WyK9-WII07-Vody-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0AQMo1XGaeQQcNFE7By8rnPg2DNNGMScVl1vVPSO_bcfDjpgXqH50qmO0sNT-vTTt1qubDzE1c81-1PwiikFx2JImFd5V-Broaz0Ned3qGafLbkvT3WyK9-WII07-Vody-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0AQMo1XGaeQQcNFE7By8rnPg2DNNGMScVl1vVPSO_bcfDjpgXqH50qmO0sNT-vTTt1qubDzE1c81-1PwiikFx2JImFd5V-Broaz0Ned3qGafLbkvT3WyK9-WII07-Vody-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0AQMo1XGaeQQcNFE7By8rnPg2DNNGMScVl1vVPSO_bcfDjpgXqH50qmO0sNT-vTTt1qubDzE1c81-1PwiikFx2JImFd5V-Broaz0Ned3qGafLbkvT3WyK9-WII07-Vody-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0AQMo1XGaeQQcNFE7By8rnPg2DNNGMScVl1vVPSO_bcfDjpgXqH50qmO0sNT-vTTt1qubDzE1c81-1PwiikFx2JImFd5V-Broaz0Ned3qGafLbkvT3WyK9-WII07-Vody-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":219864,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=219864","url_meta":{"origin":326342,"position":4},"title":"Does this explode the great global warming myth?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/09\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"THE \u2018greenhouse effect\u2019 has been with us for so long that it is taken as \u2018settled\u2019 science in most quarters. However, as a\u00a0new paper\u00a0shows, there is much still to debate.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1006.png?fit=1024%2C376&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1006.png?fit=1024%2C376&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1006.png?fit=1024%2C376&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1006.png?fit=1024%2C376&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":408385,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=408385","url_meta":{"origin":326342,"position":5},"title":"Does conventional climate science threaten civilization?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/10\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Practitioners of rigorous scientific methodology -- from the 17th century\u2019s Galileo to 1965\u2019s winner of the Nobel Prize in Physics, Richard Feynman -- would consider today\u2019s climate research an embarrassment, shaped by uncritical orthodoxy and zealotry rather than genuine testing of hypotheses.","rel":"","context":"In \"\u201csettled science\u201d\"","block_context":{"text":"\u201csettled science\u201d","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=settled-science-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQNT0_H_Qt4jcVFidHWvVzTh-YJaAqc1Omqmqa87Mfw-nc64BMYkWcQIQ0Lch0eHH2l96llnI0ovijdIiWqAMCWYYHjq8CRbmoHrOYxRdHhCmjL9vfCNQRgY-7SZiLdx-1.jpeg?fit=1026%2C941&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQNT0_H_Qt4jcVFidHWvVzTh-YJaAqc1Omqmqa87Mfw-nc64BMYkWcQIQ0Lch0eHH2l96llnI0ovijdIiWqAMCWYYHjq8CRbmoHrOYxRdHhCmjL9vfCNQRgY-7SZiLdx-1.jpeg?fit=1026%2C941&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQNT0_H_Qt4jcVFidHWvVzTh-YJaAqc1Omqmqa87Mfw-nc64BMYkWcQIQ0Lch0eHH2l96llnI0ovijdIiWqAMCWYYHjq8CRbmoHrOYxRdHhCmjL9vfCNQRgY-7SZiLdx-1.jpeg?fit=1026%2C941&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQNT0_H_Qt4jcVFidHWvVzTh-YJaAqc1Omqmqa87Mfw-nc64BMYkWcQIQ0Lch0eHH2l96llnI0ovijdIiWqAMCWYYHjq8CRbmoHrOYxRdHhCmjL9vfCNQRgY-7SZiLdx-1.jpeg?fit=1026%2C941&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/326342","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=326342"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/326342\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":326355,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/326342\/revisions\/326355"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/326354"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=326342"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=326342"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=326342"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}