{"id":325880,"date":"2024-05-04T13:22:05","date_gmt":"2024-05-04T11:22:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=325880"},"modified":"2024-05-04T13:22:08","modified_gmt":"2024-05-04T11:22:08","slug":"build-it-and-the-wind-wont-come","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=325880","title":{"rendered":"Build It, And The Wind Won\u2019t Come"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From <\/a>Robert Bryce\u2019s Substack<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robert Bryce<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weather-dependent generation sources are\u2026weather dependent: Last year, despite adding 6.2 GW of new capacity, U.S. wind production dropped by 2.1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Damaged wind turbines at the Punta Lima wind project, Naguabo, Puerto Rico, 2018. Photo:\u00a0Wikipedia<\/a>.<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Three years ago, in the wake of Winter Storm Uri, the alt-energy lobby and their many allies in the media made sure not to blame wind energy for the Texas blackouts. The American Clean Power Association (2021 revenue: $32.1 million<\/a>) declared frozen wind turbines \u201cdid not cause the Texas power outages<\/a>\u201d because they were \u201cnot the primary cause of the blackouts. Most of the power that went offline was powered by gas or coal.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NPR parroted that line, claiming, \u201cBlaming wind and solar is a political move<\/a>.\u201d The Texas Tribune<\/em> said it was wrong to blame alt-energy after Winter Storm Uri because \u201cwind power was expected to make up only a fraction of what the state had planned for<\/a> during the winter.\u201d The outlet also quoted one academic who said that natural gas was \u201cfailing in the most spectacular fashion right now.\u201d Texas Tribune<\/em> went on to explain, \u201cOnly 7% of ERCOT\u2019s forecasted winter capacity, or 6 gigawatts, was expected to come from various wind power sources across the state.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, there was no reason to expect the 33 GW of wind capacity that Texas had<\/a> to deliver because, you know, no one expected wind energy to produce much power. Expectations? Mr. October?<\/a> Playoff Jamal?<\/a> Who needs them?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But what happens when you build massive amounts of wind energy capacity and it doesn\u2019t deliver \u2014 not for a day or a week, but for six months, or even an entire year? That question is germane because, on Wednesday,\u00a0the Energy Information Administration published a report showing that U.S. wind energy production declined by 2.1% last year<\/a>. Even more shocking: that decline occurred even though the wind sector added 6.2 GW of new capacity!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A hat tip to fellow Substack writer Roger Pielke Jr.<\/a>, who pithily noted on Twitter yesterday<\/a>, \u201cImagine if the U.S. built 6.2 GW new capacity in nuclear power plants and after starting them up, overall U.S. electricity generation went down. That’d be a problem, right?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Um, yes. It would. And the EIA made that point in its usual dry language. \u201cGeneration from wind turbines decreased for the first time since the mid-1990s in 2023 despite the addition of 6.2 GW of new wind capacity last year,\u201d the agency reported. The EIA also explained that the capacity factor for America\u2019s wind energy fleet, also known as the average utilization rate, \u201cfell to an eight-year low of 33.5%.\u201d That compares to 35.9% capacity factor in 2022 which was the all-time high. The report continued, \u201cLower wind speeds than normal affected wind generation in 2023, especially during the first half of the year when wind generation dropped by 14% compared with the same period in 2022.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read that again. For half of last year, wind generation was down by a whopping 14% due to lower wind speeds. Imagine if that wind drought continued for an entire year. That\u2019s certainly possible. Recall that\u00a0last summer, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation warned<\/a>\u00a0that U.S. generation capacity \u201cis increasingly characterized as one that is sensitive to extreme, widespread, and long duration temperatures as well as wind and solar droughts.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, corporate investment in wind energy between 2004 and 2022 totaled some $278 billion. In addition, according to data from the Treasury Department, the U.S. government spent more than $30 billion on the production tax credit over that same period. Thus, over the last two decades, the U.S. has spent more than $300 billion building 150 GW of wind capacity<\/a> that has gobbled up massive amounts of land, garnered enormous (and bitter) opposition from rural Americans<\/a>, and hasn\u2019t gotten more efficient over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wednesday\u2019s EIA report is a stark reminder that all of that generation capacity is subject to the vagaries of the wind. Imagine if the U.S. had spent that same $300 billion on a weather-resilient form of generation, like, say, nuclear power. That\u2019s relevant because Unit 4 at Plant Vogtle in Georgia came online on Monday<\/a>. With that same $300 billion, the U.S. could have built 20, 30, or maybe even 40 GW of new nuclear reactors with a 92% capacity factor<\/a> that wouldn\u2019t rely on the whims of the wind. In addition, those dozens of reactors would have required a tiny fraction of the land now covered by thousands of viewshed-destroying, bat-and-bird-killing wind turbines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If climate change means we will face more extreme weather in the years ahead \u2014 hotter, colder, and\/or more severe temperatures for extended periods \u2014 it\u2019s Total Bonkers CrazytownTM <\/sup>to make our electric grid dependent on the weather. But by lavishing staggering amounts of money on wind and solar energy, and in many cases, mandating<\/em> wind and solar<\/em>, that\u2019s precisely what we are doing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While chasing Moby Dick, Captain Ahab uttered a line that seems to fit the current moment: \u201cWere I the wind, I’d blow no more on such a wicked, miserable world<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Weather-dependent generation sources are\u2026weather dependent: Last year, despite adding 6.2 GW of new capacity, U.S. wind production dropped by 2.1%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":325889,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691828465,691818577,691828464,691820740],"class_list":{"0":"post-325880","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-frozen-wind-turbines","9":"tag-texas","10":"tag-u-s-wind-production","11":"tag-wind-energy","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-wind-energy.webp?fit=1245%2C701&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1mM8","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":329098,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=329098","url_meta":{"origin":325880,"position":0},"title":"Wind Power for\u00a0Beginners","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/05\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Weather-dependent generation sources are\u2026weather dependent: Last year, despite adding 6.2 GW of new capacity, U.S. wind production dropped by 2.1%.","rel":"","context":"In \"Texas blackouts\"","block_context":{"text":"Texas blackouts","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=texas-blackouts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Harnessing-Arctic-Winds-The-Remarkable-Success-of-Wind-Turbines-in-the-Frozen-North.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Harnessing-Arctic-Winds-The-Remarkable-Success-of-Wind-Turbines-in-the-Frozen-North.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Harnessing-Arctic-Winds-The-Remarkable-Success-of-Wind-Turbines-in-the-Frozen-North.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Harnessing-Arctic-Winds-The-Remarkable-Success-of-Wind-Turbines-in-the-Frozen-North.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Harnessing-Arctic-Winds-The-Remarkable-Success-of-Wind-Turbines-in-the-Frozen-North.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":208552,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=208552","url_meta":{"origin":325880,"position":1},"title":"Texas Heatwave Highlights a Major Problem with Wind Power","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/07\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Texas is suffering a major heat wave. 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