{"id":319724,"date":"2024-04-22T13:55:26","date_gmt":"2024-04-22T11:55:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=319724"},"modified":"2024-04-22T13:55:29","modified_gmt":"2024-04-22T11:55:29","slug":"now-you-sea-ice-now-you-dont","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=319724","title":{"rendered":"Now You Sea Ice, Now You Don\u2019t"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I got to thinking about sea ice and the climate models. Here\u2019s what we know about polar sea ice extent, showing data that starts with the satellite era when we began to have accurate observations of the poles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 1. Arctic, Antarctic, and global sea ice extent. Colored lines are CEEMD smooths of the underlying datasets.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Now, there are some rather large curiosities regarding the sea ice extent records.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • The North Pole is a liquid ocean covered with sea ice, with most of the ice polewards of 70\u00b0N. The South Pole is a giant chunk of frozen rock surrounded by sea ice, with almost no ice polewards of 70\u00b0S. So why do both poles have about the same extent of sea ice?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • From the start of the satellite era up until ~2015, Arctic sea ice extent was decreasing and Antarctic sea ice extent was increasing \u2026 and as a result, total global sea ice extent was relatively constant, with 2014 having about the same global sea ice extent as 1978. Why?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Around 2015, Antarctic sea ice extent started dropping rapidly \u2026 but Arctic sea ice stopped dropping and leveled off up to the present. Why?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • After dropping precipitously for a couple of years, Antarctic sea ice extent leveled off again \u2026 and as a result, global ice extent also leveled off. Why?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Here\u2019s the interesting part. Nobody knows the answers to any of those questions.<\/strong> And I suppose predictably, since they\u2019re based on our (mis)understandings of the climate, none of the climate models either forecasts or hindcasts sea ice extent doing anything even remotely similar to the actual observations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    So I\u2019ll leave this here as a testament to just how little we understand the magnificent global heat engine that we call the climate \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    My best to all,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    I got to thinking about sea ice and the climate models. Here\u2019s what we know about polar sea ice extent, showing data that starts with the satellite era when we began to have accurate observations of the poles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":319728,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819072,691818153,691828268,691818895,691828269],"class_list":["post-319724","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-antarctic-sea-ice","tag-climate-models","tag-north-pole","tag-sea-ice","tag-south-pole","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0-Antarctic-sea-ice.jpeg?fit=1831%2C1200&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1laQ","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":423104,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=423104","url_meta":{"origin":319724,"position":0},"title":"\u00a0Polar Colding\u2026Antarctica Saw Its Coldest October in 44 Years!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/25\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"On October 15, 2025, the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station (the U.S. research base at the geographic South Pole) recorded a temperature of -61.3\u00b0C (-81.34\u00b0F) at around 07:00 local time. 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Ice mass naturally grows and shrinks in the north and south poles.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-512.png?fit=1200%2C781&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-512.png?fit=1200%2C781&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-512.png?fit=1200%2C781&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-512.png?fit=1200%2C781&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-512.png?fit=1200%2C781&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":294385,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=294385","url_meta":{"origin":319724,"position":3},"title":"The Embarrassing Pause In Arctic Sea Ice Loss Has Lasted 17 Years, Defying IPCC, NSIDC Predictions","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/09\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Scientists have been using the year 2007 as the starting point for assessing Arctic sea ice trends for nearly a decade. 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