{"id":319356,"date":"2024-04-21T21:20:49","date_gmt":"2024-04-21T19:20:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=319356"},"modified":"2024-04-21T21:20:53","modified_gmt":"2024-04-21T19:20:53","slug":"new-study-unveils-global-warmings-65-year-old-evaporation-paradox-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=319356","title":{"rendered":"New Study Unveils Global Warming\u2019s 65-Year-Old \u2018Evaporation Paradox\u2019 Problem"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From NoTricksZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Kenneth Richard<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Evaporation is supposed to increase with warming. But, per a new study (Jin et al., 2024<\/a>), \u201cobservation results around the world have shown that evaporation has been steadily declining since the 1950s.\u201d This is referred to as the anthropogenic global warming \u201cevaporation paradox\u201d problem, where models and assumptions are contradicted by observations.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the IPCC (AR6<\/a><\/strong>) and the most seminal paper on the subject (Trenberth, 2011<\/a><\/strong>, with 3800 citations), \u201canthropogenic forcings will drive an increase in global mean evaporation over most oceanic areas (high confidence),\u201d as \u201cincreased heating leads to greater evaporation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Image Source:\u00a0IPCC, 2021 (AR6<\/a><\/strong>),\u00a0Trenberth, 2011<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But new paper<\/a><\/strong> once again points out that observations conflict with the anthropogenic global warming narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cParadoxically, against the backdrop of rising global temperatures, terrestrial observation results around the world have shown that Epan has been steadily declining since the 1950s\u2026\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe \u2018evaporation paradox\u2019 phenomenon has been reported in many studies on regional or global scales.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors acknowledge it is \u201cwidely proposed\u201d there will be \u201cincreased evaporation in open water bodies\u201d with warming. So their results, which show declining evaporation since the 1950s, may \u201cseem surprising.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAt first glance, these results may seem surprising, since the near-surface air temperature has been rising, and it is widely proposed that warming climate will make the air drier and promote the hydrological cycle, which will lead to increased evaporation in open water bodies, including pan evaporators.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If it can indeed be established that evaporation increases with warming, and, simultaneously, evaporation trends can be shown to be declining, at what point do we question if there has indeed been sufficiently significant warming in the regions where evaporation is declining? Why is referring to these trends as a surprising \u201cparadox\u201d that can perhaps be explained away with more assumptions the better option?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Image Source:\u00a0Jin et al., 2024<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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