{"id":318583,"date":"2024-04-17T12:53:27","date_gmt":"2024-04-17T10:53:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=318583"},"modified":"2024-04-17T12:53:30","modified_gmt":"2024-04-17T10:53:30","slug":"glut-in-californian-home-solar-causes-bubble-to-pop-sales-down-75","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=318583","title":{"rendered":"Glut in Californian home-solar causes bubble to pop: sales down 75%"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From JoNova <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Jo Nova<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

California was the Land of Solar Panels at the top of the Magic Subsidy Tree but that boom went bust<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

If solar panels were actually cheap and useful, everyone could have them, they\u2019d pay for themselves, and there would be no point where the panel-party would grind to a halt. But if they were expensive, made something useless, and their product became toxic to the grid itself  the government would have to artificially subsidize them to get them onto the grid in the first place, and then pop its own bubble before the bubble popped the grid. And so that time has arrived in California and there is carnage in the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Duck has quacked<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

In a strange coincidence the Californian government cut the payments for solar-powered-electricity by 75% last year, and sales of solar panels fell to<\/em> a quarter of what they were a year ago. That\u2019s a \u201cto\u201d not a \u201cby\u201d. One in five solar contractors has already left the market. Careers and businesses \u2014 gone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new price for solar-powered-electricity is probably slightly closer to the true market value, which is almost zero, or even less for holy-green electricity at noon. The Duck Curve is the shape the daily load curve makes. As more and more solar panels are added to the grid the demand for electricity falls at midday, but stays the same at breakfast and dinner. So the amount of electricity required for the state gradually develops a \u201cbelly\u201d at noon, and looks like a duck. As more solar panels are added, the grid ends up with too much electricity at midday, which is such a problem it has to pay someone else to use it. In a real free market, negative wholesale prices at midday should have killed off the solar panel rooftop industry years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
EIA<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

by Phred Dvorak, The Wall Street Journal<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Home-Solar Boom Gets a \u2018Gut Punch\u2019<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Nation\u2019s biggest residential solar market is tanking and installations could decline 13% nationwide, despite clean energy push<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The state has installed so many panels that it has a glut of solar power during the day<\/a>. Last year, California implemented new rules that cut the amount of compensation most rooftop solar owners get for the electricity they send to the grid by 75% or more to manage the oversupply and soaring costs for upgrading the grid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Residential solar sales have dropped to a quarter of what they were a year ago, and more than a fifth of the state\u2019s solar contractors have been laid off, according to some estimates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt was like getting a gut punch,\u201d says Carlos Beccar, marketing director of Fresno-based Energy Concepts, a solar installer that had to lay off more than half its 75 employees after sales plummeted as much as 90% following the new rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The journalists spin the solar excuses<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, California\u2019s solar growth is outpacing the ability of its grid to handle it.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s not that solar-electricity is a useless toxic byproduct of subsidies, it\u2019s that solar is so good, the grid is not ready for it. In other words, it\u2019s all your fault. You need to pay more for that grid \u201cupgrade\u201d, or storage, or something so the little solar flowers can thrive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Who knew, the job of the grid was not to supply electricity, but to \u201cabsorb\u201d the subsidy farmers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The state already supplies more than a third of its power with renewables, and it plans to raise that ratio to 60% by 2030. But because the state\u2019s grid can\u2019t absorb all the solar power<\/strong> generated during the day, it ends up throwing increasing amounts of it away or curtailing it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Get ready, the next step is to corral us into paying more to solve the mess they created:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Part of the rationale behind the state\u2019s new solar billing rules is to encourage households to buy batteries<\/strong>, which can store power for use later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See how the planned economy works? The subsidies forced useless white elephants onto the grid. The fees to cover the costs were set so the people without solar had to pay the subsidies. So their electricity bills went up until their wallets bled, and they begged to buy solar panels \u201cbecause electricity costs had risen\u201d. Then the government changed the conditions so that people with solar really needed to buy a battery \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 30% of homes in Australia have solar panels installed<\/a>. In California, in 2019 apparently 44% of homes had solar panels<\/a>. But as extreme as that is, California is connected to other states in the US, so it can offload the extra electricity, or upload electrical juice from other reliable generators. Australia doesn\u2019t have that option. We have to put the spare electricity in shoe boxes and float it over to Papua New Guinea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Image by\u00a0Charlie Wilde<\/a>\u00a0from\u00a0Pixabay<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If solar panels were actually cheap and useful, everyone could have them, they\u2019d pay for themselves, and there would be no point where the panel-party would grind to a halt. But if they were expensive, made something useless, and their product became toxic to the grid itself the government would have to artificially subsidize them to get them onto the grid in the first place, and then pop its own bubble before the bubble popped the grid. And so that time has arrived in California and there is carnage in the market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":318588,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818068,691828197,691818412,691818445],"class_list":["post-318583","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-california","tag-holy-green-electricity","tag-solar-panels","tag-subsidy","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/01415359751510_wps_27_A_visionary_architect_has.jpg?fit=1908%2C1146&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1kSr","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":344835,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=344835","url_meta":{"origin":318583,"position":0},"title":"Australian grid risks an overload at lunchtime as solar power floods the system","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s grand final day in Australia, and awkwardly the State of Victoria risks a grid overload. A truckload of solar power will arrive at lunchtime that no one needs, and which has no place to go.","rel":"","context":"In \"Australia\"","block_context":{"text":"Australia","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=australia"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0grid_overload_by_ai_visions_df9lwab-pre.jpg?fit=1192%2C670&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0grid_overload_by_ai_visions_df9lwab-pre.jpg?fit=1192%2C670&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0grid_overload_by_ai_visions_df9lwab-pre.jpg?fit=1192%2C670&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0grid_overload_by_ai_visions_df9lwab-pre.jpg?fit=1192%2C670&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0grid_overload_by_ai_visions_df9lwab-pre.jpg?fit=1192%2C670&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":337396,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=337396","url_meta":{"origin":318583,"position":1},"title":"The solar boom has busted: In the last six months Europe\u2019s solar manufacturing has collapsed by half\u2026","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/24\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Forty year old German solar panel producers are closing factories they only opened three years ago. The world now has the capacity to make 1,600 GW of solar panels annually, but demand has unexpectedly flat-lined \u2014 staying at barely 500GW. In a world awash with solar panels that no one\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Europe\"","block_context":{"text":"Europe","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=europe"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0-solar-panels.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0-solar-panels.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0-solar-panels.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0-solar-panels.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0-solar-panels.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":393057,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=393057","url_meta":{"origin":318583,"position":2},"title":"Shh! Chinese solar firms sacked one-third of their workers \u2014 87,000 solar jobs gone","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Quietly, the world manufacturing base for solar panels has been shrinking for nearly two years and yet hardly anyone knows.\u00a0 Especially not the Prime Minister of Australia who set up the\u00a0$1 billion\u00a0Solar Sunshot\u00a0a year ago to artificially create an Australian solar panel manufacturing industry, twenty years too late, and with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"China\"","block_context":{"text":"China","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=china"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQMfXm78arntAh67FvLCYdtapYTxpyehvvjJNfxiH-wXJmBtMGtuL8J1mrBKvuwiytSWkYDVoOSbV2ZaCRtrwfTjPTj9swFZMdPomM-h3EpAJWDxmZqJ7yMwRr-lkE9WJ_ZCRG4WfPtWn2mybJ7hOHnc-1HtAA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQMfXm78arntAh67FvLCYdtapYTxpyehvvjJNfxiH-wXJmBtMGtuL8J1mrBKvuwiytSWkYDVoOSbV2ZaCRtrwfTjPTj9swFZMdPomM-h3EpAJWDxmZqJ7yMwRr-lkE9WJ_ZCRG4WfPtWn2mybJ7hOHnc-1HtAA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQMfXm78arntAh67FvLCYdtapYTxpyehvvjJNfxiH-wXJmBtMGtuL8J1mrBKvuwiytSWkYDVoOSbV2ZaCRtrwfTjPTj9swFZMdPomM-h3EpAJWDxmZqJ7yMwRr-lkE9WJ_ZCRG4WfPtWn2mybJ7hOHnc-1HtAA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQMfXm78arntAh67FvLCYdtapYTxpyehvvjJNfxiH-wXJmBtMGtuL8J1mrBKvuwiytSWkYDVoOSbV2ZaCRtrwfTjPTj9swFZMdPomM-h3EpAJWDxmZqJ7yMwRr-lkE9WJ_ZCRG4WfPtWn2mybJ7hOHnc-1HtAA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQMfXm78arntAh67FvLCYdtapYTxpyehvvjJNfxiH-wXJmBtMGtuL8J1mrBKvuwiytSWkYDVoOSbV2ZaCRtrwfTjPTj9swFZMdPomM-h3EpAJWDxmZqJ7yMwRr-lkE9WJ_ZCRG4WfPtWn2mybJ7hOHnc-1HtAA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":394698,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=394698","url_meta":{"origin":318583,"position":3},"title":"Electric power fantasies collide out West","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/12\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Westerners are independent people. This independence is even reflected in the West\u2019s electric power grid. There are two major American grids, called respectively the Eastern and Western Interconnections. The north-south dividing line is roughly just east of Colorado. Texas, which never got over being a separate country for nine years,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"AI (artificial intelligence)\"","block_context":{"text":"AI (artificial intelligence)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ai-artificial-intelligence-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQNHl9AKaUujnp_oKefu2SSDZXqj5kkKnpsg2QUx1mG9gJiWTdguYjXMjVIa4vDgyWpjb0eadWQTVMvjaIrrOSiDo6A8U0tP3foiGqRpDmQ-EIlH29q2AYMajvpHZF9wJy_ZLSIM_tJ0TKAcwD65T_m0BEvRig-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQNHl9AKaUujnp_oKefu2SSDZXqj5kkKnpsg2QUx1mG9gJiWTdguYjXMjVIa4vDgyWpjb0eadWQTVMvjaIrrOSiDo6A8U0tP3foiGqRpDmQ-EIlH29q2AYMajvpHZF9wJy_ZLSIM_tJ0TKAcwD65T_m0BEvRig-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQNHl9AKaUujnp_oKefu2SSDZXqj5kkKnpsg2QUx1mG9gJiWTdguYjXMjVIa4vDgyWpjb0eadWQTVMvjaIrrOSiDo6A8U0tP3foiGqRpDmQ-EIlH29q2AYMajvpHZF9wJy_ZLSIM_tJ0TKAcwD65T_m0BEvRig-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQNHl9AKaUujnp_oKefu2SSDZXqj5kkKnpsg2QUx1mG9gJiWTdguYjXMjVIa4vDgyWpjb0eadWQTVMvjaIrrOSiDo6A8U0tP3foiGqRpDmQ-EIlH29q2AYMajvpHZF9wJy_ZLSIM_tJ0TKAcwD65T_m0BEvRig-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQNHl9AKaUujnp_oKefu2SSDZXqj5kkKnpsg2QUx1mG9gJiWTdguYjXMjVIa4vDgyWpjb0eadWQTVMvjaIrrOSiDo6A8U0tP3foiGqRpDmQ-EIlH29q2AYMajvpHZF9wJy_ZLSIM_tJ0TKAcwD65T_m0BEvRig-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":379557,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=379557","url_meta":{"origin":318583,"position":4},"title":"Why \u201ccheaper\u201d solar raises costs. Part II: The hidden costs of residential solar","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/23\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In Part 1, we showed how wind and solar\u2019s low costs over 80% of the time are overwhelmed by expenses at peak times such that they offer no cost advantages to the generation mix. Residential solar follows a similar pattern: it seems affordable for homeowners but raises system costs through\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"California\"","block_context":{"text":"California","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=california"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-23.-Mai-2025-10_12_49.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-23.-Mai-2025-10_12_49.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-23.-Mai-2025-10_12_49.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-23.-Mai-2025-10_12_49.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":340090,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=340090","url_meta":{"origin":318583,"position":5},"title":"The Solar Panel cyber threat: Dutch hacker gets into 4 million panels in 150 countries","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/20\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Imagine a hostile force had control of half your national power generation at lunchtime and could just flip a switch to bring you to your knees? Or how about a crime syndicate wanting a ransom paid by 5pm?","rel":"","context":"In \"cyber threat\"","block_context":{"text":"cyber threat","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=cyber-threat"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0cyber-security-hacking-solar-panels.webp?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0cyber-security-hacking-solar-panels.webp?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0cyber-security-hacking-solar-panels.webp?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0cyber-security-hacking-solar-panels.webp?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0cyber-security-hacking-solar-panels.webp?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/318583","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=318583"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/318583\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":318590,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/318583\/revisions\/318590"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/318588"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=318583"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=318583"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=318583"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}