{"id":318573,"date":"2024-04-17T12:04:38","date_gmt":"2024-04-17T10:04:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=318573"},"modified":"2024-04-17T12:04:41","modified_gmt":"2024-04-17T10:04:41","slug":"cloudy-with-a-chance-of-stability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=318573","title":{"rendered":"Cloudy With A Chance Of Stability"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I got to thinking about the clouds again. They\u2019re easily the least understood part of the climate. So let me start with what we do know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, clouds cool the planet. Here\u2019s the effect of clouds on the surface.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 1. Net cloud surface radiative effect. Includes the effect of the clouds on both downwelling shortwave (solar radiation) and downwelling longwave (thermal radiation from the atmosphere) at the surface.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

There are some interesting things about Figure 1. First, clouds cool the planet everywhere except the poles and the deserts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next, over the ice-free parts of the ocean, the clouds only cool the ocean surface. No part of the ocean is warmed by the clouds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, the more clouds, the more it cools the surface. That\u2019s why the moist tropical areas, with their extensive cloud cover, are receiving the most cooling from the clouds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With that as prologue, here\u2019s a thought experiment. Suppose you could control the amount of clouds, and you wanted to create a thermoregulatory system that would stabilize the temperature of the earth. How would you go about it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, it seems to me that you\u2019d want a system where if the planet started out cold, the warmer it got the fewer clouds it would have. Fewer clouds mean less cooling, and that would encourage the system to continue warming \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 but you\u2019d only want less clouds up to a certain point. Once you reached the desired temperature, then you\u2019d want the reverse to happen. Above that temperature, if it warmed further you\u2019d want more clouds, to tend to drive the temperature back down to the desired point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So you\u2019d want the response of the clouds to look something like this:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 2. Sample of the kind of cloud response that would tend to stabilize the temperature of the earth.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

In Figure 2, the amount of clouds decreases as you go from freezing to about 20\u00b0C. But further warming brings increasing clouds, tending to drive the temperature back down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And to move from our thought experiment to the real world, here\u2019s the actual relationship between cloud area and surface temperature. I\u2019ve used only the unfrozen sea surface temperature, to avoid the complications of ice, mountains, and deserts. However, the full globe shows the same pattern, just with more scatter.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 3. Scatterplot, CERES cloud cover percentage versus Reynolds OI sea surface temperature.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Note that what is shown in Fig. 3 is that the preferred temperature occurs in the tropics at around 25\u00b0 \u2013 27\u00b0C. Colder than that and clouds decrease with increasing temperature. Warmer than that, and the clouds increase very rapidly, putting a cap on the tropical temperature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In closing, there are other variables in the equation. For example, at the warm end, the clouds are composed of more and more thunderstorms, which cool the surface in a variety of ways, not just the effects on radiation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

And that\u2019s all the fun I\u2019m allowed to have in a 24-hour period \u2026 my floor-mounted gas heater died, and I need to crawl under the house, pull out the thermocouple, test it to see if that\u2019s the problem, and if so, go to town, buy a new one, and crawl back under the house to replace it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do I know how to have a good time, or what?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Best to all,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I got to thinking about the clouds again. They\u2019re easily the least understood part of the climate. So let me start with what we do know.<\/p>\n

Overall, clouds cool the planet. Here\u2019s the effect of clouds on the surface.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":318580,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818465,691818432,691819222],"class_list":["post-318573","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate","tag-clouds","tag-temperature","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00wp6904217.webp?fit=1920%2C1200&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1kSh","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":254686,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=254686","url_meta":{"origin":318573,"position":0},"title":"The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 2, the Impact of Clouds","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/26\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The yearly net impact of clouds on outgoing and incoming radiation varies over one W\/m2\u00a0from year-to-year, according to CERES satellite data.[1]\u00a0AR6 tells us that cloud feedbacks, to GHG surface warming, are the largest source of uncertainty in their assessment of the warming in the past century as we can see\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"AR6 ECS\"","block_context":{"text":"AR6 ECS","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ar6-ecs"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00cumulus-cloud-1428590128Abv-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00cumulus-cloud-1428590128Abv-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00cumulus-cloud-1428590128Abv-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00cumulus-cloud-1428590128Abv-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00cumulus-cloud-1428590128Abv-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":250795,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=250795","url_meta":{"origin":318573,"position":1},"title":"Water Vapor, Clouds Are The Real Direct Masters Controlling Our Climate","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/02\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Clouds reduce the energy at the surface, i.e. they currently cool the climate.\u00a0","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-clouds-vapour.jpeg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-clouds-vapour.jpeg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-clouds-vapour.jpeg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-clouds-vapour.jpeg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-clouds-vapour.jpeg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":277031,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=277031","url_meta":{"origin":318573,"position":2},"title":"Observational and theoretical evidence that cloud feedback decreases global warming","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/03\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Well, I decided to take a shot at publishing my views on the cloud feedback response to increases in surface warming. 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