{"id":317402,"date":"2024-04-11T09:00:09","date_gmt":"2024-04-11T07:00:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=317402"},"modified":"2024-04-11T09:00:12","modified_gmt":"2024-04-11T07:00:12","slug":"arctic-sea-ice-air-interactions-weaken-el-nino-southern-oscillation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=317402","title":{"rendered":"Arctic sea ice\u2013air interactions weaken El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"362\" data-attachment-id=\"317409\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=317409\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00nesdis-el-nino.png?fit=1800%2C900&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1800,900\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"00nesdis-el-nino\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00nesdis-el-nino.png?fit=723%2C362&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00nesdis-el-nino.png?resize=723%2C362&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-317409\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00nesdis-el-nino.png?resize=1024%2C512&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00nesdis-el-nino.png?resize=300%2C150&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00nesdis-el-nino.png?resize=768%2C384&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00nesdis-el-nino.png?resize=1536%2C768&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00nesdis-el-nino.png?resize=1200%2C600&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00nesdis-el-nino.png?w=1800&amp;ssl=1 1800w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00nesdis-el-nino.png?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2024\/04\/07\/arctic-sea-ice-air-interactions-weaken-el-nino-southern-oscillation\/\">Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>This genre of paper is interesting. Underlying the research is the assumption that climate model simulations are data or reality. The researchers then perform an in-depth analysis of these PlayStation worlds as if the simulations represented physical reality.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A new study, published in&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>Science Advances<\/em><\/a>&nbsp;by researchers at the University at Albany and Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology in China, has found that these events, which typically occur once every few years, might become even stronger due to melting Arctic sea ice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Using a combination of climate model simulations and observational data, the researchers found that the current interaction of Arctic sea ice with the atmosphere reduces the strength of El Ni\u00f1o events by up to 17%, compared to when the interaction is removed.<a href=\"https:\/\/phys.org\/news\/2024-04-atmospheric-scientists-link-arctic-sea.amp\">https:\/\/phys.org\/news\/2024-04-atmospheric-scientists-link-arctic-sea.amp<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"720\" height=\"324\" data-attachment-id=\"317404\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=317404\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-150.png?fit=720%2C324&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"720,324\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-150\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-150.png?fit=720%2C324&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-150.png?resize=720%2C324&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-317404\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-150.png?w=720&amp;ssl=1 720w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-150.png?resize=300%2C135&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To reach their findings, the researchers performed and analyzed two global climate model simulations for 500 years using the Community Earth System Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The simulations, carried out on a computer hosted at the UAlbany Data Center, had fixed atmospheric CO<sub>2<\/sub>&nbsp;levels, one with sea ice-air interactions in the Arctic, and another without it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By examining the difference between the two simulations, the researchers found that Arctic sea ice-air interactions weaken El Ni\u00f1o-related variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean by about 12 to 17%, compared to when the interaction was removed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe difference between the two model simulations represents the impact of the Arctic sea ice-air coupling, which led to significant changes in tropical Pacific Ocean mean climate states and El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation strength. This was mainly due to asymmetric impacts of positive and negative sea-ice anomalies on surface fluxes, the exchange of heat crossing the surface between the ocean and the atmosphere,\u201d said Jiechun Deng, an associate professor at Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology and the study\u2019s lead author.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cOur findings highlight the crucial role of sea ice-air interactions in regulating El Ni\u00f1o activity over the tropical Pacific. It calls for a more realistic representation of such interactions in current&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/phys.org\/tags\/climate+models\/\">climate models<\/a>, to better project El Ni\u00f1o and its various impacts in a warming future.\u201d<a href=\"https:\/\/phys.org\/news\/2024-04-atmospheric-scientists-link-arctic-sea.amp\">https:\/\/phys.org\/news\/2024-04-atmospheric-scientists-link-arctic-sea.amp<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Here is the abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Abstract<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the tropical Pacific can affect Arctic climate, but whether it can be influenced by the Arctic is unclear. Using model simulations, we show that Arctic sea ice\u2013air interactions weaken ENSO by about 12 to 17%. The northern North Pacific Ocean warms due to increased absorption of solar radiation under such interactions. The warming excites an anomalous tropospheric Rossby wave propagating equatorward into the tropical Pacific to strengthen cross-equator winds and deepen the thermocline. These mean changes dampen ENSO amplitude via weakened thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks. Observed historical changes from 1921\u20131960 (with strong sea ice\u2013air interactions) to 1971\u20132000 (with weak interactions) are qualitatively consistent with the model results. Our findings suggest that Arctic sea ice\u2013air interactions affect both the mean state and variability in the tropical Pacific, and imply increased ENSO amplitude as Arctic sea ice and its interactions with the atmosphere diminish under anthropogenic warming.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990\">https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Here is a \u201csummation\u201d of what the researchers \u201cfound\u201d.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Arctic\u2013to\u2013tropical Pacific teleconnection<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How would the above mean-state changes over the Arctic and northern North Pacific (mainly the BOS region) cause remote mean-state changes over the tropical Pacific? During JJAS, the increased surface net upward energy over the BOS in FC due to the sea ice\u2013air coupling causes tropospheric warming that is largest near the surface and extends to ~200 hPa (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#F4\">Fig. 4A<\/a>&nbsp;and fig. S8A), which leads to a positive 200-hPa geopotential height (Z200) anomaly (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#F4\">Fig. 4B<\/a>&nbsp;and fig. S8B) and a negative sea level pressure (SLP) anomaly over the BOS (mainly the Sea of Okhotsk) (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#F4\">Fig. 4C<\/a>) and thus ascending anomalies there (fig. S8C). The concurring anomalous divergence in the upper troposphere over most of the BOS region can locally generate a negative Rossby wave source (RWS) through the vortex squeezing (see Materials and Methods and fig. S9) and, thus, an anomalous Rossby wave propagating equatorward into the tropical Pacific. Concurrently, decreased air temperature (<em>T<\/em>) and Z200 with increased SLP are seen over a southwest-northeast zone just south of the BOS, while a negative SLP anomaly is located along ~20\u00b0N with weak positive Z200 anomaly (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#F4\">Fig. 4, A to C<\/a>), featuring a northward tilted structure of such an anomalous Rossby wave (fig. S8B). Note that the increased SLP over the midlatitude North Pacific due to sea ice\u2013air interactions is nearly opposite to that induced by Arctic sea ice loss (i.e., a negative SLP anomaly) noticed previously (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#core-R24\"><em>24<\/em><\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#core-R25\"><em>25<\/em><\/a>), implying their competing effects on the tropical Pacific mean state and, thus, ENSO variability. The above&nbsp;<em>T<\/em>&nbsp;changes over the North Pacific north of ~20\u00b0N reduce the south-north&nbsp;<em>T<\/em>&nbsp;gradient and thus upper-level zonal wind along 40\u00b0N (fig. S8D), which decelerates the southern part of the mean westerly jet to facilitate the southeastward propagation of the anomalous Rossby wave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Along with increased SLP over the midlatitude North Pacific, the anticyclonic surface circulation anomaly extends from the east of Japan to the west of North America (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#F4\">Fig. 4C<\/a>). On one hand, the southwesterly wind anomaly on its northwestern side can transport more warm and moist airmass poleward (fig. S7E) to further warm the SSTs in the BOS region through increased downward LW radiation (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#F3\">Fig. 3I<\/a>); on the other hand, the northeasterly wind anomaly in the south would strengthen the prevailing trade wind along ~30\u00b0N over the North Pacific (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#F4\">Fig. 4C<\/a>), thus causing cooler SSTs there (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#F4\">Fig. 4D<\/a>) via the WES feedback (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#core-R34\"><em>34<\/em><\/a>). Meanwhile, anomalous cyclonic circulation is found in the western tropical Pacific along ~20\u00b0N together with a negative SLP anomaly there (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#F4\">Fig. 4C<\/a>) and anomalous subsidence to its south near ~10\u00b0N (fig. S8C). Thus, the anomalous southwesterly wind along its southern flank (north of 10\u00b0N) could weaken the prevailing northeasterlies (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#F4\">Fig. 4C<\/a>), while the anomalous northerly wind to its south (south of 10\u00b0N) decreases the mean cross-equator southerlies in the western equatorial Pacific (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#F2\">Fig. 2A<\/a>). These mean surface wind changes ultimately lead to warmer mean SSTs near the warm pool (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#F4\">Fig. 4D<\/a>) via the WES feedback. This increases zonal SST gradients that strengthen mean trade winds over the central-eastern tropical Pacific to induce colder SSTs in the east (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#F2\">Fig. 2A<\/a>), which would, in turn, further intensify surface winds and thus form a positive feedback loop (i.e., the Bjerknes feedback). Such an SST response pattern over the tropical and North Pacific resembles that induced by winter SIC anomalies over the Sea of Okhotsk through increased surface heat fluxes (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#core-R36\"><em>36<\/em><\/a>), although they appear in different seasons. In addition, the concurring negative anomalies of wind stress curl (fig. S4E) also deepen the thermocline over the central tropical Pacific via Ekman pumping. These mean changes in equatorial trade winds and thermocline depth can substantially weaken ENSO amplitude through dampening the TH and ZA feedbacks as discussed above. The southeastward propagating anomalous Rossby wave (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#F4\">Fig. 4B<\/a>), excited by anomalous heating over the BOS and northern North Pacific due to sea ice\u2013air interactions, serves as a key bridge that connects the Arctic and tropical Pacific mean-state changes.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990\">https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Discussion (conclusion)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">DISCUSSION<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In summary, our model experiments reveal that Arctic sea ice\u2013air interactions can remotely weaken ENSO\u2019s amplitudes and associated variability in other fields in the tropical Pacific by 12 to 17% by modulating the tropical Pacific mean state. The main processes, summarized in\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#F6\">Fig. 6<\/a>, are as follows. During JJAS, sea ice\u2013air interactions would lead to enhanced surface SW absorption, warmer SST, and increased upward energy fluxes over the northern North Pacific (mainly the BOS region) near the MIZ, causing anomalous warming from the surface to around 200 hPa there. Such a heating anomaly forces an anomalous cyclone at the surface over the BOS and an anticyclonic anomaly in the upper troposphere locally; it also excites an anomalous atmospheric Rossby wave propagating equatorward into the tropical Pacific. The Rossby wave creates alternating SLP patterns toward the tropical Pacific, with an anticyclonic response in the midlatitude North Pacific and a cyclonic anomaly around 20\u00b0N in the western-central Pacific. The anomalous southwesterly winds over the western-central tropical Pacific act to weaken the mean northeasterly trades, leading to warmer SSTs in the western-central tropical Pacific via the WES feedback and, thus, the enlarged zonal SST gradients over the tropical Pacific. This causes stronger mean trade winds and colder SSTs in the CEP through both Bjerknes and WES feedbacks, together with a slightly deeper mean thermocline in the western-central tropical Pacific by an accumulation of warm waters and Ekman pumping there. As a result, the ENSO amplitude is dampened because of the weakened TH feedback by the deeper mean thermocline and the weakened ZA feedback by the enlarged zonal SST gradient under stronger mean trade winds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990\">https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"720\" height=\"393\" data-attachment-id=\"317405\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=317405\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-151.png?fit=720%2C393&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"720,393\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-151\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-151.png?fit=720%2C393&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-151.png?resize=720%2C393&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-317405\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-151.png?w=720&amp;ssl=1 720w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-151.png?resize=300%2C164&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Fig. 6. Schematic diagram for the Arctic\u2013to\u2013tropical Pacific teleconnection during JJAS.<br>The longitude-latitude and longitude-depth panels are the same as\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#F4\">Figs. 4D<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#F2\">2C<\/a>, respectively. The key processes shown here include the following: (1) Sea ice\u2013air interactions increase surface SW absorption over the northern North Pacific near the MIZ (indicated by dashed lines), but with little SW changes over the central Arctic due to the damping effect of increased low clouds there, leading to strong warming confined to the northern North Pacific (mainly the BOS region); (2) the resultant anomalous atmospheric heating over the BOS excites an anomalous Rossby wave propagating equatorward (gray curve arrows) into the tropical Pacific, with an anticyclone response (labeled as A) over the northern North Pacific and a cyclonic response (labeled as C) over the subtropical Pacific in the upper troposphere (colored solid circles), and the corresponding circulation response at the surface (black dashed circles) is nearly the opposite to that at 200 hPa; (3) the associated low-level southwesterly wind anomaly (solid black arrows between 10\u00b0 and 20\u00b0N) weakens the subtropical mean northeasterly trades and leads to warmer SSTs over the western tropical Pacific and thus increased zonal SST gradients in the equatorial Pacific; (4) the resultant stronger mean trade winds (solid black arrows along the equator) cause colder SSTs in the eastern tropical Pacific that further enlarge zonal SST gradients and thus weaken the ZA feedback; (5) the thermocline over the central-western tropical Pacific is deepened because of the accumulation of warm waters under stronger mean trade winds and the negative anomalies of surface wind stress curl (black circular) through Ekman downwelling (dashed black downward arrows) and thus weakened TH feedback. These processes ultimately weaken ENSO activity.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The discussion continues with the following paragraph,&nbsp;<em>emphasis mine.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Historical changes from P1 (with weak ENSO, strong SIC variations, and likely strong sea ice\u2013air interactions) to P2 (with strong ENSO, weak SIC variations, and likely weak sea ice\u2013air interactions) based on observational and reanalysis data are qualitatively consistent with the model results, such as the surface heat flux\u2013induced teleconnection between the Arctic and tropical Pacific. The historical changes between P1 and P2 appear to be linked to changes in the strength of the sea ice\u2013air interactions over the Pacific sector of the Arctic. Compared with P1, ENSO activity has already strengthened in P2 when the SIC variations become much weaker during JJAS (implying a weakening of the sea ice\u2013air interactions) (fig. S5)<strong><em>, although many other factors may also play a role in the real world.<\/em><\/strong>&nbsp;Note that the SIC variations have also become relatively stronger after the 1990s (but much weaker than P1 due to large sea ice loss). This implies that the associated stronger sea ice\u2013air interactions might lead to weakened ENSO amplitude and increased CP El Ni\u00f1o occurrence in recent decades (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#core-R24\"><em>24<\/em><\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990#core-R31\"><em>31<\/em><\/a>), which is qualitatively consistent with our model results. However, this observed multidecadal relationship of the SIC variations with ENSO activity and diversity needs further investigation in multiple coupled climate models.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>When I read this paper, especially paragraphs such as the above, all I could think of was this.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"720\" height=\"360\" data-attachment-id=\"317407\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=317407\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-152.png?fit=720%2C360&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"720,360\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-152\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-152.png?fit=720%2C360&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-152.png?resize=720%2C360&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-317407\" style=\"width:760px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-152.png?w=720&amp;ssl=1 720w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/image-152.png?resize=300%2C150&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>For brave souls who wish to dive in further,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk3990\">the paper can be found here.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This genre of paper is interesting. Underlying the research is the assumption that climate model simulations are data or reality. The researchers then perform an in-depth analysis of these PlayStation worlds as if the simulations represented physical reality.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":317409,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691828091,691819287,691828090],"class_list":{"0":"post-317402","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-model-simulations","9":"tag-el-nino-2","10":"tag-southern-oscillation","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00nesdis-el-nino.png?fit=1800%2C900&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1kzo","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":304416,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=304416","url_meta":{"origin":317402,"position":0},"title":"Top Climate Model Improved to Show ENSO\u00a0Skill","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Previous posts (linked at end) discuss how the\u00a0climate model from RAS (Russian Academy of Science)\u00a0has evolved through several versions. The interest arose because of its\u00a0greater ability to replicate the past temperature history.\u00a0","rel":"","context":"In \"climate model\"","block_context":{"text":"climate model","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-model"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0ENSO_schematic_large.png?fit=1200%2C807&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0ENSO_schematic_large.png?fit=1200%2C807&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0ENSO_schematic_large.png?fit=1200%2C807&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0ENSO_schematic_large.png?fit=1200%2C807&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0ENSO_schematic_large.png?fit=1200%2C807&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":346592,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=346592","url_meta":{"origin":317402,"position":1},"title":"True Skepticism in the Face of a 2023 Global Warming Spike Study","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/10\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In recent days, climate skeptics have found support for their doubts about the so-called climate crisis. A recent study, The 2023 Global Warming Spike Was Driven by the El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (Raghuraman et al., 2024), attributed the significant temperature spike in 2023 to natural causes, particularly the El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate models\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0_yA0bKsZexKHmhaw0.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0_yA0bKsZexKHmhaw0.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0_yA0bKsZexKHmhaw0.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0_yA0bKsZexKHmhaw0.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0_yA0bKsZexKHmhaw0.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":390531,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=390531","url_meta":{"origin":317402,"position":2},"title":"Another Day, Another Model of Future Climate Doom","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/07\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"From the\u00a0Institute for Basic Science\u00a0and the \u201cwe\u2019re all gonna die\u201d department comes Episode #2971 of model madness via press release: Earth\u2019s future climate at 9 km worldwide resolution","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQP9h5A5NF13ZX6iKfnVPvvzigXP_SLH6GmyKvGFLmGaBisvszl3ZOy3QN6veCcJBmPU10K7GzdumN5EKLhOdy8jKauxYjOz0VFLOPQXpDUB_luYd28rDr1XiHIJ94k16gGpa8-9aSXKq-F13Q7S9ibriFY1qA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQP9h5A5NF13ZX6iKfnVPvvzigXP_SLH6GmyKvGFLmGaBisvszl3ZOy3QN6veCcJBmPU10K7GzdumN5EKLhOdy8jKauxYjOz0VFLOPQXpDUB_luYd28rDr1XiHIJ94k16gGpa8-9aSXKq-F13Q7S9ibriFY1qA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQP9h5A5NF13ZX6iKfnVPvvzigXP_SLH6GmyKvGFLmGaBisvszl3ZOy3QN6veCcJBmPU10K7GzdumN5EKLhOdy8jKauxYjOz0VFLOPQXpDUB_luYd28rDr1XiHIJ94k16gGpa8-9aSXKq-F13Q7S9ibriFY1qA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQP9h5A5NF13ZX6iKfnVPvvzigXP_SLH6GmyKvGFLmGaBisvszl3ZOy3QN6veCcJBmPU10K7GzdumN5EKLhOdy8jKauxYjOz0VFLOPQXpDUB_luYd28rDr1XiHIJ94k16gGpa8-9aSXKq-F13Q7S9ibriFY1qA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQP9h5A5NF13ZX6iKfnVPvvzigXP_SLH6GmyKvGFLmGaBisvszl3ZOy3QN6veCcJBmPU10K7GzdumN5EKLhOdy8jKauxYjOz0VFLOPQXpDUB_luYd28rDr1XiHIJ94k16gGpa8-9aSXKq-F13Q7S9ibriFY1qA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":332239,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=332239","url_meta":{"origin":317402,"position":3},"title":"Climatists Deny Natural Warming\u00a0Factors","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/06\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"After a recent contretemps at Climate Etc. with CO2 warmists, I was again reminded how insistent are zero carbon zealots to deny multiple natural climate factors, in order to attribute all modern warming to humans burning hydrocarbons. A large part of this blindness comes from constraints dictated by the IPCC\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming)\"","block_context":{"text":"AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=agw-anthropogenic-global-warming"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0wp4555644.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0wp4555644.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0wp4555644.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0wp4555644.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0wp4555644.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":339440,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=339440","url_meta":{"origin":317402,"position":4},"title":"Pubpeer Comment on our recent paper by the anonymous \u201cPhoma destructiva\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"An anonymous reviewer has written a critique of our recent paper \u201cCarbon Dioxide and a Warming Climate are not problems,\u201d published online May 29, 2024, in The American Journal of Economics and Sociology. In the introduction to his critique, Phoma destructiva writes: \u201cthe authors and their cited sources likely underestimated\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO2)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO2)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01394756389000-global-warming.webp?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01394756389000-global-warming.webp?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01394756389000-global-warming.webp?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01394756389000-global-warming.webp?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01394756389000-global-warming.webp?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01394756389000-global-warming.webp?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":369333,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=369333","url_meta":{"origin":317402,"position":5},"title":"Medieval Warm Period Undeniable, pronounced in Antarctica and Poland, 2 New Studies Show","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/03\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Medieval Warm Period, the natural warm phase between 700 and 1300 AD, cannot be reproduced climate models because the simulations react primarily to CO2. Back then CO2 was not a factor because its concentration level in the atmosphere was pretty much constant. That\u2019s why people would rather keep the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctica\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctica","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctica"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Emperor-Penguins-with-chick.jpg?fit=1200%2C840&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Emperor-Penguins-with-chick.jpg?fit=1200%2C840&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Emperor-Penguins-with-chick.jpg?fit=1200%2C840&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Emperor-Penguins-with-chick.jpg?fit=1200%2C840&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Emperor-Penguins-with-chick.jpg?fit=1200%2C840&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/317402","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=317402"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/317402\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":317410,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/317402\/revisions\/317410"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/317409"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=317402"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=317402"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=317402"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}