{"id":316984,"date":"2024-04-06T14:44:54","date_gmt":"2024-04-06T12:44:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=316984"},"modified":"2024-04-06T14:44:57","modified_gmt":"2024-04-06T12:44:57","slug":"no-savannah-morning-news-a-warm-spring-is-no-indication-of-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=316984","title":{"rendered":"No, Savannah Morning News, a Warm Spring is No Indication of Climate Change"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

A story published by John Deem<\/a> of the Savannah Morning News<\/em> (SMN) claims that a warmer than normal spring that is expected this year is \u201cunder climate change\u2019s influence.\u201d This is false. SMN is conflating short-term weather patterns with long-term climate change and an examination of real-world data does not support their conclusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The article comma titled \u2018Ma Nature\u2019 expected to nurture warm spring in Savannah under climate change\u2019s influence<\/a>, was published on the website of the newspaper on April 2nd 2024.  The article makes this claim:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spring is likely to be warmer than usual in Savannah and across Georgia this year, according to the latest long-term forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s Climate Prediction Center<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s nothing new. Thanks to warming fueled primarily by heat-trapping pollution from the burning of fossil fuels, average spring temperatures have climbed considerably locally and over much of the Southeast over the past 50 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although it is unclear in the article which long-term forecast from the\u00a0Climate Prediction Center<\/a>\u00a0SMN is referencing, this Seasonal Temperature Outlook in Figure 1 below is the most likely candidate:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 1: Spring season temperature outlook for the United States. Source: Climate Prediction Center
The key on Figure 1 shows co<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The key on Figure 1 shows colors that match different regions, for Savannah GA, the orange color relates to a \u201cleaning above\u201d 40 to 50% probability of a warmer than normal spring. That is hardly certain. Interestingly, the one-month outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center shows equal chances for Georgia and much of the southeastern United States. (See figure below) Basically, that prediction is no better than a coin flip; it could be warmer, or it could be cooler. With such a lack of precision over the shorter term of one month, certainly a three-month forecast is not likely to be any better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SMN is making their claim of a warmer spring driven by \u201cclimate change\u2019s influence\u201d based on a forecast with a high level of uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 2: One month ahead temperature outlook for the United States. Source: Climate Prediction Center<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

A short-term change in weather patterns over a few months from year to year is not the same as long-term climate change. It is well established in the scientific community that at least 30 years of changing weather must be recorded<\/a> in order for it to become a climate pattern. To create a climate record, 30 years of weather data is averaged to create a \u201cnormal\u201d climate expectation for a location or region. Three months in one spring season is woefully short of that requirement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than that, SMN failed to do any detailed analysis of historical temperatures. According to\u00a0State Climate Summaries 2022<\/a>\u00a0from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) temperatures were actually far warmer in the past than they are today as seen in Figure 3:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 3: Observed (a) annual number of extremely hot days (maximum temperature of 100\u00b0F or higher), source: NOAA.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The observed number of hot days have fallen in Georgia since the peak in the early 20th<\/sup> century. Looking at the written summary on temperatures, NOAA has this to say: \u201cTemperatures in Georgia have risen by 0.8\u00b0F, about half of the warming for the contiguous United States, since the beginning of the 20th century.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clearly Georgia is falling behind when it comes to warmer temperatures. If in fact \u201cclimate change\u2019s influence\u201d was driving warmer temperatures as SMN claims, we would see it in the data but the exact opposite is true.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, according to World Population Review<\/a>, the city of Savannah has seen explosive population growth since the beginning of the 20th century. Clearly people seem to prefer the climate of Savannah with obviously little concern over climate change driven temperature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SMN editors and writer John Deem clearly didn\u2019t do their homework when it came to making a claims of  \u201cclimate change\u2019s influence\u201d for this spring that according to forecast may or may not come to pass. It is just one more sad example of the media spinning a climate change narrative instead of paying attention to actual data and the relevant skill of a forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A story published by\u00a0John Deem\u00a0of the\u00a0Savannah Morning News\u00a0(SMN) claims that a warmer than normal spring that is expected this year is \u201cunder climate change\u2019s influence.\u201d This is false. SMN is conflating short-term weather patterns with long-term climate change and an examination of real-world data does not support their conclusion.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":316993,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691819743,691828047,691828045,691828046],"class_list":["post-316984","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-propaganda","tag-john-deem","tag-savannah-morning-news","tag-warm-spring","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0wp8934011.jpg?fit=1600%2C1200&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1ksE","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":283312,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=283312","url_meta":{"origin":316984,"position":0},"title":"Climate Soothsayers: Why your hay fever is a \u201csign\u201d you should vote for a carbon tax","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/14\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"More climate change junk science and climate propaganda for keeping believers in mass hypnosis. 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