{"id":315175,"date":"2024-03-30T21:07:14","date_gmt":"2024-03-30T20:07:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=315175"},"modified":"2024-03-30T21:07:16","modified_gmt":"2024-03-30T20:07:16","slug":"first-look-at-the-weather-for-the-april-8-solar-eclipse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=315175","title":{"rendered":"First Look at the Weather for the April 8 Solar Eclipse"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Cliff Mass Weather Blog<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cliff Mass<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have gotten a lot of inquiries about the weather on April 8, the day of the total solar eclipse of the sun over the eastern half of the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our operational forecast models reach that far in time and have for a few days.  But considering the uncertainty at such a long projection, I have refrained from commenting until now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The model solutions are starting to settle down and I have increasing confidence that I can provide useful information.  So let me do the first of several updates on the weather associated with the event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The area of totality will extend from Texas to Ohio to northern Maine (see below).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Totality will occur at roughly 1800 UTC (11 AM PDT) for most of the path (earlier to the southwest, later to the northeast).\u00a0 \u00a0Here in Seattle, only about 20% of the sun will be covered (see below).\u00a0 You would hardly notice this, even if the skies were clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Forecast Situation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Below is the forecast 700-300 hPa (10,000-30,000 ft) relative humidity, a good measure of cloud cover, at 1800 UTC 8 April based on the U.S. GFS model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Portions of southwest Texas might have a good view, but I worry about viewing conditions over much of the Midwest.\u00a0 Some openings in Ohio and northern Maine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But at this projection (270 hours), there is still substantial uncertainty.<\/strong>   Only when we get within roughly 5 days (120 hr) will confidence be relatively high in the forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To illustrate the uncertainty, let me show you are series of forecasts for the above humidity field for four different forecast projections, but verifying at the same time (1800 UTC 8 April).  Specifically, you are viewing an animation of 288, 282, 276, and 270-hour forecasts of sea level pressure (solid lines) and the moisture field.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

All have some kind of low-pressure system and a plume of clouds in the middle part of the country and it appears the solutions are converging.  But there are significant changes between the forecasts.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Seattle, the variations are quite large.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"\/<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

An animation of the precipitation forecasts valid for the same eclipse time is shown below.   Enough precipitation to get a Midwest eclipse watcher nervous. And not promising for western Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"\/<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Another approach for such a long-term forecast is to look at the forecasts of ensembles of many forecasts.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Below is the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) prediction of clouds over Dallas\/Fort Worth Texas over time.  I put a red arrow at the time of the eclipse.  Remember:  an ensemble forecast shows the results of many different forecasts all valid at a certain time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

10 indicates total cloud cover.  The horizontal line shows the median cloud cover for that location and the yellow box around the medium shows the range of 50% of the ensemble forecast members. (remember that the median is in the middle of a distribution of many forecasts, as many above as below).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0Lots of clouds and lots of uncertainty at that location.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Anyway, if you are planning to go to the eclipse, don’t expect perfect conditions and be prepared to move, depending on the closer-in forecasts.\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I have gotten a lot of inquiries about the weather on April 8, the day of the total solar eclipse of the sun over the eastern half of the U.S.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":315181,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691827945,691818315],"class_list":{"0":"post-315175","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-the-weather","9":"tag-total-solar-eclipse","11":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0Screenshot-2024-03-28-at-2.46.01%E2%80%AFPM.png?fit=1600%2C1095&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1jZt","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":315872,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=315872","url_meta":{"origin":315175,"position":0},"title":"New Research Finds that Solar Eclipses are Harder to See Due to Global Warming","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/04\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Interestingly it turns out that\u00a0such eclipse-viewing problems are increasing\u00a0as the earth warms up due to increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.","rel":"","context":"In \"Clouds\"","block_context":{"text":"Clouds","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=clouds"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00istock-508348720.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00istock-508348720.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00istock-508348720.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00istock-508348720.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00istock-508348720.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":281840,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=281840","url_meta":{"origin":315175,"position":1},"title":"To study atmosphere, NASA rockets will fly into October eclipse’s shadow","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From Phys.org By Miles Hatfield,\u00a0NASA This map details the path the Moon\u2019s shadow will take as it crosses the contiguous U.S. during the\u00a0annular solar eclipse on Oct. 14, 2023, and\u00a0total solar eclipse on April 8, 2024. Credit: NASA\/Scientific Visualization Studio\/Michala Garrison; eclipse calculations by Ernie Wright A NASA sounding rocket\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"APEP team\"","block_context":{"text":"APEP team","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=apep-team"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-57.png?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-57.png?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-57.png?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-57.png?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":252461,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252461","url_meta":{"origin":315175,"position":2},"title":"The Next Great Total Solar Eclipse on US Soil is Now Just Under a Year Away\u2026Monday, April 8th, 2024","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Total solar eclipses occur somewhere on Earth every year or so, but generally cast their shadows over oceans or remote land masses.\u00a0","rel":"","context":"In \"Moon covers the Sun\u2019s bright face\"","block_context":{"text":"Moon covers the Sun\u2019s bright face","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=moon-covers-the-suns-bright-face"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00Great-Total-Solar-Eclipse.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00Great-Total-Solar-Eclipse.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00Great-Total-Solar-Eclipse.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00Great-Total-Solar-Eclipse.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00Great-Total-Solar-Eclipse.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":282235,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282235","url_meta":{"origin":315175,"position":3},"title":"The Next Great Total Solar Eclipse On US Soil Is Now Just About Six Months Away\u2026Monday, April 8th, 2024","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From Watts Up With That? [note from Charles. Anthony and I trekked to Central Oregon to view the 2017 Solar Eclipse,\u00a0chronicled in this post] Paul Dorian This map shows the 20-year (2000-2020) \u201cmedian cloud fraction\u201d in the month of April at approximately 1:30 pm local time as measured from NASA\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"2024\"","block_context":{"text":"2024","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2024"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0diamond-ring-eclipse-anthinywatts-8-21-17.webp?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0diamond-ring-eclipse-anthinywatts-8-21-17.webp?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0diamond-ring-eclipse-anthinywatts-8-21-17.webp?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0diamond-ring-eclipse-anthinywatts-8-21-17.webp?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0diamond-ring-eclipse-anthinywatts-8-21-17.webp?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":306593,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=306593","url_meta":{"origin":315175,"position":4},"title":"The 30-Day Countdown Begins on Friday\u2026The Next Great Total Solar Eclipse on US Soil\u2026April 8th, 2024","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In August of 2017 America went crazy for the first coast-to-coast total solar eclipse on US soil since 1918 and it provided a great opportunity for scientists and all sky watchers.","rel":"","context":"In \"The Great American Eclipse\"","block_context":{"text":"The Great American Eclipse","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=the-great-american-eclipse"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00Solar-Eclipse-Diamond-Ring.jpg?fit=1200%2C898&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00Solar-Eclipse-Diamond-Ring.jpg?fit=1200%2C898&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00Solar-Eclipse-Diamond-Ring.jpg?fit=1200%2C898&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00Solar-Eclipse-Diamond-Ring.jpg?fit=1200%2C898&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00Solar-Eclipse-Diamond-Ring.jpg?fit=1200%2C898&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":313639,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=313639","url_meta":{"origin":315175,"position":5},"title":"Prepare for Eclipse Viewing with Live Coronal Prediction","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"This is our latest prediction of the solar corona for the April 8, 2024 total solar eclipse. The above images show two versions of the predicted white light brightness in the corona at totality; the left is with solar north up, and the right is for Dallas, Texas. Click on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Coronal Prediction\"","block_context":{"text":"Coronal Prediction","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=coronal-prediction"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00Screenshot-2024-03-27-201619.png?fit=1200%2C518&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00Screenshot-2024-03-27-201619.png?fit=1200%2C518&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00Screenshot-2024-03-27-201619.png?fit=1200%2C518&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00Screenshot-2024-03-27-201619.png?fit=1200%2C518&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00Screenshot-2024-03-27-201619.png?fit=1200%2C518&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/315175","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=315175"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/315175\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":315186,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/315175\/revisions\/315186"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/315181"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=315175"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=315175"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=315175"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}