{"id":313481,"date":"2024-03-27T14:41:23","date_gmt":"2024-03-27T13:41:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=313481"},"modified":"2024-03-27T14:41:26","modified_gmt":"2024-03-27T13:41:26","slug":"artificial-intelligence-and-weather-forecastinga-quiet-revolution-is-taking-place-in-numerical-weather-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=313481","title":{"rendered":"Artificial intelligence and weather forecasting\u2026a quiet revolution is taking place in numerical weather prediction"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Paul Dorian<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Surface forecast map for next Monday, April 1st, made by the 00Z \u201cArtificial intelligence\u201d version of the Euro model; Map courtesy ECMWF, tropicaltidbits.com<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Overview<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was just a matter of time\u2026artificial intelligence (AI) has hit the numerical weather prediction world with a strong emphasis on \u201cpattern recognition\u201d and there is no telling where this will lead in the world of weather forecasting. Numerical weather prediction is well suited for AI as \u2013 in its current form \u2013 it requires a tremendous amount of data crunching and super computing power to resolve the physical laws of fluid dynamics to produce weather conditions in the future. One of the most notable AI advances in recent years has come with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts which is generating experimental AI forecasts that are made available to the public.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Surface forecast map for next Monday, April 1st, made by the 00Z \u201cconventional\u201d version of the Euro model; Map courtesy ECMWF, tropicaltidbits.com<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Details<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weather forecasts have improved in accuracy over the years with today\u2019s 6-day<\/em> forecasts about as good as the 3-day<\/em> forecast from 30 years ago. This improvement in overall accuracy has come about for numerous reasons one of which has to do with the much better computing power in today\u2019s world compared to three decades ago. Artificial intelligence is now spurring a new revolution in numerical weather prediction that many believe will produce model-based weather forecasts as good or even better than the best traditional models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is known for generating what is considered to be one of the top \u201ctraditional\u201d computer forecast models in the world known to most as the \u201cEuro\u201d. In the fall of 2023, this agency began to generate its own experimental AI model-based forecasts known officially as the \u201cECMWF-AIFS\u201d where AIFS is an acronym for \u201cArtificial Intelligence Forecasting System\u201d. This experimental forecast model, based on ECMWF initial conditions, has been made available in an alpha version to the general public for free and can be found at their own web site\u00a0here<\/a>. The resolution of the ECMWF-AIFS model is approximately one degree (111 km) with plans for this to be regularly increased in the future.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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850 mb temperature anomaly forecast map for next Monday, April 1st, made by the 00Z \u201cArtificial intelligence\u201d version of the Euro model; Map courtesy ECMWF, tropicaltidbits.com<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Traditional weather models start off by feeding a snapshot of current conditions, based on observations from satellites, weather stations and buoys, into a grid-like computer model that divides the atmosphere into millions of boxes. This snapshot is then run forward in time for each box by applying equations that are based on the physical laws of fluid dynamics and this requires great computational power. Indeed, this kind of data crunching requires supercomputers with 1 million processors and can take several hours to run\u2026usually four times a day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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850 mb temperature anomaly forecast map for next Monday, April 1st, made by the 00Z \u201cArtificial intelligence\u201d version of the Euro model; Map courtesy ECMWF, tropicaltidbits.com<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The new AI models play a role in weather prediction by simulating and analyzing past weather events, learning from historical data, and recognizing recurring weather patterns which enhances AI\u2019s ability to predict future weather conditions. In other words, AI skips the expense of solving the equations in favor of \u201cdeep learning\u201d after training on 40 years of ECMWF \u201creanalysis\u201d data (a combination of observations and short-term model forecasts that best represents past weather) (source<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Agency is not alone in producing AI forecast models as numerous tech giants are getting involved. In a paper published recently in Science<\/a>, Google introduced GraphCast<\/em> and claims it can make weather predictions more accurately (and faster) than the ECMWF High-Resolution Forecast (HRES) on 90% of its verification targets up to 10 days in advance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The advance in AI forecasting has been rapid during the past few years and one of the important next steps will be to produce ensemble<\/em> results, which helps to capture uncertainty by running a model multiple times with slightly differing input parameters to create a range of outcomes. While few expect traditional model forecasts to disappear anytime soon, AI will likely approach the point in the near-term where it can be a very useful complement. And when it comes to artificial intelligence, the bottom line is that there is really no telling where this will lead us over the next five or ten years; therefore, as is usually the case when it comes to weather forecasting, stay tuned. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Follow us on Facebook<\/a>, Twitter<\/a>, YouTube<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Weather forecasts have improved in accuracy over the years with today\u2019s\u00a06-day\u00a0forecasts about as good as the\u00a03-day\u00a0forecast from 30 years ago. This improvement in overall accuracy has come about for numerous reasons one of which has to do with the much better computing power in today\u2019s world compared to three decades ago. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":313490,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818711,691827889,691827888,691827887],"class_list":{"0":"post-313481","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-artificial-intelligence","9":"tag-european-centre-for-medium-range-weather-forecasts-ecmwf","10":"tag-model-based-weather-forecasts","11":"tag-weather-forecasting","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/01699876088723.jpeg?fit=1280%2C720&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1jy9","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":418046,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=418046","url_meta":{"origin":313481,"position":0},"title":"NOAA deploys new generation of AI-driven global weather models\u00a0","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/12\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA has launched a groundbreaking new suite of operational, artificial intelligence (AI)-driven global weather prediction models, marking a significant advancement in forecast speed, efficiency, and accuracy. The models will provide forecasters with faster delivery of more accurate guidance, while using a fraction of computational resources.","rel":"","context":"In \"AIGEFS (Artificial Intelligence Global Ensemble Forecast System)\"","block_context":{"text":"AIGEFS (Artificial Intelligence Global Ensemble Forecast System)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=aigefs-artificial-intelligence-global-ensemble-forecast-system"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQO6K46xuENC17Rg4g1OXBaskwTJhHjNzIc_o6kDDOH5agHhLlIimiDaZfe0QtUtLYUfdMLbR5Grvz3XLpNGqCmlZErCwBDd2s8vHCT3eRDiMKReMBPt6C9ulMIp7t_QYAMeaHYksOr7gp5ckHWUhjQzC174DA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQO6K46xuENC17Rg4g1OXBaskwTJhHjNzIc_o6kDDOH5agHhLlIimiDaZfe0QtUtLYUfdMLbR5Grvz3XLpNGqCmlZErCwBDd2s8vHCT3eRDiMKReMBPt6C9ulMIp7t_QYAMeaHYksOr7gp5ckHWUhjQzC174DA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQO6K46xuENC17Rg4g1OXBaskwTJhHjNzIc_o6kDDOH5agHhLlIimiDaZfe0QtUtLYUfdMLbR5Grvz3XLpNGqCmlZErCwBDd2s8vHCT3eRDiMKReMBPt6C9ulMIp7t_QYAMeaHYksOr7gp5ckHWUhjQzC174DA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQO6K46xuENC17Rg4g1OXBaskwTJhHjNzIc_o6kDDOH5agHhLlIimiDaZfe0QtUtLYUfdMLbR5Grvz3XLpNGqCmlZErCwBDd2s8vHCT3eRDiMKReMBPt6C9ulMIp7t_QYAMeaHYksOr7gp5ckHWUhjQzC174DA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQO6K46xuENC17Rg4g1OXBaskwTJhHjNzIc_o6kDDOH5agHhLlIimiDaZfe0QtUtLYUfdMLbR5Grvz3XLpNGqCmlZErCwBDd2s8vHCT3eRDiMKReMBPt6C9ulMIp7t_QYAMeaHYksOr7gp5ckHWUhjQzC174DA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":293843,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=293843","url_meta":{"origin":313481,"position":1},"title":"Cyclone Jasper & BOM Forecasting \u2013 Getting to the Truth","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"For sure, it is difficult to forecast weather and climate, but the skill of new systems based on artificial intelligence (AI) show great improvement, while the Australian Bureau of Meteorology remains wedded to its General Circulation Models.","rel":"","context":"In \"Artificial Intelligence (AI)\"","block_context":{"text":"Artificial Intelligence (AI)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=artificial-intelligence-ai"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0IMG_2292.jpeg?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0IMG_2292.jpeg?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0IMG_2292.jpeg?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0IMG_2292.jpeg?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0IMG_2292.jpeg?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":279071,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=279071","url_meta":{"origin":313481,"position":2},"title":"A Stunningly Good Hurricane Forecast","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/09\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Numerical weather prediction has improved dramatically over the past decades, providing potent warnings for extreme weather, such as hurricanes. 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November 2023 2\u00b0C downward correction Overall the NOAA had been forecasting a very mild winter for this year. But that forecast has been cooled down a bit, at least the early part of the winter. 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