{"id":313414,"date":"2024-03-27T08:29:43","date_gmt":"2024-03-27T07:29:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=313414"},"modified":"2024-03-27T08:29:46","modified_gmt":"2024-03-27T07:29:46","slug":"hunga-tonga-volcano-is-most-likely-cause-of-recent-warm-temperatures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=313414","title":{"rendered":"Hunga Tonga Volcano is \u201cMost Likely\u201d Cause of Recent Warm Temperatures"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Daily Sceptic<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

BY\u00a0CHRIS MORRISON<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The climate events of 2022-24 have been \u201ctruly extraordinary\u201d, notes Dr. Javier Vin\u00f3s writing in Dr. Judith Curry\u2019s online blog<\/a>. The rare convergence of a number of events \u201cthat may not be repeated for hundreds or even thousands of years\u201d represents a \u201cunique learning opportunity\u201d for climatologists. Interestingly, Dr. Vin\u00f3s downplays the roll of the current El Ni\u00f1o<\/em>. He says that the January 2022 Hunga Tonga underwater volcanic eruption, that boosted upper atmospheric water vapour by a remarkable 10%, is the most likely cause of the recent warming, which in turn led to an unprecedented three sudden stratospheric warming events. As the excess water leaves the atmosphere, observes Vin\u00f3s, it will induce a cooling effect at the surface potentially lowering temperatures for the next three to four years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Hunga Tonga eruption was an extraordinary event since it blasted an enormous amount of water vapour into the upper atmosphere without the usual volcanic ash. Dust particles spread throughout the atmosphere can have a temporary cooling effect, as in 1815 with the Mount Tambora explosion, but water vapour has warming properties and is considered the most potent \u2018greenhouse\u2019 gas. \u201cUnlike the lower troposphere, where the greenhouse effect is relatively saturated, the stratosphere, well above the Earth\u2019s average emission altitude (about 6 km), experiences a much more pronounced effect from the addition of water vapour,\u201d he observes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The unusual weather events over the last few months have been catnip to alarmists in the general ranks of media, science and politics. The strictures of following the Net Zero political agenda mean that large swathes of climate science are \u2018settled\u2019 and out of bounds for discussion. All the changes in the weather and climate are due to humans using hydrocarbons, state the authorities. The constant catastrophising of the recent weather has largely ignored natural variation, and so the heat transfers of El Ni\u00f1o<\/em> and the boosting of water vapour from Hunga Tonga are relegated to subsidiary footnotes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate scientists were initially shocked by the ferocity of the Hunga Tunga eruption and the huge plume of water that suddenly shot into the upper atmosphere. Within months a group of European scientists drew attention to the scale of the discharge. They concluded that the unique nature and magnitude<\/a> of the global stratospheric perturbation caused by the volcano \u201cranks it among the most remarkable climatic events in the modern observational era, with a range of potential long-lasting repercussions for stratospheric composition and climate\u201d. Since that date there does not appear to have been a great deal of debate about the subject published in the scientific press. The cynical might conclude  that there is not a big demand for anything that might dent all the recent weather propaganda helpfully propping up Net Zero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Never before have we witnessed an undersea volcanic eruption with a plume capable of reaching the stratosphere and depositing a large amount of vapourised water, states Dr. Vin\u00f3s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The above drawing shows the dramatic increase in water vapour since the start of 2022. It illustrates the movement of the volcanic water from the tropical regions to the mid and high latitudes where it will gradually leave the atmosphere in the coming years. Vin\u00f3s poses the question, why did it take so long to detect atmospheric changes, and he suggest the answers lie in very quick longitudinal spread but much slower travel though the latitudes. This would appear to be borne out in the differences shown in the above illustration between 2022 and 2023. In addition there are seasonal variations to be taken into account. The eruption of Tambora provides a precedent in that the famous \u2018year without a summer\u2019 occurred 12 months after the April 1815 eruption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking forward, Vin\u00f3s says we should see a reversing of all the warming caused by the Hunga Tonga volcano. Heat alarmists have made hay of late, with the Financial Times<\/em>\u2018s \u2018Editorial Board\u2019 recently pontificating that the climate threat \u201cis now moving into uncharted territory<\/a>\u201d. But other factors are looming that could start a period of significant cooling. These include the decline in solar activity after the maximum of Solar Cycle 25 and a future ocean current shift of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. \u201cThese are indeed interesting times in terms of climate dynamics,\u201d observes Vin\u00f3s. Meanwhile a lively scientific discussion is to be found under the article on Dr. Curry\u2019s site<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris Morrison is the<\/em> Daily Sceptic\u2019s Environment Editor.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The climate events of 2022-24 have been \u201ctruly extraordinary\u201d, notes Dr. Javier Vin\u00f3s writing in Dr. Judith Curry\u2019s\u00a0online blog. The rare convergence of a number of events \u201cthat may not be repeated for hundreds or even thousands of years\u201d represents a \u201cunique learning opportunity\u201d for climatologists.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":313419,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819134,691818200,691818514,691821327,691818154],"class_list":["post-313414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-alarmism","tag-el-nino","tag-extreme-weather","tag-hunga-tonga-hunga-haapai","tag-net-zero","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1440%2C811&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1jx4","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":365515,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=365515","url_meta":{"origin":313414,"position":0},"title":"EXCLUSIVE: Sensational Findings Point to Hunga Tonga Eruption as Prime Suspect Behind Recent Temperature Spike","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/09\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In January 2022, a massive underwater volcano called Hunga Tonga suddenly erupted and shot so much water into the upper atmosphere that levels in the stratosphere rose suddenly by at least 10%. It was a genuine one in 100, even 200-year event and was reasonably expected to produce temporary weather\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":269451,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=269451","url_meta":{"origin":313414,"position":1},"title":"The Tonga Underwater Volcano Eruption May Have Had a Larger Warming Effect Than Reported","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/25\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Initial scientific estimates were 50-million metric tons of water injected into the stratosphere by Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha\u2019apai submarine volcano.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0hunga-tonga-ha-apai-volcano-eruption-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0hunga-tonga-ha-apai-volcano-eruption-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0hunga-tonga-ha-apai-volcano-eruption-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0hunga-tonga-ha-apai-volcano-eruption-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0hunga-tonga-ha-apai-volcano-eruption-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":269225,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=269225","url_meta":{"origin":313414,"position":2},"title":"Ryan Maue on Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha\u2019apai Submarine Volcano.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/24\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s straightforward how to run a radiative transfer model to determine the impacts of adding 150M metric tons of water to the stratosphere. But, detailed climate model simulations are needed to disentangle the atmospheric circulation changes that lead to non-linear feedbacks. The climate is \u201cabnormal\u201d right now, aside from the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, 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