{"id":313057,"date":"2024-03-26T08:56:32","date_gmt":"2024-03-26T07:56:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=313057"},"modified":"2024-03-26T08:56:34","modified_gmt":"2024-03-26T07:56:34","slug":"behavioural-scientists-arent-just-wrong-about-how-to-win-over-electorates-to-crackpot-progressive-policies-their-evident-contempt-for-the-masses-has-contributed-to-the-global-populist-revolt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=313057","title":{"rendered":"Behavioural Scientists Aren\u2019t Just Wrong About How to Win Over Electorates to Crackpot Progressive Policies; Their Evident Contempt for the Masses Has Contributed to the Global Populist Revolt"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Daily Sceptic<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

BY\u00a0BEN PILE<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Nothing strikes as much fear through the establishment\u2019s fact-checkers and hate-vanquishers as the rise of \u2018populism\u2019. Democratic backlashes against dominant ideologies and policy agendas are the natural and inevitable reaction to the intransigence of those who advance them. These reactions, which look likely to sweep many populist parties to power in elections this year, are seen by incumbents as the re-emergence of \u2018dark historical forces\u2019, but our leaders have no other words for the challenges to their authority than \u2018far-Right\u2019. The reason they cannot grasp what\u2019s really going on \u2013 indeed, one of the causes of their unpopularity \u2013 is that they\u2019ve placed too much faith in what has turned out to be really bad science.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the narrative of anointed pundits, tractors on their way to Europe\u2019s capital cities and the EU Parliament are like so many Nazi tanks rolling across the continent. The EU Parliamentary election is at risk of a \u2018far-Right takeover<\/a>\u2019 as polling shows voters beginning to reject the liberal consensus. This paranoid fantasy is not wholly without a basis in fact \u2013 the benighted really are changing the political landscape. Following Giorgia Meloni\u2019s 2022 victory in Italy, Geert Wilders\u2019s PVV became the largest party in the Netherlands last year but has been unable to form a Government. Since 2020, AfD has doubled its polling to around 20%, pushing Germany\u2019s SPD and Greens into third and fourth places. The German Government is now contemplating banning the party, so bereft of ideas is it about how to counter its criticisms in the public square. France\u2019s longstanding spectre haunting global blobists, Marine Le Pen\u2019s party, would, according to recent polling<\/a>, win a majority of seats in the National Assembly if an election were held tomorrow. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the establishment view, science is at loggerheads with the populism now sweeping across Europe. But to pit science against ideology in this way is false. Science has been used to legitimise numerous contemporary political agendas, invoked in the same way that God used to be to legitimise a particular political platform. Most notably, \u2018climate science\u2019, which is invoked by increasingly remote elites struggling to overcome yawning democratic deficits claim that \u2018saving the planet\u2019 is in the best interests of their electorates. Yet, to those being forced to pay the price for these economically ruinous policies, it\u2019s obvious that the Net Zero agenda is, at root, an ideological crusade designed to advance the interests of wealthy elites. And many are now wondering if the \u2018climate change\u2019 we\u2019re constantly being warned about will be as devastating as the policies designed to mitigate its effect, which seem to require the suspension of democracy, the transformation of society and the draconian regulation of lifestyles insofar as they require energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As politicians and others have met resistance to their agendas based on \u2018unimpeachable science\u2019, they have sought an explanation. The answer they found is epitomised by a 2011 article by liberal science warrior Chris Mooney, who helpfully set out \u2018The Science of Why We Don\u2019t Believe Science<\/a>\u2019. Neuroscientists and social psychologists, explained Mooney, had identified differences in the structure of brains owned by liberals and conservatives, which made the latter more prone to \u2018motivated reasoning\u2019 and therefore to ideology, whereas liberals were biased only towards truth. This explained why Republicans were more sceptical of climate change then their Democrat counterparts who obediently recognised the authority of \u2018the scientific consensus\u2019. Mooney\u2019s essay, which followed his 2005 book, The Republican War on Science<\/em><\/a>, was itself worked into a book in 2012, The Republican Brain: The Science of Why They Deny Science \u2013 and Reality<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mooney\u2019s work, born in the pre-Obama era of \u2018muscular atheism\u2019 and a regrouping of Left-of-centre ideas around scientism, though largely inconsequential, marked the completion of cognitive and behavioural scientists\u2019 entry into the political sphere. Only somebody with insufficiently developed neural circuits \u2013 a.k.a. Republicans \u2013 could disagree with climate propaganda, or they were funded by Big Oil, or both. It didn\u2019t really matter, because Science had spoken. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Mooney\u2019s confidence was misplaced. Whereas the scientific consensus on climate change had been broadly (and falsely) reported as being as indubitable as \u2018basic physics\u2019, the new lab-coated recruits of this political, and increasingly cultural war, could not claim anything so tangible. First, studies confirmed that academic psychology was experiencing a \u2018replication crisis\u2019<\/a> \u2013 barely a third of published science in the field could be reproduced experimentally. Second, psychological science was revealed to be dominated by Left-wing scientists<\/a>, with measurable impacts on peer-review. Conservative scientists were less likely to be published. A soft science \u2013 and perhaps the softest science \u2013 was now being used to supposedly explain why more people didn\u2019t believe in hard science, although, to complicate things, the hard science wasn\u2019t that hard after all. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Britain, where politics was less polarised under a suffocating Blairism, this naked scientism had a much easier ride into the establishment. A consensus on climate change \u2013 and pretty much everything else \u2013 had formed in Westminster, excluding any inconvenient influences from politics. In a 2010 report<\/a>, jointly produced by the Cabinet Office and the Institute for Government, Cabinet Secretary, then Sir, now Lord Gus O\u2019Donnell, who had commissioned it, wrote in the foreword: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Many of the biggest policy challenges we are now facing\u2026 will only be resolved if we are successful in persuading people to change their behaviour, their lifestyles or their existing habits. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The report, citing \u201cmajor advances in understanding the influences on our behaviours\u201d argued that \u201cinfluencing behaviour is central to public policy\u201d, and that in tackling \u201ccrime, obesity or environmental sustainability, behavioural approaches offer a potentially powerful new set of tools\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there had been no development in the behavioural sciences \u2013 they remained mired in the depths of the replication crises and obvious ideological bias. The only change that occurred was a dim view of individuals\u2019 competences had developed and become fashionable within policy circles, displacing a view that had hitherto constrained technocratic paternalism. Barely a year following its publication, Cass Sunstein\u2019s 2008 book, Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth and Happiness<\/em><\/a> had become the British Establishment\u2019s operating manual. The Nudge Unit, properly known as the Behavioural Insights Team<\/a>, was born. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

After all, something had been lacking in public life since before even Blair\u2019s triumphant arrival at Downing Street and politicians struggled to put their finger on it. In the early days of New Labour, Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott declared that the state\u2019s performance would now be measured by a \u2018quality of life barometer<\/a>\u2019. Even the amount of birdsong \u2013 a metric of ecological sustainability and subjective wellbeing \u2013 would be measured. Sadly for Prescott, the plans for happiness were shelved in favour of a \u2018War on Terror\u2019, and so it was a touchy-feely David \u2018hug-a-husky\u2019 Cameron who finally seized the therapeutic initiative. He had convened a Quality of Life policy group<\/a> in 2007 to investigate the policies required to make us adjust our behaviour to make life better for everyone, e.g. use less fossil fuels. And having taken office in 2010, the nudgers were the very group to help him make the \u2018difficult\u2019 choices required to save the planet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coalition \u2018greenest Government ever\u2019 brought together the two opposition parties that had convinced themselves they were planet savers. But the strongest constituency in Britain (ever) had a very different idea about what was lacking in politics. Worse, the Leave vote having won, no less an earthquake in the form of Donald Trump sent a second panic through the anointed classes. How could the nudgers, either side of the Atlantic, have got it so wrong? In the wake of these catastrophes, psychologists set to work developing new hypotheses to explain the public\u2019s lack of gratitude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then, the most curious intervention from psychologists in the years between the Referendum and the Covid pandemic came from the green quarters. In 2018, an obscure 2016 paper<\/a> by clinical psychologist Margaret Klein Salamon came to the attention of climate protesters. The paper called for the creation of a \u201cclimate emergency movement\u201d, which would \u201clead the public into emergency mode\u201d. This \u201cmode is the mode of human psychological functioning that occurs when individuals or groups respond optimally to existential or moral emergencies\u201d, claimed the psychologist. Thus, having had the \u2018truth\u2019 of the \u2018climate emergency\u2019 explained to them, the public would rise up and force governments to act to save the planet. Klein-Salamon\u2019s hypothesis spawned Extinction Rebellion and its franchises, and Greta Thunberg\u2019s Schools Strike movement. But the public, in their millions, stayed at home. Rather than rising up, they became impatient with the failure to clear the mere dozens of protesters from the streets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A more successful intervention by social psychologists was the infamous survey which claimed that 97% of academic papers on climate change supported the consensus position. Cook et al.<\/em>\u2019s 2013 study<\/a> was routinely cited by Obama<\/a> as representing the \u201coverwhelming judgement of science\u201d. It\u2019s authors believed, like Klein-Salamon, that the public would be more receptive to the \u2018climate emergency\u2019 scaremongering if they knew it had the backing of most climate scientists \u2013 a contentious hypothesis of science communication known as the Gateway Belief Model<\/a>. \u201cAn accurate perception of the degree of scientific consensus is an essential element to public support for climate policy,\u201d explains the paper\u2019s introduction. The paper was not accurate<\/a>, but it created an article of faith around which its adherents could organise their arguments. It was political<\/em> communication, not science communication. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But how effective has this psychological \u2018science\u2019 been? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the Atlantic, polls suggest that voters will return Donald Trump to the Whitehouse<\/a> and terminate Justin Trudeau\u2019s hyper-woke regime<\/a>. Further to the south, the chainsaw-wielding libertarian Javier Milei won 56% of the popular vote in last year\u2019s presidential election in Argentina. One in three Europeans now vote for anti-establishment<\/a> parties, bleats the Guardian<\/em>. Its sister paper nervously awaits the results of 40 elections<\/a> around the planet that threaten to undermine the global order and all life on Earth. The Guardian<\/em>, again, uncritically reported the words of John Kerry<\/a>: \u201cThe populist backlash against Net Zero around the world is imperilling the fight against climate breakdown and must be countered urgently or we face planetary destruction \u2018beyond comprehension\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s beginning to look like the advice of behavioural \u2018scientists\u2019 about how to engage the public on Net Zero and other policies is a bit duff. Big promises are made by these academics about their ability to influence the public. But what are they really capable of achieving?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Extremely limited evidence underpins behavioural scientists\u2019 claims. The classic example of \u2018nudge\u2019, for example, is the discovery that the image of a fly painted onto a urinal helps men to take better aim, thereby leaving conveniences in better condition. Away from the toilet, psychologists discoveries are difficult to quantify in wider society. Some psychologists, observe their critics<\/a>, have used exotic and inappropriate statistical methods to report greater effects than can realistically be detected and expressed in conventional terms. Even in the lab, an attempt to quantify the Gateway Belief Model<\/a> found that consensus messaging yielded just a +1.7% change in support for climate policies. This result was later disputed by other researchers in the field, who conversely found \u2018reactance\u2019 in studies of consensus messaging<\/a> \u2013 an awareness of being manipulated, which increased rather than overcame polarisation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is a peculiar debate between academics on the green-Left about how best to manipulate climate-sceptic conservatives, rather than have it out with their enemy in the democratic open. And this cod-science\u2019s hostility to democracy and the hoi polloi<\/em>, which is conceived of as an unthinking, malleable mass, is reproduced in countless governments\u2019 policies and communications. Perhaps then, they have not merely failed to manufacture consent but have actually helped to turn electorates against their would-be masters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It would be too much to say that the global \u2018populist backlash\u2019 is wholly caused by green blob head-shrinking. But behaviourists\u2019 work seems more intended to legitimise intransigence and to justify draconian policy to politicians than to win over the public, whose reaction to it does not require a PhD to understand. Many millions are poured by governments into research which hasn\u2019t merely produced some \u2018reactance\u2019 but ultimately looks set to be near-terminal for the green cause, if progressive governments and politicians suffer the catastrophic defeats at the ballot box that many predict. If the intention was to win over the public, then the psychologists are even more out of touch than their clients. Academic psychology epitomises<\/em>, rather than rescues, elite intransigence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

People can be hectored and punished into lockdowns and forced by high prices to reduce their energy usage, and democracy can be slowly eroded. But academic psychologists have been unable to turn insight about men peeing on flies into preventing a pissed off public reciprocating official sentiments. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

When presented with actual choice, rather than one dictated by \u2018choice architects\u2019, the public do not choose either heat pumps or EVs, nor green technocratic globalists. Britain, for the moment, looks set to buck the trend sweeping the rest of the planet. But that\u2019s partly because successive Conservative governments have placed far too much faith in propaganda informed by behavioural science, just like their progressive counterparts abroad. There\u2019s a lesson here for Keir Starmer \u2013 but you can bet your bottom dollar he\u2019ll ignore it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Subscribe to Ben Pile\u2019s <\/em>The Net Zero Scandal Substack here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nothing strikes as much fear through the establishment\u2019s fact-checkers and hate-vanquishers as the rise of \u2018populism\u2019. Democratic backlashes against dominant ideologies and policy agendas are the natural and inevitable reaction to the intransigence of those who advance them.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":313062,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691827852,691818056,691818154,691827853,691827854,691827855,691827856],"class_list":{"0":"post-313057","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-behavioural-science","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-net-zero","11":"tag-populism","12":"tag-progressive-left","13":"tag-psychology","14":"tag-the-blob","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/020201203-JW-India-Farmers-Protest-4-scaled-1.jpg?fit=2560%2C1707&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1jrj","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":344415,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=344415","url_meta":{"origin":313057,"position":0},"title":"Academic Echo Chambers and the Myth of Behavioral Spillover in Climate Action","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/09\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The article\u00a0\u201cThe Chicken or the Egg? Spillover between Private Climate Action and Climate Policy Support\u201d\u00a0is a remarkable example of what can only be described as academic tail-chasing. 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