{"id":312704,"date":"2024-03-25T13:51:15","date_gmt":"2024-03-25T12:51:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=312704"},"modified":"2024-03-25T13:51:18","modified_gmt":"2024-03-25T12:51:18","slug":"ecb-potsdam-global-warming-will-drive-up-food-inflation-unless-farmers-adapt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=312704","title":{"rendered":"ECB \/ Potsdam: Global Warming will Drive Up Food Inflation, Unless Farmers Adapt"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essay by Eric Worrall<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u2026 in a low emission-scenario most impacts could be removed by adjustment once global temperatures stabilise \u2026\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Global warming and heat extremes to enhance inflationary pressures<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maximilian Kotz<\/a>, Friderike Kuik<\/a>, Eliza Lis<\/a> & Christiane Nickel<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate impacts on economic productivity indicate that climate change may threaten price stability. Here we apply fixed-effects regressions to over 27,000 observations of monthly consumer price indices worldwide to quantify the impacts of climate conditions on inflation. Higher temperatures increase food and headline inflation persistently over 12 months in both higher- and lower-income countries. Effects vary across seasons and regions depending on climatic norms, with further impacts from daily temperature variability and extreme precipitation. Evaluating these results under temperature increases projected for 2035 implies upwards pressures on food and headline inflation of 0.92-3.23 and 0.32-1.18 percentage-points per-year respectively on average globally (uncertainty range across emission scenarios, climate models and empirical specifications). Pressures are largest at low latitudes and show strong seasonality at high latitudes, peaking in summer. Finally,\u00a0the 2022 extreme summer heat increased food inflation in Europe by 0.43-0.93 percentage-points<\/strong>\u00a0which warming projected for 2035 would amplify by 30-50%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read more:\u00a0https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43247-023-01173-x<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

But farmers will apparently be able to adapt to these upheavals, \u201conce temperatures stabilise\u201d;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u2026 Although the empirical evidence indicates that adaptation to temperature shocks has been limited historically, we explore the potential of adaptation via adjustment to changing temperatures to reduce these future impacts. We do so by using empirical models in which temperature shocks are defined relative to a 30-year moving average rather than a constant baseline (Fig.\u00a0S6k\u2013t<\/a>), and by evaluating potential impacts using future temperatures defined in this way. This method indicates that adaptation via adjustment could substantially reduce future impacts (Supplementary Fig.\u00a0S14<\/a>). In particular,\u00a0in a low emission-scenario most impacts could be removed by adjustment once global temperatures stabilise<\/strong>\u00a0(Supplementary Fig.\u00a0S14c, d<\/a>). However,\u00a0in scenarios of un-mitigated warming, persistent impacts of considerable size remain<\/strong>\u00a0despite introducing adjustment of this type which has not been observed historically (Supplementary Fig.\u00a0S14<\/a>). \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read more:\u00a0same link as above<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The study authors also admit renewables may be increasing sensitivity to adverse weather.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u2026 Second, our empirical results refer predominantly to food and headline inflation, whereas we find a limited response of other price aggregates to weather changes. However, the strong response of electricity demand to temperature5<\/a>,6<\/a><\/sup> suggests that impacts on electricity prices are plausible. Indeed, we find that electricity prices show some consistent and persistent response to temperature increases (Supplementary Fig. S1k<\/a>), but with much larger uncertainty which precludes statements of significance at conventional levels. Lesser data availability for this more detailed price aggregate as well as complex and heterogeneous electricity price-setting practices may contribute to these large errors. However, as electricity supply is increasingly met with renewable sources, the price sensitivity to weather may change.<\/strong> A detailed analysis of electricity and other price aggregates may be a fruitful avenue of future work. \u2026Read more: same link as above<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Naturally the study makes heavy use of RCP 8.5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In my opinion, citing 2022 in Europe as an example of climate disruption caused food inflation is absurd. The problems being experienced by Europe are because of EU incompetence, not climate change.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Food inflation in Europe is a problem, because European<\/strong> farmers are under attack by radical greens<\/strong>. Ongoing demands farmers restrict use of fertiliser and chemicals, and insane attempts to cut the number of farmers, by coercing farmers to sign agreements to never farm again<\/a>, are probably not encouraging farmers to invest in upgrading their land. Dutch police shot live ammo at farmers protesting climate rules in 2022<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2022, in response to fertiliser shortages triggered by the war in Ukraine<\/strong>, there were crazy policy responses to the looming food shortages. The Scottish Agriculture Minister refused to release more land for agriculture<\/a> to help farmers maintain food supply. \u201cWe are still in a nature emergency that hasn\u2019t gone away\u2026 so it\u2019s a no<\/strong><\/em>\u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe experienced fertiliser shortages in 2022, because of their reliance on Ukraine and Russia.<\/strong> Ukraine and Russia are (were?) major suppliers of fertiliser, because they have lots of cheap energy. Producing fertiliser is energy intensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe\u2019s disastrous green energy policies have made it uneconomical to produce fertiliser in Europe, which made Europe vulnerable to the supply shock caused by the Ukraine war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition the EU operates a strict tariff regime, The European Common Agricultural Policy<\/a>, which taxes imports of food, and restricts Europe\u2019s ability to combat weather shocks by importing more food from outside the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m not disputing that in 2022 Europe suffered adverse weather conditions, but there were confounding factors. If Europe hadn\u2019t made such a mess of their agriculture, climate and energy policies, there would have been a lot less food inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for adaption, why would a regime of continuous warming be so different to stabilisation at a higher temperature?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Are the researchers suggesting farmers are too dumb to pick up the phone? Why would persistent impacts remain in scenarios of unmitigated warming? Can\u2019t farmers talk to their friends down South, to discover what crops and techniques work in warmer climates?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Farmers all over the world adapt the same crops to radically different temperatures. Subtropical Bundaberg can grow Maine potatoes at 25 degrees South of the Equator, a few hours drive from the 23.4 degree tropic of Capricorn<\/a>, the boundary of the Southern tropics, because they plant the potatoes in Fall, then harvest them in Spring before the Summer heat kills them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If temperature rose significantly every year, farmers would adapt by borrowing last year\u2019s planting practices from their friends 50-100 miles South, or switch to new crops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Potsdam researchers are wrong about farmers not adapting to a warmer climate. Canadian Geographic admitted in 2020 that global warming is opening millions of square kilometres of new agricultural land<\/a>. This is a continuation of the process which begun with the end of the Little Ice Age in 1850. Farmers will move into these lands the moment they become viable, unless agriculture hating politicians prevent them from doing so. Similar land openings would occur in Greenland and far Northern Europe, were global warming to continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for drought and flood,\u00a0there is no evidence extreme weather is getting worse<\/a>. Upgraded water infrastructure could capture and store floodwater, and transport water to where it was needed. If Western governments spent a fraction of the cash they squander on useless renewables, on building infrastructure which is actually needed, floods and droughts would be much less of a problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The problems being experienced by Europe are because of EU incompetence, not climate change.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":312707,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818153,691818561,691818583,691819570,691827832,691818087],"class_list":{"0":"post-312704","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-models","9":"tag-eu","10":"tag-europe","11":"tag-farmers","12":"tag-fertiliser","13":"tag-global-warming","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/DALL%C2%B7E-2023-10-03-15.37.15-chicken-and-the-sky.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1jlC","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":334169,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=334169","url_meta":{"origin":312704,"position":0},"title":"EU’s NetZero Gets “Greenlashed\u201d – A Reckoning in the Making \u2013 The Climate Realism Show\u00a0#115","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"22\/06\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Greenlash is defined as a backlash against clean energy transition. Others, such as farmers that have been straddled with restrictions, call it reverting to common sense. In the European Union there has been quite a protest movement pushing back and in Belgium farmers won that battle.","rel":"","context":"In \"Benny Peiser\"","block_context":{"text":"Benny Peiser","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=benny-peiser"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0Screenshot-2024-06-21-200254.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0Screenshot-2024-06-21-200254.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0Screenshot-2024-06-21-200254.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0Screenshot-2024-06-21-200254.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0Screenshot-2024-06-21-200254.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":288730,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=288730","url_meta":{"origin":312704,"position":1},"title":"Why the Dutch election result spells trouble for Europe\u2019s climate\u00a0efforts","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Netherlands has in recent years emerged as one of the most ambitious EU countries on climate change. That\u2019s likely to change under a coalition government involving the PVV. With the campaign dominated by immigration issues, voters might not have backed the PVV because of its anti-green stance | Carl\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/03755a0aa7572c6ef783f18dc19cf2e86.jpg?fit=1000%2C664&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/03755a0aa7572c6ef783f18dc19cf2e86.jpg?fit=1000%2C664&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/03755a0aa7572c6ef783f18dc19cf2e86.jpg?fit=1000%2C664&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/03755a0aa7572c6ef783f18dc19cf2e86.jpg?fit=1000%2C664&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":212857,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=212857","url_meta":{"origin":312704,"position":2},"title":"Wrong, Trade Finance Global, Weather, Not Climate Change, Is Impacting Key European Crops","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":". A single year of hot, dry weather conditions does not constitute proof of climate change, nor does a single year\u2019s crop decline. Weather and crop production are both notoriously fickle, as Mendes and TFG should know.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0sunflower-ga13833d89_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0sunflower-ga13833d89_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0sunflower-ga13833d89_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0sunflower-ga13833d89_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0sunflower-ga13833d89_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":367186,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=367186","url_meta":{"origin":312704,"position":3},"title":"Wrong, Politico, Climate Change Does Not Threaten the EU\u2019s Survival, But Climate Policy Does","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"22\/02\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent Politico article, \u201cClimate change threatens EU\u2019s survival, German security report warns,\u201d claims that \u201cglobal warming will exacerbate conflicts, hunger, and migration worldwide, with growing risks for Europe.\u201d Evidence undermines these claims. In reality, the world is not suffering destabilization due to climate change, but European populations are far\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0GettyImages-1172807596.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0GettyImages-1172807596.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0GettyImages-1172807596.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0GettyImages-1172807596.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0GettyImages-1172807596.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":258459,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=258459","url_meta":{"origin":312704,"position":4},"title":"John Kerry targets farmers: \u2018We can\u2019t get to Net-Zero\u2026unless agriculture is front & center as part of the solution\u2019 \u2013 \u2018I refuse to call it climate change anymore. It\u2019s not change. It\u2019s a crisis\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Kerry\u00a0lamented that agriculture production\u00a0alone creates 33% of the world\u2019s total greenhouse gas emissions, arguing that reducing those emissions must be \u201cfront and center\u201d in the quest to defeat global warming, during remarks Wednesday morning at the Department of Agriculture\u2019s AIM for Climate Summit. The former secretary of state also touted\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"agriculture\"","block_context":{"text":"agriculture","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=agriculture"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0john-kerry-carbon-offsets-coal.webp?fit=1200%2C694&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0john-kerry-carbon-offsets-coal.webp?fit=1200%2C694&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0john-kerry-carbon-offsets-coal.webp?fit=1200%2C694&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0john-kerry-carbon-offsets-coal.webp?fit=1200%2C694&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0john-kerry-carbon-offsets-coal.webp?fit=1200%2C694&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":269034,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=269034","url_meta":{"origin":312704,"position":5},"title":"In the Heat of Climate Change Drama, Spain May Choose Its Own Path","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/07\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Spain\u2019s looming national election serves as a pivotal stage where contentious climate narratives collide. A harsh heatwave currently gripping the country provides a sensational backdrop to the political drama, with many dubbing the election as the \u2018climate referendum\u2019. Warm temperatures and water-use restrictions are being portrayed as dire warnings of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-680.png?fit=1024%2C763&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-680.png?fit=1024%2C763&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-680.png?fit=1024%2C763&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-680.png?fit=1024%2C763&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/312704","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=312704"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/312704\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":312709,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/312704\/revisions\/312709"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/312707"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=312704"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=312704"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=312704"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}