{"id":312213,"date":"2024-03-23T15:27:08","date_gmt":"2024-03-23T14:27:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=312213"},"modified":"2024-03-23T15:27:11","modified_gmt":"2024-03-23T14:27:11","slug":"measuring-and-analysing-sea-levels-using-satellites-during-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=312213","title":{"rendered":"Measuring and Analysing Sea Levels using Satellites during 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Essay by Dr. Alan Welch FBIS FRAS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have now entered the 4th<\/sup> decade of measuring sea level rise using the quartet of satellites Topex and Jason 1, 2 and 3.  The first 3 decades were reported in the trio of papers (Ref 1<\/a>), (Ref 2<\/a>) and (Ref 3<\/a>).  These concluded that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1.  The perceived \u201caccelerations\u201d are mathematical accelerations occurring due to the methods of calculation, i.e. quadratic curve fitting, as used by Nerem et al<\/a> [.pdf] (Ref 4) in their 2018 paper.  Also, the start date of Jan 1993 also plays a major role in how the \u201caccelerations\u201d pan out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2.  The \u201caccelerations\u201d are now generally reducing year on year and are predicted to reach levels compatible with the long term (over 100 years) Tidal Gauge values during the next decade or two before stabilising over the next few decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3.  A time span of 30 years is much too short a period to calculate actual accelerations with 3 or more times this period being needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this paper \u201caccelerations\u201d is used to indicate that those values are mathematically produced using twice the quadratic coefficient.  Having said that the trends in values since about 2012 have settled sufficiently to make actual judgements regarding long term variation and trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data for year 2023 will now be analysed with emphasis on 2 aspects, namely the predicted sizeable El Ni\u00f1o  and the shenanigans concerning the data for October and November when nearly every data value changed with some changes being quite significant at over 8mm compared with annual increases of 3 to 4 mm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Data releases via the NASA Global Climate Change\/Vital-Signs\/Sea Level Rise<\/a>  web site were made during 2023 for January, February,  April,  June, October,  November and December but although all were analysed, not all will be reported on.  Since February 2018 the analysis of the data has taken place in a standard manner every time a new set of data has been released.  Extra processing has been also done when deemed of interest.  In January 2023 the NASA site added an extra column (column 13) to the data which was as column 12 but with the GIA not applied [see column definitions just below].  The diagrams appearing on the NASA website showing sea level rises also changed at this stage in using column 13 instead of column 12.  The inclusion of GIA or not only affects the rate of change and not any \u201cacceleration\u201d as it is set to a constant change of about 0.24 mm\/year.  In all the analyses for this paper and previous papers column 12 results have been used.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The full definitions of these 2 columns are,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

     Column 12 smoothed (60-day Gaussian type filter) GMSL (GIA applied) variation (mm); annual and semi-annual signal removed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

     Column 13 smoothed (60-day Gaussian type filter) GMSL (GIA not applied) variation (mm); annual and semi-annual signal removed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At this stage I would like to thank Kip Hansen for his patience in reading and replying to my steady stream of emails and whose comments have helped me formulate my ideas.  Kip has not agreed with all my findings and ideas, but a friendly rapport has taken place between us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Starting with the February data the \u201caccelerations\u201d have been calculated for increasing periods spanning the time from \u00a0January 1993 up to the time of calculation.\u00a0 The results are shown in Figures 1 and 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1 compares the \u201cacceleration\u201d trend with that obtained from assuming the sea levels deviate from a straight line in a sinusoidal manner with a period of 26 years, an amplitude of +\/-4.2 mm and with a suitable phase shift.\u00a0 The resulting graph of \u201caccelerations\u201d is labelled \u201cSinusoidal\u201d on Figure 1.\u00a0 This curve is not a sinusoidal curve but a portion of a \u201cdamped\u201d sinusoidal curve the derivation of which is shown in the Appendix to paper 1 (Ref 1).\u00a0 Its long-term variation is shown in Figure 3 together with average Tidal Gauge value.\u00a0 In this the sinusoidal curve is converging on zero but in reality, there could be a small long-term value commensurate with the Tidal Gauge value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

At this stage it had been stated that there may be a significant El Ni\u00f1o starting.\u00a0 Figure 4 below shows a plot of the El Ni\u00f1o Index.\u00a0 This is a more recent plot at the end of 2023, but the February 2023 data \u00a0coincide with just about when the Index was zero but increasing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It was decided to try to simulate the effect of an El Ni\u00f1o by taking the February 2023 data, which was available in May 2023, and extending the linear trend by about 5 years. Over the first 2 years a strong El Ni\u00f1o effect was achieved by raising the increase in sea level by roughly an extra 10mm.\u00a0 Over the next year the sea level drops back to the linear trend line.\u00a0 The Simulated El Ni\u00f1o is shown in figure 5 together with the linear trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A note to the purists.  Every month when a new month is analysed the slope of the linear fit varies slightly therefore any actual residual sea level (actual minus linear value) or sinusoidal variation is  measured to a slightly modified linear line.  As the slopes are generally in the range 3.2 to 3.5 mm\/year this is considered acceptable as being within \u201cengineering tolerance\u201d and being a retired engineer, I can sleep at night with this situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The modified data were analysed, and \u201caccelerations\u201d determined.\u00a0 The results are shown in Figure 6.\u00a0 The effect of the El Ni\u00f1o is to increase the \u201cacceleration\u201d temporary by about .01mm\/year2\u00a0<\/sup>over the next 12 months or so and then resume a downwards trend.\u00a0 Interestingly two previous El Ni\u00f1os in 2015\/16 (strong) and 2018\/19 (moderate) show up as wiggles on the blue curve.\u00a0 The associated reduction in \u201cacceleration\u201d since 2020 is also shown in Figure 7<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The next set of data to be analysed is for June 2023 resulting in Figures 8 and 9 which indicate a small influence of the El Ni\u00f1o starting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

When the October data were analysed, it was clear that there had been a dramatic change in the data readings as shown in figure 10.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 11 below shows the differences between the October 2023 data and the June 2023 data.\u00a0 Over the first 10 years there had been increases in the October data of up to over 8mm.\u00a0 For the next 13 years the values stayed roughly the same with a reduction of about 2 mm over the last 7 years.\u00a0 The kick up at the end is mainly due to the El Ni\u00f1o.\u00a0 The consequences of these changes were to reduce the slope by about 0.3 mm\/year and increase the \u201cacceleration\u201d by about 0.008 mm\/year2<\/sup>.\u00a0 As of now no explanation has been found as to why these changes occurred.\u00a0 The last time any changes\u00a0 had occurred was in August 2021 with those changes varying between -2.5 mm and 0.5 mm resulting in little change in slope and a reduction in \u201cacceleration\u201d of 0.004mm\/year2<\/sup>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The November and December data release were anticipated with some trepidation and then analysed.\u00a0 The changes from June 2023 to November 2023 were lower as shown in Figure 12 with a maximum change now being about 5mm.\u00a0 From June 2023 this resulted in a reduction in slope of about 0.2mm\/year and a reduction in \u201cacceleration\u201d of about 0.003mm\/year2<\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

At this stage it was decided to create a combined plot of the November data showing the NASA data and the curve produced by combining the linear line with the sinusoidal variation, Figure 13.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figures 14 and 15 show the latest (December 2023) plots of \u201cacceleration\u201d and reduction in \u201cacceleration\u201d since the 2020 peak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A final plot, Figure 16, shows a comparison of \u201caccelerations\u201d since Jan 2020 based on the February 2023 data with the added El Ni\u00f1o simulation and the December 2023 data.\u00a0 If the 2024 trend follows the simulation trends the \u201caccelerations\u201d will peak at about .085 mm\/year2<\/sup>\u00a0in the late summer of 2024 and quickly start reducing at nearly 0.01mm\/year2<\/sup>\u00a0until the next significant El Ni\u00f1o appears.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Who doesn\u2019t like a prediction? I\u2019ve put my head up over the wall but at 86, with no agenda, reputation, University role or job to keep it\u2019s nice to have that freedom.  Just have to keep taking the tablets to see it all come to fruition!!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One conclusion is that the \u201caccelerations\u201d as calculated are not the harbingers of Doom and Gloom that many Climate Scientists, the BBC and the Guardian Paper portray.  These \u201caccelerations\u201d may just be mathematical quirks and not of any major physical significance, but it could be revealing to try to match them and predict future variation especially over the next 10 years or so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2022\/05\/14\/sea-level-rise-acceleration-an-alternative-hypothesis\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2.  https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2022\/06\/28\/sea-level-rise-acceleration-an-alternative-hypothesis-part-2\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2023\/05\/02\/30-years-of-measuring-and-analysing-sea-levels-using-satellites\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Nerem, R. S., Beckley, B. D., Fasullo, J. T., Hamlington, B. D., Masters, D., & Mitchum, G. T. (2018). Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era.<\/a> (full text .pdf<\/a>)  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115<\/em>(9).  First published February 12, 2018<\/p>\n\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comment by Kip Hansen:<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have facilitated the publication of this essay, the fourth of Dr. Welch\u2019s contributions here. Dr. Welch and I have had a long-standing continuing conversation, over several years, about sea level rise [SLR] rates and the assertion by some, Nerem et al. and others, that sea level rise is accelerating (meaning for SLR, rising faster and faster).  NASA\/NOAA likewise call the change in the rate seen when the satellite-calculated SLR is tacked on to the global tide gauge record at the year 1996 \u2018accelerating SLR\u201d.  As with all numerical data that can possibly be associated with Climate Change, there is and has been a lot of fiddling with the methods, calculations, and resulting numbers.  Thus, with sea level data, for which the annual changes are small compared to the magnitude of the confounding factors, little if anything can be ascertained with any degree of scientific certainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long-time readers will remember that I am not a fan of the SLR Acceleration topic \u2013 for reasons stated above.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr. Welch\u2019s take on acceleration is as valid as any other out there. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earth\u2019s sea levels are rising \u2013 they will continue to rise for all the reasons they have risen for the last few hundred years.  It is my opinion that they will continue to rise at the same rate \u2013 2 or maybe even 3 mm per year \u2013 into the future.  This slow steady rise can and will be a problem for highly developed low-lying areas.  Building within 8 inches of the today\u2019s sea level \u2013 mean high tide \u2014  is and was always exceptionally foolish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My thanks to Dr. Alan Welch for his continuing efforts to keep a close eye on the topic which allows him to catch repeated alterations of the data sets being used. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr. Welch is a guest here, please treat him like you would a guest in your own home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The data for year 2023 will now be analysed with emphasis on 2 aspects, namely the predicted sizeable El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0 and the shenanigans concerning the data for October and November when nearly every data value changed with some changes being quite significant at over 8mm compared with annual increases of 3 to 4 mm.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":312232,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818233,691827796,691827795,691818989],"class_list":{"0":"post-312213","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-691818233","9":"tag-accelerations","10":"tag-satellites-topex-and-jason","11":"tag-sea-levels","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0sea-level-rise-via-scientific-american-2000x858-1.jpg?fit=2000%2C858&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1jdH","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":236772,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=236772","url_meta":{"origin":312213,"position":0},"title":"Science Catches Up With WUWT","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"29\/12\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"There\u2019s no evidence of any acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise in either the tide gauge or the shabbily-spliced satellite records.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/0drop-shadow.webp?fit=1199%2C788&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/0drop-shadow.webp?fit=1199%2C788&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/0drop-shadow.webp?fit=1199%2C788&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/0drop-shadow.webp?fit=1199%2C788&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/0drop-shadow.webp?fit=1199%2C788&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":255812,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=255812","url_meta":{"origin":312213,"position":1},"title":"30 Years of Measuring and Analysing Sea Levels using Satellites","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"I find Dr. Welch\u2019s analyses interesting and feel strongly that Dr. Welch\u2019s analyses deserve to be seen and discussed.","rel":"","context":"In \"NASA\"","block_context":{"text":"NASA","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=nasa"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0359500989.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0359500989.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0359500989.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0359500989.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0359500989.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":286745,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=286745","url_meta":{"origin":312213,"position":2},"title":"International Ocean Satellite Monitors How El Ni\u00f1o Is Shaping Up","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The maps above show sea levels in the Pacific Ocean during early October of 1997, 2015, and 2023, in the run up to El Ni\u00f1o events. Higher-than-average ocean heights appear red and white, and lower-than-average heights are in blue and purple. NASA\/JPL-Caltech Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich is the latest satellite contributing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"el Ni\u00f1o\"","block_context":{"text":"el Ni\u00f1o","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=el-nino-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00image-139-1024x506-1.webp?fit=1024%2C506&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00image-139-1024x506-1.webp?fit=1024%2C506&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00image-139-1024x506-1.webp?fit=1024%2C506&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00image-139-1024x506-1.webp?fit=1024%2C506&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":232227,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=232227","url_meta":{"origin":312213,"position":3},"title":"Sea Level Is Rising \u2013 But So What?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/12\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Climate Central needs more than a fancy interactive map to make a convincing case sea level will change that\u00a0drastically.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/0bay-of-bengal_5496354876_bd7eac2579_o-1024x683-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C683&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/0bay-of-bengal_5496354876_bd7eac2579_o-1024x683-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C683&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/0bay-of-bengal_5496354876_bd7eac2579_o-1024x683-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C683&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/0bay-of-bengal_5496354876_bd7eac2579_o-1024x683-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C683&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":426873,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=426873","url_meta":{"origin":312213,"position":4},"title":"WUWT Leads The Way Again","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"18\/02\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"So \u2026 can we put this question to bed?\u00a0 There is no evidence of acceleration in the actual tide gauge sea level data, and the apparent acceleration in the satellite data is merely an artifact of splicing disparate satellite records.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0-Sea-levels-town.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0-Sea-levels-town.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0-Sea-levels-town.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0-Sea-levels-town.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0-Sea-levels-town.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":421483,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=421483","url_meta":{"origin":312213,"position":5},"title":"Measuring and Analysing Sea Levels using Satellites during 2025","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/01\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"This report presents and analyses the sea level data for 2025.\u00a0 It was a roller coaster year for sea level data that turned into a \u201cHunt the Data\u201d exercise.\u00a0 As a consequence, the analyses main purpose is to link the new data to the old and produce a new methodology\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"NASA data\"","block_context":{"text":"NASA data","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=nasa-data"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-162341.png?fit=1200%2C595&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-162341.png?fit=1200%2C595&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, 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