{"id":309931,"date":"2024-03-18T12:37:03","date_gmt":"2024-03-18T11:37:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=309931"},"modified":"2024-03-18T12:37:08","modified_gmt":"2024-03-18T11:37:08","slug":"getting-to-net-zero-in-canada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=309931","title":{"rendered":"Getting to Net-Zero in Canada"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"482\" data-attachment-id=\"309940\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=309940\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0co2-6317012_1920-1536x1024-1.jpg?fit=1536%2C1024&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1536,1024\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0co2-6317012_1920-1536&amp;#215;1024-1\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0co2-6317012_1920-1536x1024-1.jpg?fit=723%2C482&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0co2-6317012_1920-1536x1024-1.jpg?resize=723%2C482&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-309940\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0co2-6317012_1920-1536x1024-1.jpg?resize=1024%2C683&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0co2-6317012_1920-1536x1024-1.jpg?resize=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0co2-6317012_1920-1536x1024-1.jpg?resize=768%2C512&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0co2-6317012_1920-1536x1024-1.jpg?resize=1200%2C800&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0co2-6317012_1920-1536x1024-1.jpg?w=1536&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0co2-6317012_1920-1536x1024-1.jpg?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.friendsofscience.org\/2024\/03\/15\/getting-to-net-zero-in-canada\/\">Friends of Science Calgary<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Contributed by Ian Cameron, Director for Friends of Science Society \u00a92024<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/laws-lois.justice.gc.ca\/eng\/acts\/c-19.3\/fulltext.html\"><em>Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act<\/em><\/a>, which became law on June 29, 2021, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.canada.ca\/en\/services\/environment\/weather\/climatechange\/climate-plan\/net-zero-emissions-2050.html\">enshrines in legislation<\/a>&nbsp;Canada\u2019s commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.\u201d To date most of the federal government\u2019s focus has been on its 2030 Paris Agreement target of reaching CO<sub>2<\/sub>eq emission reductions 40-45% below the 2005 level of 741 Mt (i.e., 2030 net emissions of 445-408 Mt).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The government\u2019s first attempt to determine what it would take to reach net-zero was a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cer-rec.gc.ca\/en\/data-analysis\/canada-energy-future\/2021\/\">report<\/a>&nbsp;released in December 2021 by the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cer-rec.gc.ca\/en\/about\/who-we-are-what-we-do\/\">Canadian Energy Regulator<\/a>&nbsp;(CER) called&nbsp;<em>Canada\u2019s Energy Future 2021: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050<\/em>&nbsp;(EF2021). EF2021 did not explicitly model a net-zero future, which&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/science\/cer-report-missing-net-zero-1.6285394\">drew criticism<\/a>&nbsp;and resulted in a directive from the Minister of Natural Resources to the CER to \u201cprovide even more data in line with Canada achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thus,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cer-rec.gc.ca\/en\/data-analysis\/canada-energy-future\/2023\/\"><em>Canada\u2019s Energy Future 2023<\/em><\/a>&nbsp;(EF2023), published in June 2023, became the CER\u2019s \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cer-rec.gc.ca\/en\/data-analysis\/canada-energy-future\/2023\/message-from-the-chief-executive-officer.html\">first long-term outlook<\/a>&nbsp;on modeling net-zero by 2050.\u201d The results of&nbsp;<em>EF2023<\/em>&nbsp;are not future predictions or policy recommendations, but rather the product of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cer-rec.gc.ca\/en\/data-analysis\/canada-energy-future\/2023\/scenarios-and-assumptions\/index.html#a1\">three scenarios<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Global Net-zero \u2013 Canada achieves net-zero by 2050, and the rest of the world reduces emissions enough to limit global warming to 1.5\u00b0C.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Canada Net-zero \u2013 Canada achieves net-zero by 2050, and the rest of the world reduces emissions, but not enough to limit global warming to 1.5\u00b0C. This affects some of the international factors that are inputs to the CER\u2019s models.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Current measures \u2013 No net-zero as there is limited action in Canada beyond current measures and also limited future global climate action.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Figure 1&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cer-rec.gc.ca\/en\/data-analysis\/canada-energy-future\/2023\/scenarios-and-assumptions\/index.html#a2\">(Fig. A.2<\/a>&nbsp;of EF2023) illustrates the iterative approach for the Global Net-zero and Canada Net-zero scenarios, which used the CER\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cer-rec.gc.ca\/en\/data-analysis\/canada-energy-future\/2023\/appendix-3\/#:~:text=The%20CER%20model%20simulates%20how,generating%20units%20and%20delivery%20systems.\">Energy Futures Modeling System<\/a>. The main input driver for the modeling is what the CER&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cer-rec.gc.ca\/en\/data-analysis\/canada-energy-future\/2023\/scenarios-and-assumptions\/index.html#a1\">refers to<\/a>&nbsp;as the \u201caggregate cost of carbon,\u201d which represents a hypothetical suite of policies, regulations and programs assumed for the 2030-2050 period. In the Global Net-zero scenario this means an inflation-adjusted (i.e., 2022$) $330\/t of CO<sub>2<\/sub>eq in 2050, and $380\/t for the Canada Net-zero scenario (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cer-rec.gc.ca\/en\/data-analysis\/canada-energy-future\/2023\/appendix-1\/\">Table A1.1<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fig. 1<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"218\" data-attachment-id=\"309933\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=309933\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-213.png?fit=1024%2C309&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1024,309\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-213\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-213.png?fit=723%2C218&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-213.png?resize=723%2C218&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-309933\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-213.png?w=1024&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-213.png?resize=300%2C91&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-213.png?resize=768%2C232&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Figure 2, copied from Fig. ES.2 of EF2023\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cer-rec.gc.ca\/en\/data-analysis\/canada-energy-future\/2023\/executive-summary\/index.html#a1\">Executive Summary<\/a>, shows one of the modeling results (end-use energy use by fuel type.) As explained in the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cer-rec.gc.ca\/en\/data-analysis\/canada-energy-future\/2023\/results\/index.html#a2\">Energy Demand<\/a>&nbsp;section total end-use energy demand for the two Net-zero scenarios declines by 22% and 12%, from 2021 to 2050, despite continuing economic and population growth. This decline is largely due to \u201cswitching to different technologies and fuels, more efficient use of energy, and lower activity levels in some sectors.\u201d The CER assumed real annual GDP growth of 1.4% for the Global Net-zero scenario and slightly higher in the other two scenarios; see p.112 of the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cer-rec.gc.ca\/en\/data-analysis\/canada-energy-future\/2023\/canada-energy-futures-2023.pdf\">full report<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fig. 2<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"247\" data-attachment-id=\"309934\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=309934\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-214.png?fit=975%2C333&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"975,333\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-214\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-214.png?fit=723%2C247&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-214.png?resize=723%2C247&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-309934\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-214.png?w=975&amp;ssl=1 975w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-214.png?resize=300%2C102&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-214.png?resize=768%2C262&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Figure 3 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cer-rec.gc.ca\/en\/data-analysis\/canada-energy-future\/2023\/results\/index.html#a2\">Fig. R.4<\/a>&nbsp;of EF2023) depicts the emissions modeled in the Global Net-zero scenario. Offsetting the positive emissions in 2050 requires \u201cnegative emissions\u201d from electricity (-37 Mt); hydrogen production (-21 Mt); direct air capture (-46 Mt); and land use, land-use change, and forestry (-50 Mt).&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cer-rec.gc.ca\/en\/data-analysis\/canada-energy-future\/2023\/results\/index.html#a2\">Table R.1<\/a>&nbsp;of EF2023 provides explanations for each of the nine economic sectors modeled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fig. 3<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"351\" data-attachment-id=\"309935\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=309935\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-215.png?fit=975%2C474&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"975,474\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-215\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-215.png?fit=723%2C351&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-215.png?resize=723%2C351&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-309935\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-215.png?w=975&amp;ssl=1 975w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-215.png?resize=300%2C146&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-215.png?resize=768%2C373&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/policyalternatives.ca\/offices\">Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives<\/a>, \u201cone of Canada\u2019s leading progressive voices in public policy debates,\u201d took note of EF2023 and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/policyalternatives.ca\/newsroom\/news-releases\/NetZero-2024\">commissioned<\/a>&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.postcarbon.org\/our-people\/david-hughes\/\">David Hughes<\/a>&nbsp;to use it as the basis for a report, released on February 8, 2024 and called&nbsp;<em>Getting to Net-Zero in Canada \u2013 Scale of the problem, government projections and daunting challenges<\/em>&nbsp;(<a href=\"https:\/\/policyalternatives.ca\/sites\/default\/files\/uploads\/publications\/BC%20Office\/2024\/02\/ccpa-bc-getting-to-net-zero-feb2024-web.pdf\">full 64-page report<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/policyalternatives.ca\/sites\/default\/files\/uploads\/publications\/BC%20Office\/2024\/02\/ccpa-bc-getting-to-net-zero-feb2024-summary-web.pdf\">6-page summary<\/a>). This&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/thetyee.ca\/Analysis\/2024\/02\/08\/Canada-Daunting-Path-Net-Zero-Carbon\/\">article<\/a>&nbsp;in&nbsp;<em>The Tyee<\/em>&nbsp;quotes Mr. Hughes\u2019 reason for writing&nbsp;<em>Getting to Net-Zero<\/em>: \u201cMy objective is to provide policymakers and the public with an understanding of the scale of the problem so they can appreciate the scale that any solution is going to have to take. Only with understanding and buy-in can the necessary changes be implemented.\u201d Figure 4, taken from Mr. Hughes\u2019 report, illustrates the \u201cscale of the problem.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fig. 4<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"382\" data-attachment-id=\"309937\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=309937\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-216.png?fit=975%2C515&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"975,515\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-216\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-216.png?fit=723%2C382&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-216.png?resize=723%2C382&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-309937\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-216.png?w=975&amp;ssl=1 975w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-216.png?resize=300%2C158&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-216.png?resize=768%2C406&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Discussion and Implications chapter of the full&nbsp;<em>Getting to Net-Zero<\/em>&nbsp;report (pp.56-61) states that, in the CER\u2019s Net-zero scenarios, per capita end use of energy must be reduced 33-41% and lists a number of unrealistic outcomes (e.g., wind and solar generation must increase 10-12 times and direct air capture 4,600-5,500 times current world capacity), together with optimistic assumptions about future cost reductions in carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS), direct air capture, wind and solar capital costs, hydrogen production, battery storage, and others (see&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cer-rec.gc.ca\/en\/data-analysis\/canada-energy-future\/2023\/appendix-2\/index.html\">Table A2.1<\/a>&nbsp;of EF2023). As&nbsp;<em>The Tyee<\/em>&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/thetyee.ca\/Analysis\/2024\/02\/08\/Canada-Daunting-Path-Net-Zero-Carbon\/\">article<\/a>&nbsp;puts it, the CER \u201clargely assumes in its successful scenarios that the cost of renewables, hydrogen, batteries, CCS and nuclear power will magically go down,\u201d while in reality inflationary pressure is increasing these costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The key conclusions from&nbsp;<em>Getting to Net-Zero<\/em>&nbsp;(pp.62-63):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Canada\u2019s March 2023 policies would see only a 16% reduction in emissions below 2022 levels by 2050 and must be greatly strengthened.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>To offset the relatively large proportion of fossil fuels in 2050 end-use energy demand, the CER over-relied on CCUS (33 to 38-fold increase), and a thousand-fold increase in direct air capture. This is a high-risk strategy. Instead, Mr. Hughes recommends reducing end-use demand for fossil fuels.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The CER\u2019s Canada net-zero scenario assumed maintaining high levels of fossil fuel production for export in 2050, along with carbon capture and direct air capture to offset emissions from producing oil and gas for export.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The CER over-optimistically assumed that hydrogen can grow from almost nothing to 11-12% of end-use energy by 2050.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Electricity generation will have to increase from the CER\u2019s 39-41% share of end-use energy to a \u201cmore realistic\u201d 55%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Tripling the sequestration capacity of Canada\u2019s forests, as assumed in the CER\u2019s two Net-zero scenarios, will require major improvements in forest management practices.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Given his above-mentioned issues with the CER\u2019s modeling, Mr. Hughes concludes that the government\u2019s major priority for net-zero should be reducing energy demand, as he states on page 6 of&nbsp;<em>Getting to Net-Zero<\/em>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cReducing energy consumption is the low-hanging fruit, as it eliminates the cost of new energy production and emissions reduction infrastructure. Prioritizing conservation, efficiency and behavioral change must become a major government policy priority.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mr. Hughes\u2019 report doesn\u2019t provide any figures for how much to reduce energy consumption (or what the whole net-zero effort will cost), only that the CER\u2019s per capita energy reduction of 33-41% won\u2019t be enough. As he&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/thetyee.ca\/Analysis\/2024\/02\/08\/Canada-Daunting-Path-Net-Zero-Carbon\/\">told<\/a>&nbsp;<em>The Tyee<\/em>: \u201cWe are going to have to accept contraction, unfortunately. It has been a slice. But the math does not work for continuous growth.\u201d In other words, getting to net-zero means an&nbsp;<strong>end to economic growth<\/strong>, let alone the 1.4%\/year real GDP increase assumed in EF2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Minister of Natural Resources\u2019&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newswire.ca\/news-releases\/statement-minister-wilkinson-s-statement-regarding-the-canada-energy-regulator-s-first-long-term-outlook-modelling-net-zero-by-2050-in-canada-886827972.html\">statement<\/a>&nbsp;acknowledging EF2023 ends with: \u201cI would like to thank the CER for its thoughtful report, and I look forward to continuing my work with partners across the country in&nbsp;<strong>growing our economy<\/strong>&nbsp;and reducing emissions.\u201d Among the partners working with the minister is the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/pathwaysalliance.ca\/?gad_source=1&amp;gclid=Cj0KCQjw-r-vBhC-ARIsAGgUO2CxfHyeqIB38mm4tiL4e86Yim01sSP54g9nPHqeEyva34FrlKdX47kaAt7cEALw_wcB&amp;gclsrc=aw.ds\">Pathways Alliance<\/a>, a group of oilsands producers proposing to build a $16.5 billion CCUS network in northern Alberta. To date, no construction start and the minister&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/calgaryherald.com\/opinion\/columnists\/varcoe-canada-oilsands-producers-losing-patience-feds-ccus\">is growing weary of waiting<\/a>. So he recently told the alliance that he wants to see \u201cprogress on the ground,\u201d but alliance members are holding back as they await details on a needed federal investment tax credit, which is yet to be passed. As well, the producers are concerned about a proposed federal initiative to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/calgaryherald.com\/opinion\/columnists\/varcoe-alberta-business-leaders-scrap-canada-oil-gas-emissions-cap\">impose an emissions cap<\/a>&nbsp;on the oil and gas sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To burnish their climate credentials the minister and his colleagues desperately want to issue press releases and pose for photo-ops showing tangible progress for the commercially useless Pathways Alliance project. What the ministers desperately&nbsp;<strong>don\u2019t want<\/strong>&nbsp;is to tell the public that fulfilling their government\u2019s net-zero agenda will entail a quarter century of increasing energy and economic deprivation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>This article will also appear in our March quarterly newsletter.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">~~~~<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>If you like our\u00a0<strong>reality checks<\/strong>\u00a0on climate and energy policy claims, please support our work by becoming a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/friendsofscience.org\/join.html\">member<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/friendsofscience.org\/donate.html\">donor<\/a>. You can also send an e-transfer to:\u00a0<a href=\"mailto:contact@friendsofscience.org\">contact@friendsofscience.org<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"402\" data-attachment-id=\"309938\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=309938\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0curry-co2-not-control-knob-bboard-2.png?fit=957%2C532&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"957,532\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0curry-co2-not-control-knob-bboard-2\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0curry-co2-not-control-knob-bboard-2.png?fit=723%2C402&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0curry-co2-not-control-knob-bboard-2.png?resize=723%2C402&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-309938\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0curry-co2-not-control-knob-bboard-2.png?w=957&amp;ssl=1 957w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0curry-co2-not-control-knob-bboard-2.png?resize=300%2C167&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0curry-co2-not-control-knob-bboard-2.png?resize=768%2C427&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The\u00a0Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act, which became law on June 29, 2021, \u201censhrines in legislation\u00a0Canada\u2019s commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.\u201d <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":309940,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"The\u00a0Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act, which became law on June 29, 2021, \u201censhrines in legislation\u00a0Canada\u2019s commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.\u201d ","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818320,691820083,691818056,691818154],"class_list":{"0":"post-309931","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-alberta","9":"tag-canada","10":"tag-climate-change","11":"tag-net-zero","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0co2-6317012_1920-1536x1024-1.jpg?fit=1536%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1iCT","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":360750,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=360750","url_meta":{"origin":309931,"position":0},"title":"The biodiversity \u201cCRISIS\u201d \u2013 What Canadians Need to Know","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Bill C-73, the Nature Accountability Bill, an Act respecting transparency and accountability in relation to certain commitments Canada has made under the Convention on Biological Diversity, was introduced into Parliament on November 22, 2021, but has not proceeded to Second Reading or Committee stage. Consequently, there has been almost no\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"biological diversity\"","block_context":{"text":"biological diversity","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=biological-diversity"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Screenshot-2025-01-06-170018.png?fit=1078%2C913&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Screenshot-2025-01-06-170018.png?fit=1078%2C913&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Screenshot-2025-01-06-170018.png?fit=1078%2C913&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Screenshot-2025-01-06-170018.png?fit=1078%2C913&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Screenshot-2025-01-06-170018.png?fit=1078%2C913&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":284113,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=284113","url_meta":{"origin":309931,"position":1},"title":"When Will Climate Policy Hit the Wall? Text of Robert Lyman\u2019s Presentation.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"In fact, the Canadian carbon dioxide tax regime bears no resemblance to the theoretical ideal. The federal standard levy of $65 per tonne is scheduled to rise in steady increments to $170 per tonne in 2030. From \u00a0Friends of Science Calgary. Contributed by Robert Lyman \u00a9 2023. Robert Lyman\u2019s bio\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Canadian federal government\"","block_context":{"text":"Canadian federal government","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=canadian-federal-government"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0oeaa2g08z0i01.webp?fit=960%2C540&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0oeaa2g08z0i01.webp?fit=960%2C540&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0oeaa2g08z0i01.webp?fit=960%2C540&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0oeaa2g08z0i01.webp?fit=960%2C540&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":329918,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=329918","url_meta":{"origin":309931,"position":2},"title":"Burdensome Ideology","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/05\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In this article, I will try to identify and estimate the value of the regulations imposed by the federal government that indirectly raise consumers\u2019 costs.","rel":"","context":"In \"Canada\"","block_context":{"text":"Canada","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=canada"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Screenshot-2024-05-24-140631.png?fit=1080%2C923&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Screenshot-2024-05-24-140631.png?fit=1080%2C923&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Screenshot-2024-05-24-140631.png?fit=1080%2C923&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Screenshot-2024-05-24-140631.png?fit=1080%2C923&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0Screenshot-2024-05-24-140631.png?fit=1080%2C923&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":228592,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=228592","url_meta":{"origin":309931,"position":3},"title":"Too Far. Too Fast. NetZero 2030 and the Hubris of Proposed Carbon-Pricing Legislation.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/11\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Fourth,\u00a0carbon dioxide taxes are only one of over 300 current policy and program measures that federal and provincial governments\u00a0have implemented to promote the reduction of GHG emissions.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-402.png?fit=914%2C891&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-402.png?fit=914%2C891&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-402.png?fit=914%2C891&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-402.png?fit=914%2C891&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":206569,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=206569","url_meta":{"origin":309931,"position":4},"title":"Aussie Climate Minister Promises to Legislate Away that Evil CO2","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"30\/06\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Essay by Eric Worrall Because when you\u2019re a socialist, all that is needed to fix a problem is a government target, right? Chris Bowen outlines government\u2019s Climate Change Bill, vows to legislate emissions reduction target in the first week of parliamentThe Albanese Government will seek to legislate its 2030 and\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-127.png?fit=726%2C378&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-127.png?fit=726%2C378&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-127.png?fit=726%2C378&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-127.png?fit=726%2C378&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":298212,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=298212","url_meta":{"origin":309931,"position":5},"title":"SS Canada: Off Course and Headed for Icebergs","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"23\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Like an ocean liner approaching icebergs, the Canadian economy is in dangerous waters as it enters 2024.","rel":"","context":"In \"Canadian economy\"","block_context":{"text":"Canadian economy","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=canadian-economy"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-23-100722.png?fit=1079%2C893&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-23-100722.png?fit=1079%2C893&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-23-100722.png?fit=1079%2C893&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-23-100722.png?fit=1079%2C893&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0Screenshot-2024-01-23-100722.png?fit=1079%2C893&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/309931","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=309931"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/309931\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":309942,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/309931\/revisions\/309942"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/309940"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=309931"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=309931"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=309931"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}