{"id":307284,"date":"2024-03-11T20:34:50","date_gmt":"2024-03-11T19:34:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=307284"},"modified":"2024-03-11T20:34:53","modified_gmt":"2024-03-11T19:34:53","slug":"el-ninos-collapse-has-begun","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=307284","title":{"rendered":"El Nino’s Collapse Has Begun"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Cliff Mass Weather Blog<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cliff Mass<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The entire character of this winter has been characterized by a strong El Nino.<\/strong>  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Nino impacts have included low snowpack over Washington State, huge snowpack and heavy precipitation over California, and warm temperatures over the Upper Plains states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, El Nino’s days are numbered and its decline is proceeding rapidly right now. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, consider the critical measure of El Nino:\u00a0 the sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific (the Nino 3.4 area).\u00a0 The warmth of this El Nino peaked in late November (about 2.1\u00b0C above normal) and is now declining fairly rapidly (currently at roughly 1.3\u00b0C above normal).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But the cooling is really more dramatic than that:  a LOT of cooling has been happening beneath the surface!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To demonstrate this, take a look at subsurface temperatures (the difference from normal) for the lowest 300 m under the surface for a vertical cross-section across the Pacific (below).   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On 8 January, there was a substantial warm layer extending about 100 m beneath the surface.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But look at the same cross-section on 27 February.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wow–what a difference!\u00a0 The warm water has dramatically cooled, with only a thin veneer of warmth evident for much of the Pacific.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rapidly cooling has occurred beneath the surface and this cool water is about to spread to the surface.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

If you really want to appreciate the profound cooling take a look at the amount of heat in the upper ocean for the western tropical Pacific (below, the difference from normal is being shown).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A very, very dramatic change has occurred.\u00a0 The heat content of the upper ocean peaked in late November and then plummeted.\u00a0 \u00a0Declined so much that the water below the surface is now COOLER than normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

El Nino fans will be further dismayed to learn that models are going for a continuous decline….so much so that they predict a La Nina next year!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So why should folks care about this major decline in El Nino here on the West Coast?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Nino results in a trough of low pressure centered to our south and west, something evident in the upper-level maps (for 500 hPa, about 18,000 ft) for February hown below. The blue colors indicate lower-than-normal heights\/pressures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But with El Nino weakening, a major pattern change is possible, and the latest model  forecast is for a major change, with a huge ridge (red color) over our region for March 13-20th.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

FINALLY, we may experience some real springtime weather.\u00a0 Like highs in the mid-60s!\u00a0 I can’t wait.\u00a0 Tired of one frosty morning after another!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The entire character of this winter has been characterized by a strong El Nino.\u00a0 However, El Nino’s days are numbered and its decline is proceeding rapidly right now.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":307298,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"The entire character of this winter has been characterized by a strong El Nino.\u00a0 However, El Nino's days are numbered and its decline is proceeding rapidly right now.\u00a0","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818200,691818541,691821775,691827551],"class_list":{"0":"post-307284","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-el-nino","9":"tag-la-nina","10":"tag-pacific","11":"tag-the-cooling","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0wp6696151.webp?fit=1920%2C1080&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1hWc","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":293546,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=293546","url_meta":{"origin":307284,"position":0},"title":"Is the Low Snowpack this Year a Sign of Global Warming?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"This incurious article does not review the trend of mountain snowpack over the past several decades:\u00a0a crucial test of whether climate change could be blamed.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0seattle_skyline.jpg?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0seattle_skyline.jpg?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0seattle_skyline.jpg?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0seattle_skyline.jpg?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0seattle_skyline.jpg?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":308233,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=308233","url_meta":{"origin":307284,"position":1},"title":"Collapsing El Ni\u00f1o Spells End to Year-Long Bout of Climate Hysteria","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"To be serious, the current strong and natural\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0event is starting to dramatically collapse with critical ocean temperatures in the central tropical Pacific ocean falling from 2.1\u00b0C above normal in late November to 1.3\u00b0C. 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