{"id":306778,"date":"2024-03-10T12:53:24","date_gmt":"2024-03-10T11:53:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=306778"},"modified":"2024-03-10T12:53:29","modified_gmt":"2024-03-10T11:53:29","slug":"hudson-bay-polar-bears-now-considered-most-likely-to-survive-future-sea-ice-loss","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=306778","title":{"rendered":"Hudson Bay polar bears now considered most likely to survive future sea ice loss"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From polarbearscience<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the last 10 years, Hudson Bay polar bears have morphed from being the \u201cmost at risk\u201d across the Arctic to the \u201cleast at risk.\u201d Who would have thought?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s probably because the experts now have to admit that polar bear numbers have not declined since 2004<\/a> and bears have been in good body condition since at least 2016<\/a>. Southern Hudson Bay bears have apparently increased in number <\/a>since 2016. How ironic is it that the photo above, taken in Hudson Bay \u2014 the only Arctic region where trees grow \u2014 was used to illustrate a recent Mother Jones<\/a> <\/em>article promoting a new prediction<\/a> of future Arctic summer sea ice loss that\u2019s said to pose a threat to polar bear survival.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is a brief retrospective of predictions for survival of Western Hudson Bay polar bears (based on predictions of future sea ice loss), my emphasis throughout:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2013<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2013,<\/strong> Andrew Derocher told The Guardian<\/a><\/em> (27 November):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAll indications are that this population could collapse in the space of a year or two if conditions got bad enough,<\/strong>\u201d said Andrew Derocher, a polar bear scientist at the University of Alberta.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn 2020, I think it is still an open bet that we are going to have polar bears in western Hudson Bay.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Contrary to this prediction, sea ice conditions over Western Hudson Bay haven\u2019t changed since about 1998: most years, the ice-free season has been about 3 weeks longer than it was in the 1980s. Summer sea ice conditions are not<\/em> getting worse<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2016<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2016, seal biologist Steve Ferguson told the Winnipeg Free Press<\/a> (6 December):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hudson Bay could experience its first ice-free winter within five to 10 years, Ferguson said.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think polar bears and seals will be able to adapt. I think they\u2019ll just die out in places like Hudson Bay. There\u2019s little to stop the trend in loss of sea ice, even if we stop producing greenhouse gasses,\u201d he said.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Contrary to this dire prediction, Hudson Bay has been no where near to ice-free in winter, see the sea ice development chart below showing ice thickness for the week of 4 March 2024:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

2024<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steven Amstrup told the Winnipeg Free Press<\/a><\/em> in 2024 (28 February) the following about Western Hudson Bay polar bears, seemingly in direct contradiction to a paper he co-authored last year<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even so, the population seems to be faring better than the rest of the world, <\/strong>Amstrup said during his presentation.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf there\u2019s a likelihood of being able to save bears anywhere, it\u2019s probably in (the) Hudson Bay,\u201d he said<\/strong><\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rate of decline in sea ice is lower in the western and southern portions of the Hudson Bay than anywhere else globally, Amstrup relayed.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This prediction seems like a clear admission that previous predictions were wrong. This means that any of the models that formerly used WH bears as a proxy<\/a> to predict the survival of all other subpopulations, including the one published last year<\/a>, are not worth the paper they were printed on. What a surprise!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

That\u2019s probably because the experts now have to admit that polar bear numbers have\u00a0not declined since 2004\u00a0and bears have been\u00a0in good body condition since at least 2016. Southern Hudson Bay bears have apparently\u00a0increased in number\u00a0since 2016. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":306784,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"That\u2019s probably because the experts now have to admit that polar bear numbers have\u00a0not declined since 2004\u00a0and bears have been\u00a0in good body condition since at least 2016. Southern Hudson Bay bears have apparently\u00a0increased in number\u00a0since 2016. ","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819134,691819743,691818250,691818251],"class_list":{"0":"post-306778","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-alarmism","9":"tag-climate-propaganda","10":"tag-hudson-bay","11":"tag-polar-bears","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00Simon-Gee-9879-1.jpg?fit=2048%2C1365&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1hO2","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":228485,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=228485","url_meta":{"origin":306778,"position":0},"title":"Polar bear habitat update: ice forming along Hudson Bay, Wrangel & Franz Josef Islands surrounded","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/10\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Freeze-up this year has been a bit slower than 2020, which was\u00a0as early as the earliest freeze-ups in the 1980s, but not by much.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/00Wapusk-NP-Female-and-2-COYs-8-Nov-2022-still.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/00Wapusk-NP-Female-and-2-COYs-8-Nov-2022-still.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/00Wapusk-NP-Female-and-2-COYs-8-Nov-2022-still.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/00Wapusk-NP-Female-and-2-COYs-8-Nov-2022-still.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/00Wapusk-NP-Female-and-2-COYs-8-Nov-2022-still.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":290645,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=290645","url_meta":{"origin":306778,"position":1},"title":"Despite hand-wringing about Churchill polar bears this year, 2023 wasn\u2019t their worst summer","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"For months, the media has been bleating about the poor polar bears of Churchill suffering from lack of sea ice blamed on human-caused climate change during the so-called\u00a0\u2018hottest year\u2019 on record: in\u00a0April,\u00a0July,\u00a0August,\u00a0November, and\u00a0December.","rel":"","context":"In \"2023\"","block_context":{"text":"2023","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2023"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/image-201.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":267566,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267566","url_meta":{"origin":306778,"position":2},"title":"Hudson Bay sea ice loss has not accelerated since 2014: in fact, summer ice cover has improved","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/15\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"This is only the third year since 2014 that the bay has had less than usual amounts of ice, which means most years since then have had normal or nearly normal ice coverage, similar to the 1980s. Hardly the\u00a0ever-worsening catastrophe\u00a0of sea ice loss story being spun in the media for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Hudson Bay\"","block_context":{"text":"Hudson Bay","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=hudson-bay"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":289393,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=289393","url_meta":{"origin":306778,"position":3},"title":"Western Hudson Bay polar bears on their way offshore to hunt seals: freeze-up has begun","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/01\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From polarbearscience Official confirmation\u00a0has come in this morning that polar bears that have spent the summer fasting along Western Hudson Bay now have enough ice to move offshore. That makes this year\u00a0a bit later than usual\u00a0(average is 16 November) but is not one of the extremely late freeze-ups,\u00a0as happened in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"polar bears\"","block_context":{"text":"polar bears","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=polar-bears"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/00Polar-Bear-Paul-Nicklen-NG.jpg?fit=1190%2C785&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/00Polar-Bear-Paul-Nicklen-NG.jpg?fit=1190%2C785&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/00Polar-Bear-Paul-Nicklen-NG.jpg?fit=1190%2C785&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/00Polar-Bear-Paul-Nicklen-NG.jpg?fit=1190%2C785&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/00Polar-Bear-Paul-Nicklen-NG.jpg?fit=1190%2C785&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":214945,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=214945","url_meta":{"origin":306778,"position":4},"title":"Grizzly on the shore of W. Hudson Bay and two tagged polar bears still on sea ice on 17 August","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/22\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Before this, polar bear experts looked at the sea ice conditions in the 1980s and figured that was what polar bears absolutely required","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-941.png?fit=1200%2C820&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-941.png?fit=1200%2C820&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-941.png?fit=1200%2C820&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-941.png?fit=1200%2C820&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-941.png?fit=1200%2C820&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":224607,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=224607","url_meta":{"origin":306778,"position":5},"title":"Western Hudson Bay polar bears waiting for the sea ice to freeze as tourists flock to watch","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/19\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Should only be a few weeks more until the ice forms along the western shore of Hudson Bay, it\u2019s already been snowing.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-912.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-912.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-912.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-912.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-912.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306778","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=306778"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306778\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":306786,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306778\/revisions\/306786"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/306784"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=306778"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=306778"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=306778"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}